USDA’s hotly anticipated June 28 acreage report had analysts holding their breath for a few extra minutes while the agency sorted out some technical difficulties. But when the data finally arrived, it caused some significant commodity price shifts – particularly in corn, with plantings exceeding the entire range of trade guesses.

Soybean plantings were closer to the mark but still came in moderately below analyst expectations. Winter wheat plantings were also below the average trade guess in today’s report.

Corn

USDA pegs 2024 corn plantings at 91.5 million acres, which is more than a million acres above the agency’s prior estimate in March but more than 3 million acres below final 2023 tallies. Grain markets took bigger notice of today’s number versus analyst estimates. The average estimate was for 90.353 million acres, with trade guesses ranging between 89.0 million and 91.3 million acres. As a result, corn futures stumbled 5% lower in the minutes immediately following the report’s release.

Soybeans

Soybean acres are projected to move 3% higher from 2023 to 2024, with 86.1 million acres. That was a bit below the average trade guess of 86.753 million acres. It was also below USDA’s prior projection of 86.510 million acres that the agency made in late March.

Wheat

Wheat acres are also expected to decline this season, with all-wheat plantings now projected at 47.2 million acres. That’s a 5% decline from 2023/24. Analysts were expecting to see a slightly larger footprint after offering an average trade guess of 47.657 million acres.

Of the total, USDA reports winter wheat plantings at 33.8 million acres, spring wheat plantings at 11.3 million acres and durum plantings at 2.17 million acres.

U.S. plantings of major crops for 2024 harvest (in millions of acres)

Stocks increase 22-23% YOY

USDA also released its latest grain stocks data on Friday.

Corn stocks as of June 1, 2024 totaled 4.99 billion bushels, which is a 22% increase versus June 1, 2023. Of that total, 3.03 billion bushels are being stored on-farm, with off-farm stocks at 1.97 billion bushels. Disappearance between March and May totaled 3.36 billion bushels, which is slightly higher than 3.29 billion bushels over the same period a year ago.

Soybean stocks through June 1, 2024 were at 970 million bushels, which is a year-over-year increase of 22%. Of that total, 466 million bushels are being stored on-farm, with off-farm stocks at 504 million bushels. Disappearance between March and May reached 875 million bushels, which was a 2% decline from last year.

Old-crop all-wheat stocks as of June 1, 2024 were at 702 million bushels, which is a year-over-year increase of 23%. Of that total, 139 million bushels are being stored on-farm, with the remaining 563 million bushels stored off-farm. Disappearance between March and May totaled 387 million bushels, which is a year-over-year increase of 4%.

USDA quarterly stocks, as of June 1 (in billions of bushels)