As of Oct. 1, the corn for grain yield in Illinois was expected to drop 14 bushels from the Sept. 1 forecast to 160 bushels per acre.

The final production would be 1.98 billion bushels, 3% less than last year's crop. As of Oct. 3, 74% of the crop was harvested which compares to 5% last year at this time and a five year average of 31%. This year's harvest progress is just 1 point behind the record level of 75% in 1991 and advanced throughout the month of September right at that pace.

The Oct. 1 forecast yield for soybeans was expected to be 52 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from the Sept. 1 estimate. Production was expected to total 470.6 million bushels, 9% above last year.  Acres planted and harvested were revised down to 9.1 and 9.05 million, 200,000 less than the previous estimates.

As of Oct. 3, 50% of the crop had been harvested compared to 5% last year and the five-year average of 28%.

The final yield for the 2010 winter wheat crop was 56 bushels per acre, the same as last year's yield. Acreage seeded in the fall of 2009 was 330 thousand acres, down 520 thousand acres from 2009, making this the lowest planted acreage on record.

Farmers harvested 295 thousand acres for grain this year, another record low, down 64% from last year. This resulted in a total production of 16.5 million bushels, 64% less than the 2009 production.

This large decline in acreage was caused by the second wettest October on record, which delayed corn, soybean, and sorghum harvest and prevented many producers from seeding wheat. The previous record lows occurred in 2005 when there were 630 thousand acres seeded and 600 thousand acres harvested for grain.  

U.S. Production

Corn production is forecast at 12.7 billion bushels, down 4% from the September forecast and down 3% from last year's record production of 13.1 billion bushels.

Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 155.8 bushels per acre, down 6.7 bushels from the previous month and 8.9 bushels below last year's record of 164.7 bushels.

Forecasted yields decreased from last month throughout much of the Corn Belt and Tennessee Valley. Illinois showed the largest decline, down 14 bushels per acre. Indiana and Iowa are both down 10 bushels from the previous month, while Missouri and Nebraska declined 9 bushels per acre.

Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.3 million acres, up less than 1% from the September forecast. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.41 billion bushels, down 2% from September but 1% above last year. Based on Sept. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 44.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month but up 0.4 bushel from last year.

Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower or unchanged in all major-producing States except Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, New York, and Wisconsin. The largest decreases in yield from last month are expected in North Carolina and Virginia, down 5 and 4 bushels, respectively.

If realized, the forecasted yields in Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, and Wisconsin will be record highs and the forecasted yield in Minnesota will tie the previous record high.

Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 76.8 million acres, down 1% from the previous estimate but up 1% from 2009. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data.

All wheat production totaled 2.22 billion bushels in 2010, down 2% from the August forecast but up slightly from 2009. Grain area is 47.7 million acres, down 4% from last year.

The United States yield is a record high 46.7 bushels per acre, 2.3 bushels higher than last year and 1.8 bushels higher than the previous record set in 2008.

The levels of production and changes from last year by type are: winter wheat, 1.49 billion bushels, down 3%; other spring wheat, 627 million bushels, up 7%; Durum wheat, 111 million bushels, up 2%.