Afternoon Recap by Bob Burgdorfer

Corn closes at 5-month low as weather outlook improves

Published on: Apr 24, 2015

April 24, 2015

Corn closed at a 5-month low on Friday and lower for the week as Midwest planting should accelerate next week as forecasts show drier weather then and through early May.

Soybeans finished lower as Brazil's soybean exports should not be disrupted by a truck strike. Wheat futures tumbled, with Kansas City's hard red winter setting contract lows, as rain in the central and southern Plains should improve the crop.

Outside markets were mixed. The Dow Jones industrials were about 15 points higher helped by good earnings from Amazon, Google and Microsoft.. Crude oil was down about 50 cents a barrel, gold was off $17.70 an ounce and the dollar was down for the third day.

Corn dropped 6 to 7 cents a bushel, with May posting the lowest close for a lead month since November, on fund selling as Midwest farmers may finally get some dry weather to plant the crop.

The National Weather Service's 6- to 10-day forecast shows a dry pattern for the Midwest beginning next week that should allow corn planting to progress. In addition, the forecasts now show increased chances for normal to above-normal temperatures, a change from earlier this week when they favored below-normal temperatures then.

A longer term forecast showed dry conditions lasting through the first week of May.

The USDA crop progress report on Monday should show planting up from last week's 9%. A year ago, the five-year average for that date was 28% planted.

Bird flu in U.S. poultry flocks continues to hang over the market as millions of birds have been destroyed. Jim Sumner, president of USA Poultry and Egg Export Council told Farm Futures on Friday the outbreaks are "like nothing we have ever experienced before."

Argentina added to the bearish news this week by saying it was ramping up corn exports. USDA estimates Argentina's corn harvest at 24 million metric tons, up 500,000 from its previous forecast but down from the previous crop's 26 million. 

CBOT estimated Friday's futures volume at 422,245 compared with Thursday's actual of 499,178. A Reuters poll said funds sold a net 12,000 contracts, the largest so far this month.

May corn closed down 6-1/4 cents at $3.64-1/2 per bushel and July dropped 7 to $3.69-3/4. New-crop December was off 6-1/4 at $3.88-1/4.

What to Look For – Drier weather should arrive late next week and last through the first week of May. Planting progress in Monday's USDA report will be watched. A year ago 19% of the crop was planted then and the five-year average was 28%.

Soybeans closed lower for the day, but finished up one tick for the week.

News the Brazilian truck strike lacked broad participation sidelined soybean buyers in Chicago who thought a strong and widespread strike could slow Brazilian soybean export.

The weakened truck strike, the bird flu cases, big soybean harvests in South America and end-of–the week positioning combined to take soybeans down.

Technically, the actively traded July for the second straight day fell short of testing resistance at the 50-day average near $9.87. The contract finished well under the 100- and 200-day averages.

Light soybean planting occurred in parts of Iowa this week, but farmers largely focused on corn. USDA will add soybean planting progress in next week's weekly crop progress summary.

May soybeans settled down 8-1/2 cents at $9.69-3/4 per bushel and July fell 9-1/4 to $9.70-3/4. New-crop November dropped 9 to $9.52-1/2.

CBOT estimated Friday's soybean volume at 177,473, compared with Thursday's actual of 244,771. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts.

What to Look For – The first soybean planting report of the season lands on Monday. A year ago 3% were planted and five-year average was at 4%.

Wheat futures closed lower, pressured by the lower corn and soybeans and by improved moisture in the Plains wheat areas.

Contract lows were set in all of the Kansas City hard red winter wheat months, while SRW's July came within 3 cents of its contract low

Traders likely will expect some improvement from last week's 42% good to excellent rating for wheat and in Kansas' 26% good to excellent.

Estimated volume in Chicago's soft red winter wheat on Friday was 95,847, compared with Thursday's actual of 116,269.

May SRW closed down 11-3/4 cents at $4.86 per bushel and July fell 12-3/4 to $4.88-1/2.

Kansas City's May HRW dropped 14-1/4 to $5.02-1/4 and July fell 14-1/2 to $5.07-1/2.

Spring wheat for May fell 10-1/4 at $5.35 and July dropped 10 to $5.45-1/4.

What to Look For – The latest crop condition ratings come out after Monday's close and traders will look to see if there was enough rain to help hard red winter wheat.

Afternoon Recap by Bob Burgdorfer

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This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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  1. Capullo says:

    Any idea where I can ge a copy of the China Agricultural Outlook 2015/2024?

  2. j. holleman says:

    just wanted to know what corn exports had to do with the price of corn as you didn't state the weekly numbers. thought i heard they were above last weeks numbers.

  3. sand plain farmer says:

    How many experts predicted that China would stockpile at these bargain prices? I'll bet that they're throwing out rotten corn and filling the bins with beans. China is now buying crude oil at fire-sale prices, too. Smart.

  4. sand plain farmer says:

    If logistics is the explanation for the recent price surge, explain why 2015 new crop is following upwards too. Something else is going on.

    • Chris Lehner says:

      It is speculative trading and nobody should kid themselves the majority of trading wasn't speculative. The algorithmic traders had a hay day(s) in October.

  5. sand plain farmer says:

    A combine can cut beans and corn, but not at the same time. The harvest window is getting smaller.

  6. sand plain farmer says:

    Cool and dry makes small beans.

  7. Wondering how says:

    What trading platform is the most reliable and bug free for active trading? Where can I get free active market pricing, depth, and charts?

  8. Wondering how says:

    How do active traders get the information during the day as to who is buying and what is moving the market?

  9. sand plain farmer says:

    The soybean/corn price ratio is "startling"? Maybe to an analyst. The world wants protein, there's more protein in a boatload of soybeans than corn or wheat.

  10. sand plain farmer says:

    I also wonder about the recent expansion of storage. If someone built it, they're looking for something to fill it. Here and Asia, too. Commodities are generally priced in Greenbacks. Washington has been trying to "paper over" the world's problems. This rally may be more about equilibrium between commodities and the expanding money supply.

  11. Farmguy says:

    You and me both brother. Traders are so caught up in the Ukraine situation they may be missing something closer to home. Winter wheat has no reason to survive Midwest wide. I suppose in a few weeks we will know more. Ukraine, however, is not only the first thing in the wheat problem category.

  12. sand plain farmer says:

    I'd like to take advantage of today's rally to sell some new crop wheat, but it's buried under ice right now. Wait and see.

  13. Phuriouz says:

    Every market analist has his own way of telling the story, i just want to say i really appreciate the way Tom Leffler is doing the job. Especially the cold facts in the beginning of the commentary mentioning the upcoming data to look out for, chicago trade times etc. is helpful and giving a bit rest in this crazy markets. Thanks

  14. Glen says:

    given the total fiasco of this obama care law and implementation of it does anyone really believe these government reports are truthful now

    • John Magnusson says:

      Somewhere along the line you are going to have to trust someone's numbers when it comes to stocks, planting intentions, exports and world production. As much as you hate Obama, he doesn't have his fingers in the Ag numbers. So, who do you trust, the US Ag Department or somebody who has a stake in the business and markets. Such as a Monsanto, ADM, Cargill or your broker.

  15. SE Farmer says:

    "Conab, the Brazilian government reporting agency, announced a reduction in expected corn acres to 16.3 million this year, down 617,500 from last year. They remain bullish on yields, as the crop is expected to be near last year’s record crop if weather is good." Is it somewhere in agricultural bylaws of agricultural reporting that every bullish comment should be followed immediately by a bearish one? We can't get off the soapbox of this year's record corn crop and now we are reporting about Brazil's expected record crop. It seems that beans are the only thing right now that USDA hasn't been able get price down. I can see it plain as day now, "US to plant all time record number of soybeans in 14' combined with expected record harvest!"

  16. d. hovda says:

    you farmers still remember the usda bullfertilizer of 1980s dairy buyout( bonanza) . that is when usda put out propaganda to enhance the democrat gov endorsement of the Carter adm. Hilary said it was some Refco crook and Tysoon chicken put up the margin money, usda put out a bunch of embeleshed bullshxxxxx, wrong numbers ,wrong dates and on and on etc. then hit them on a Friday. limit down cattle market for14 days locked limit. that was the end of family farmers feeding cattle at 19% intrest rates. So get over it; the farmers are still paying off those loses with after tax income as the IRS will not let you deduct the losses. thank you Hilary and IRS.

  17. vafarmer says:

    Best thing we farmesr can do is keep our mouths shut. Let the numbers flow from the scale houses. If asked about your crop simply say "you've been at the beach and aint seen it in a month and have no idea what it looks like". Speculators and USDA will go slap nuts!!!!!!!!

  18. So MN says:

    Don't worry John Doe Farmer the USDA has spoken and we have a massive crop.

  19. John Doe Farmer says:

    How dumb are these traders at the CBOT ? The growing season is over fella's! To late for rain to do any good now .. And by the way, we got nothing here in Sw Mn anyhow. Remember that heat wave the last couple weeks? Pretty much toasted everything....

  20. John Doe Farmer says:

    Crop in late ..cold temps for a couple months..way behind in developement and harvest is upon us first week of September in the "Southern Midwest" ?? Wow. !

  21. sand plain farmer says:

    If we sold as much as we've been told to sell,we'd have nothing left to sell. That would make the commercial end of the business very happy,because then we'd get to throw in our crop insurance checks,too. Happy to see the short sellers with their heads on fire.

  22. John Doe Farmer says:

    Local headline in paper "Mn Farmers Second Biggest Crop Ever" !! We are so far behind here in Sw Mn it's not funny. Finally got a 2 in rain last weekend after 6 weeks with zero precip. Corn needs heat now and we have had none for the last three weeks . Corn is at a standistill. Looking like black layer on some into early -mid October at this rate. Beans are a joke. Can't wait for the competitors crop tour next week !! Hey and how about todays news ..3.5 Million prevent plant acres !! Really..golly how did that sneak up on us ??

  23. kurt says:

    This cool weather might be good for pollination but the flip side is it's pushing maturity further and further behind. To say we need a REAL late frost is an understatement.

  24. ILfarmer says:

    To 7/18 3:50pm I am confused. You say: "My corn is burning up in the fields" but then say: "I have lots of new bin space and all of it will be used." If your crop will be that damaged/low yield, how will "new bin space" be filled?

  25. B. Hapka says:

    The next weather scare in MN is the "F" word. Lows in the 40's tonite in July. Frost could show up by August 30 quite easily or would damage a lot of late plantings even freezing September 10.

  26. Anonymous says:

    I tell ya as farmers we got some educating to do.Got a couple daughters that are through college.One is a Doctor and the other has been working in Vegas for a couple years. In Vegas she gets so pissed by how stupid people are when it comes to farming,,, She's a bartender so has to shoot the sh*t with a lot of people. When she mentions she was raised on a farm in Mn and her dad farms people go nuts ! Does he raise GMO corn? Does he sell corn to Wal Mart ? ??!! She was home this weekend and took a pic of one of my fields and posted on Facebook cause it was so beatuiful to her instead of the desert she is living in. First reply "GMO Corn ..gross" ..And a lot of anti Monsanto stuff after that. The people have NO idea what farming even is now and some think we still wear bib overalls and use horse's yet!! I When she tells 'em Dad plants with a satellite they look at her like she's from Mars! City people have NO clue where there food comes from. On another subject here in SW Mn we have gone a month we no rain.. It's looking like a repeat of last year, stuff is hurting and if no rain quick we are in trouble. Going to pollinate this week, as far as soybeans they are short and are not going to make nothing even close to trendline USDA bs yield.

  27. Anonymous says:

    Traders are trading a weather model that said it "supposed to rain". Like you corn in my area is showing a lot of stress. Question is how much damage has been done? I don't know what their smoking but whatever it is their smoking a lot of it.

  28. Anonymous says:

    Most farmers are in a different position than they were in last year. They don't have to sell their new crop grain for what is being offered because they are in good shape financially. They can sit on their grain and let the market come to them. One thing about farmers is that they spend money when they make it. build new buildings, upgrade equipment, etc.. Just think what our countries economy would look like if farming wasn't doing as well as it has the last few years. A healthy ag economy is good for this country.

  29. Anonymous says:

    My corn is burning up in the fields and ever day the corn prices go down more. What are these traders smoking? I have lots of new bin space and all of it will be used.

  30. Anonymous says:

    Just my two cents. The RR gene is taking what nature has naturally and inserted this gene into a crop. The good Lord developed the RR gene on his own. People look at GMO as the devil. Not only are they able to insert the RR gene, but also able to take drought resistant genes, yielding genes, stand-ability genes, genes to reduce lodging, genes to withstand hotter temps during pollination, etc and insert these into crops. This in turn increases yields. I am by no means an advocate for Monsanto, but round up is made of simple carbon, hydrogen, oxygen and phosphorous made up into a weak acid. Once it hits the ground all become inert. And Yes round up is absorbed into the RR plant. THe gene just allows the plant to process the chemical out of its system. How many other plants already contain simple carbon, hydrogen, oxygen and phosphorous. How many of you people eat rice? You probably are eating Arsenic at the same time. Most everything you eat has trace Arsenic in it, "and is known in the state of California to cause cancer". Also people that live in cities drink water that contains Chlorine or Florine, that in the right quantities are "known in the state of California to cause birth defects and cancer". The point is without technology in the Agriculture industry we won't be able to feed the world.

  31. Anonymous says:

    9:13pm, Mam make no mistake, I am not defending GMO. I am only pointing out why it was approved and such a mainstream of today's production. Business wise, I wish we did not have it, but I realize why we do. My wife will agree with you on the health questions it raises, but sometimes precieved evils are neccessary. For argument sake, If a live span is shortened by 10 years because of neccessary food evils, that is better than death by starvation at age 8 or less. I myself raise non GMO beans to buck the system, but I realize why we have them also. As a producer, thanks for your heritage and stance. Your stance does have a place in the big picture of what we once were, and where we are going.

  32. Anonymous says:

    They didnt take the DNA of roundup and put it with the DNA of a soybean, they took the natural resistance to roundup found in other plants DNA and put it in the DNA of the soybean to make it resistant also. The 27 other countries who wont buy it is because they want there people to support ther own countries agriculture.

  33. Anonymous says:

    To the producer- I understand that you feel that you feed the masses and many would go hungry if it wasn't for the GMO grains, but I have read a lot on the subject and if GMO grains are so good why do 27 other countries refuse to purchase it? I would think that 27 countries opting out not to buy it would make it less in demand and your price "discovery method" goes down in market prices. I still believe the a farmer should be able to put a price on what they produce, and the board of trade should have no part in deciding that price. I eat organic for the healthy issues, I don't want to be fed something that has not even been researched enough to know the out come of it yet. How can taking the DNA of roundup "which we both know is a chemical" and putting it with the DNA of a soybean, be healthy? for humans, animals and good for the environment. My grandpa farmed all of his life, nothing big- 900 acres which would be considered now days as a hobby farmer, he also raised hogs and cows and after he died, my husband and I did it. We never had to use growth hormones in our herd productions and we had the basic equipment, nothing big or fancy and our crops yielded as good as the neighbors and our pigs and calves sold has good has the ones that used the growth hormones. It was a hard days work but a rewarding one. We sold out just as round up ready beans were coming into the scene. I don't regret those days because they were good times, but I would not want to be in farming today with the dog eat dog way things are now.

  34. Anonymous says:

    As a producer, I have no problem with our current structure of price discovery if it was not corrupt. That is my gripe with USDA, I just want the truth and let the chips fall. As far as GMO, pesticides, hormones and such, you need to think it all the way through (and maybe you have). USDA approves all that for the good (or what they see it as) of the consumer. That all helps in high production to enable the masses to be fed. If all producers were organic we would produce roughly half. Yes, demand would increase our price to compensate the producer, but many would go hungry. The consumers lucky enough to afford and find the small supply would be going broke to feed themselves. I guess producers could organize and do this but many of us do take pride in feeding so many, wether we get a pat on the back or not. Or, even if we have to hear comments like "your GMO grain" in a negative way. If you prefer organic than by all means that is perfectly fine, but for the masses, it simply is not reality. Just a fair read on what we produce is all this farmer wants and let a non corrupt market find my price. I will use my management to take it from there.

  35. Anonymous says:

    Also I would like to add that I don't eat your GMO grain, I buy organic-- also don't like the hormone induced antibiotic meat that is produced that is feed with GMO grain. I buy organic~

  36. Anonymous says:

    I see a lot of you disgruntled with the USDA, which rightfully you should be .My question to all of you, is where were you 25-30 years ago? when the NFO tried to ban farmers together to stand up for your selves. Back then if the farmers would have stayed together they could have named their own price for their crops. How many businesses do you know that does not put a price on their product? When you buy that tractor, combine, fuel, fertilizer ect. ect. ect. it all has a price tag on it. A farmers business of crops, livestock ect. should be no different. Crops, cattle hogs and everything that is decided by trading has never been right and never will be. Seems to me"more" doesn't make up for prices traded to get a price for what you have raised and it seems if there was less planted and raised demand would be higher and the price would go up.

  37. Anonymous says:

    Sorry, this is sad. All eyes on a ho hum USDA report while so much more to report on. Farm Futures, step up and report something besides the USDA given. I buy many of your advertiseres products, maybe I need to talk to them.

  38. Anonymous says:

    The usda is as much as an embarrassment as the IRS scandal and every other scandal under this administration. They can say whatever they want and not be held accountable. They should be abolished just like the IRS. Has anyone ever found out where they mysteriously found the 400 million bushels of corn back in March? How about how you come up with 97 million acres of corn when the crop insurance company's are saying between 4-5 million went to prevent? They know we didn't plant that many acres but that was the only thing they could come up with to manipulate the markets.

  39. Anonymous says:

    Don't worry Janell, nobody wants to comment here because everybody is taking the USDA as last year. Can't wait to hear the...." everybody knew we had a late crop and mudded it in, what did you expect comments". That's what the "analyst" will say when we march higher after the blasphemy from our crooks in DC is found out. Sure Indiana and Ohio and the SE is gonna save us from a sub 14 BILLION BUSHEL CROP! Give me a break!

  40. Anonymous says:

    "Farm" Futures. Please call some crop insurance adjusters and large seed companies. Report what is truth than what is farse. If not, call yourselves "Trader", "USDA", "CBOT", "Corzine" or "Blumeburg", Futures. You should be ashamed to so call represent "Farm". Report and analise the truth through real research instead of what you are doing. 160 bu. corn and 45 bu. beans on your acres is imbarrasing for your being and real ag. Change your name or actually investigate the truth.

  41. Janell Thomas says:

    Hi all - apologies for spam comments on this forum. We're trying to keep the area free of comments unrelated to commodity markets. We appreciate your input. Janell, Farm Futures E-Content Editor

  42. Anonymous says:

    The difference between you and China is you probably sold too much grain without even knowing what you were going to produce then had a bad crop. China buys grain at a certain price then if the prices goes lower they cancel what they bought and then rebuy it back at a lower price, if the prices go up well so what they bought it at a lower price. Anybody who forward sells grain without knowing what your going to produce is taking a big risk.

  43. Anonymous says:

    To the 7:06PM post. It's hard to blame china for not honoring a contract, when I didn't have the grain to honor a lot of my own contracts last year.

  44. Anonymous says:

    The 7:21a.m. is exactly right. That's what should be done but then the usda wouldn't be able to manipulate the prices. How long before China cancels the corn, and beans they bought a while back now that prices have come down so they can buy them back at a much lower price? Must be nice not having to honor a contract.

  45. Anonymous says:

    All of this reporting needs to be turned over to the FSA, they have the acre numbers and Crop insurance has the yield numbers, no speculation needed!! Only two reports are needed, first one, July 1, acreage planted, and December 1, yield numbers from crop insurance. That would put a stop to all this crap so we would know the truth.

  46. Anonymous says:

    It's too bad the government is broke or we should give these USDA workers a raise. It's simply amazing how close they came to their so-called survey findings from March. So few people polled but so much at stake. It's also fantastic that even with the stocks 200 million lower than the trade expected very little changed but throw in 300 million more than expected that evidently wasn't there to begin with and watch the market crash $1.00 in three days. The whole government is corrupt. We all know how many of us would still be in business if we managed our operations this piss poor. It all starts with Obama and everyone on the east and west coasts that voted for this horseshit bunch of lies and betrayal. What a disgrace for the whole country.

  47. Anonymous says:

    What's everyone so mad about with this report? When did $5.00 corn become dirt cheap anyway. Can you say commodity BUBBLE. We all knew the good time wouldn't last forever. Nothing last forever.

  48. Anonymous says:

    97.4 million acres of corn?? wonder how many USDA employees were short dec corn today? what a bunch of corrupt fools

  49. Anonymous says:

    Just saw a Bloomberg byline cross that mentioned a "survey shows more cotton acreage than previously reported. No joke! All during and before cotton planting in the south, corn was threatening to go to 4.00 Dec and the Dec Cotton was staring 85cents in the face. What do you think you would plant if you had a 250k to 600k piece of equipment that can only do one single job on your farm under the shed with a FAT payment due(that would be the cottonpicker) ??? You would plant cotton, but Uncle Sam and all the experts agreed that we would cut back on cotton acreage to guessed it...corn or soybeans. Some joke if you're in south, but hey the South doesn't matter right?

  50. Anonymous says:

    11:26 AM, Your right, no big surprise but thanks for reporting. Problem is, the folks with morals quit while the cronies stay and minipulate more to further themselves. Disgusting is an understatement. If you see your nieghbors friend, pass on a true felt Thank you for his lost efforts in a corrupt US govt. as most true Americans would do the same. Something hard to come by evidently these days. I just got a call from the USDA for a survey. I politely told the young women that if the information would be reported accuretly, I would certainly part take. However, it would not, so I declined like so many other producers. This crap sickens me as an American. When can we get back to something that represents the truth? Signing off as fed the hell up with this crap and time for so called analysts to do their job. Outside of the box is not outside if you are freakin right.

  51. Anonymous says:

    FYI my neighbor's friend used to work for the usda and his job was to find out information on different things before their reports. He told us they would "make up" their own number to try and keep the market in check. It bothered him so much how they would lie and come up with phony numbers, that he eventually quit. I'm sure this doesn't come to anyone's surprise that the usda would do this. This is market manipulation and corruption at it's best.

  52. Anonymous says:

    The so called "profit taking" just goes to show how the funds manipulate the markets.

  53. Anonymous says:

    Makes me want to cringe when I hear the anal ists say another round of profit taking. What a sweet set-up,I know I have chosen the wrong end of the so called profit taking,after 39 years of farming.

  54. Anonymous says:

    On PBS and there News Hour they had a piece on California dairies. It was a well done piece by a true city slicker. The reporter made mention of a bunch of big dairies going down. Now if you don't have 2 or 3 thousand cow herd your not going to make it. Back in the 70's there were dairy farms everywhere. There was the owner and one or two hired men. They had wealth and owned land and cattle, put there kids through college. Milk got just below cost of production. So the race was on to get bigger. Well today they got bigger and are still trying to get bigger still. Now they are so big that if there is a decrease in the cash flow of the operation they are gone too. Plus today it still takes 1 man to 40 to 50 head of cattle to make it go. The wealth is held by 1 person plus they have to deal with CAFO problems and the govt. Is adding to that. But the only thing here is this ball of wax that is constant. From 1960 to now, cow numbers milking are about the same. Cow owners should be put on the federal endangered species list. Where there was thousands there are the few and very brave.

  55. Anonymous says:

    Well it looks like the people who bring crop insurance are going to need to fix something!!.. That is your yield or APH. It seems to be getting smaller every year on your, the farmer end. That is going to have to come up or Congress will be writing than other disaster bill to fill the short comings. Here is something to think about? With your APH falling for the last few years. And if you are at say 70% and you are at 100 bu. APH. Better do the math. I don't think there are going to be some farmers to happy with what they discovered. I ran my own numbers and mudded it really late like 1st of July corn was beating PP. Myself I like late corn better than beans. Lately the last few years it has paid better.

  56. Anonymous says:

    Well after that USDA report I can relax a little. I guess I actually did plant all intended corn acres. I guess I really didnt loose any to ponding or stand counts. Heck, even with all the problems, my production is only going to be down 1.5 bu. per acre from nearly record yield. This is great news because I sure thought from my experience it was a lot worse than that. Sure glad I have big brother setting me straight.

  57. Anonymous says:

    I spoke with a friend in northwest ND today. Yesterday, they stopped seeding...I say "stopped" seeding, not finished seeding because they have decided to leave 320 acres unseeded. It is way late to be seeding small grains in NW ND. It's been unbelievably wet in ND.

  58. Anonymous says:

    We are still trying to plant around the water holes in Iowa. Might get 80% planted in the mud today. Rather have the seed in the bag than replant like many are now realizing they will be doing. 2013 crop is very close to being a disaster. Traders will realize this when crop progress reports keep worsening again like last year. Probably be August before USDA finally gets it. No matter Traders destroyed export demand. Or maybe there is just no corn to even source in the USA. Anyone selling new crop for a cash price of $5 when breakeven on production is $5-5.50 needs to find a new line of work. And yes Obama and his Chicago group are the biggest liars on the face of the Earth.

  59. Anonymous says:

    Yes an early frost and snow this fall should top off an ugly yr, oh and plus a cut in crop ins payouts .Doom and Gloom its already done just sit back and except it and wait for next yr, Here in Mich we have had 20 in of rain since April 1,nornally thats 7 months worth of rain.

  60. Anonymous says:

    Guys there is only one thing to do now. THAT IS DON'T SELL ANY NEW CROP. DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT UNTIL OCTOBER. IF THERE ARE NO SALES BEING MADE BASIS WILL GO UP. THAT'S BEING DONE RIGHT NOW. SO TAKE THE SUMMER OFF AND ENJOY IT. TAKE CARE OF WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE ON THE FARM. Burn some steak and relax. Burn some steak with your crew a few times this summer at the shop. It will help settle them down too. If it is like this this fall you don't need half crazed people on the mud pull harvest.

  61. Anonymous says:

    To 6-11-2013 with the onion colored corn. When corn turns onion color - blue or blue gray the same color as a onion leaf. Well that corn plant is just about out of water on the inside and can die. If rain comes it will start to grow again but it will never be right or yield very well. Better call the crop adjuster.

  62. Anonymous says:

    The USDA has been a scandal since 2008 and is more harmful than all the others combined. Just 1 percent of the populous cares though so I won't hold my breath for a congressional hearing on it. They would just lie under oath anyway. These people effecting our lives have zero morals and ethics and it is getting real old.

  63. Anonymous says:

    The man has not had a job in his life so work is a four letter word, you must work , in others, ie .White House, USDA etc , etc can draw pay checks, and Fat Cats ie Traders can grow rich , based on a bunch of blatant lies on a report that is worthless, toilet paper is worth more at least it can be put to a useful purpose, This administration is a DISGRACE , what are the proceedings to institute impeachment ?

  64. Anonymous says:

    Did traders really think USDA would reduce planted acres at this point? Not sure if they ever will. I shoulda took time off from doing my work this morning and shorted the market. Make more money on that than on the actual farming. Corn here is in good shape other than some fields haven't got all N yet. Beans are two faced, early planted beans look good, late planted beans are still coming up if the clods allow them.

  65. Anonymous says:

    If only traders would wake up and understand that these reports are absolutley irelevent at this point ! Talk about market manipulation. We have NO GDU's to speak of on top of the late start ..rains every other day..stand issues with no emergance in spots. Lots of beans not in the ground yet. My agronomist said we are at least 4 weeks behind on growth .. with beans just emerging on June 12 ..Corn is small with no growth and now looks like some severe yellowing. My God people wake up ! It's gonna take a miracle to even get close to a so called normal crop here in Mn and Iowa..

  66. Anonymous says:

    The usda did not want to be left out with all the scandals going on in Washington so they came up with their own with this BS report today. We still have 125 mb of beans left and were supposedly going to have a record 44.5 bpa when we still have 20 million+ acres of beans to plant? Let's not forget the 97 million acres of corn? How stupid can you be unless your manipulating the market to push your agenda? Can't wait for the next report in a few weeks.

  67. Anonymous says:

    just the opposite in south central Nebraska. 114 dregrees on the bank and 30 mph winds with gust to 55. ALL but A few irrigated fields wheat has been zeroed out and cut for hay or silage. the local agronomist says he has seen the corn three different colors today. what is onion colored corn?

  68. Anonymous says:

    Traders listen because it is their favour to have the market talked down, now the opportunity is there to buy and cash in later, they are not stupid, they know the position, or if they don't then they are really dumb, typical manoeuvring, the analyst group must have a sore butt from sitting on the fence ?

  69. Anonymous says:

    Traders listening to the USDA is like having your dentist give you a colonoscopy. Can listen to the results if you want, but it is useless and wrong.

  70. Anonymous says:

    Beans and some corn left, south central MN, right on the state line. Some beans went into very poor mudding conditions last week. Lots of corn that did not receive pre-emergent herbicide or nitrogen, too wet to spray or side dress. 1" of fresh rain, more in the forecast. There will be prevent plant decisions being made this week around here.

  71. Anonymous says:

    I gave up on trying to replant. It's too wet and getting to be too late. Lots of beans left to be planted or should I say mudded in. Central MN.

  72. Anonymous says:

    Replanted second time June 8th.,weather man calling for 2-3 inches of rain day after tomorrow.Self proclaimed know-it-alls might find it necessary to revise their production forcasts.Looks like the weather decided to idle 10%. Ohio.

  73. Anonymous says:

    Still not done planting beans yet, more rain, just under 2 inches. Beans we did plant last week were not all planted in good soil conditions. Others around us in the same boat, still some water soaked acres to plant to beans. USDA won't adjust anything. This is NOT going to be a bumper crop year!! From Southwest IA.

  74. Anonymous says:

    The next usda report will useless because a lot has happened since they did their survey. They're going to have to mysteriously "find" more grain somewhere or lessen demand to make their numbers come out. Since their the best in the business at lying and making up phony numbers i'm sure this report won't be any different.

  75. Anonymous says:

    Great stuff, right on, how many have their head screwed on the right way ?

  76. Anonymous says:

    Yes,indeed.Next week's reports will reflect current challenges like a funhouse mirror.USDA projections of any kind should be ignored.We need to establish a cooperative network of farmers for data gathering,paid for by farmers via membership fees.Shouldn't cost much at all,just need some folks willing to do it honestly.

  77. Anonymous says:

    I had to go elsewhere to find it but corn at 91 percent, beans at 57 percent. Uhhh... Call me slow but that is bad for yield. Don't sell a darn thing, old or new crop. Just my take as a real producer since 1987. I realize many have more years than I, but I'm still here and done well.

  78. Anonymous says:

    I do remember 1993. In fact that was my huge year to kick off a career when everybody (bankers) told me to go to the factory.I bought out two partners that fled after we all lost our butt in 1991. Huge payments and a shoe string of "darnit, it will happen". Planted 90 percent of 1800 (with a 15 foot drill, plus 600 acres of custom) acres to beans and the Mississippi flooded. Tore the heck out of a lot of people but I'm in Indiana on dry soils and produced 58 bu. average on that 90 percent. I recall 9 dollar beans and low cost then and made out huge. Thats Why Im here today instead of bolting on car fenders at Subaru. Most true farmers have a story similar, which is why we can see through bull when we see it. Risk...hell yes...reward...IF MOTHER NATURE PLAYS OUR HAND... which is why we seen this coming.

  79. Anonymous says:

    I had a total hail loss on all but one field of beans last year. I replanted from June 10-15 with a full season bean and harvested the middle of October with 59+ bph irrigated beans. however, I was blessed with perfect weather to make that work. the final chapter will be written with how warm this fall is. an early frost, after a cool, wet, summer would be devastating. anyone remember 1993?

  80. Anonymous says:

    OK Guys, if you want to make money this year??? Get it in the ground if you can. Sell a little bit to pay the bills. BIN UP THE REST. You thought last year was a short year for grain. Be very thankful the the grain markets haven't gone ape shit. If it keeps up like it is. There will be barges of grain being pushed up the river from New Orleans along with the usual fertilizer. Now I told that I am a blunt stick in the pile. But here is something you sharp sticks can start to think about. I also was the one 2 or 3 months ago predicted this wet spring when everyone else was all ate up with dry weather and you couldn't float a barge down the Mississippi river because it was the lowest ever recorded. Here's where the blunt stick comes in. About 2 weeks ago I sold beans for $14.48 cash. Good money, was getting in a rash to sell. If I just waited 1 more week I could have got $15.30 for those same beans. This seems to be the year that it pays to wait. Over in China, soybeans on the dock are $21.50 a bushel and then feed to a pig do they can eat bacon.

  81. Anonymous says:

    Looks like the mother nature is doing her best to " IDLE 10". What happened to the 160+ yield & 2billion+ carryover the usda said we've have this year? Not to mention the record soybean crop. Around June 20th the days start getting shorter, not good when we have close to half the beans left to plant. Looks like we'll have to import more beans because we sold too many to China too cheap. The market or should I say casino failed to do it's job and ration demand.

  82. Anonymous says:

    Is there a conspiracy?Or are we farmers just easy pickins?Who has more at stake than the farmer,whether he's a grower or a livestock feeder?The middlemen want in'n'out,fast buck.Here,buy an option,write the check,relax.Right.Where did that money come from? If you're forced to sell cheap,you bent yourself over that barrel.Don't let paranoia cloud your thinking.It's a big head game that we can win.We own the grain until we sell.

  83. Anonymous says:

    Yes, I'm in South Africa, what goes on in the USA is followed by the mob here, prices are kept low artificially by a cartel of people, traders, banks, cooperatives giving production loans to producers, then pressing for repayment, so weaker ones must sign contracts at low prices, Fat cats make big money, they are aided by the USDA equivalent here, to keep food prices low, they don't know their arse from their elbow, we are exporting white maize which we don't have.Actually production will be way lower than official figures, different place same bull shit, farmers , no matter where are the back bone of any country, yet are victim to the same system world wide

  84. Anonymous says:

    6/1 Poster you are right on !! The best post I've seen on here and the truth..Why are the markets NOT exploding ? Oh..It's the chart formation filling a gap.. the moving average.. blah blah blah. Get real, theres not gonna be a lot of corn or beans raised this year. Sitting on June 2 with no sign of any heat coming this way this week.

  85. Anonymous says:

    10-15 percent of the USDA projected corn crop acres not planted. Holly crap, that is huge to carry over even at their ridicules high yield. What is the math on that and why isn't corn price exploding? Huge acres of beans not planted and may not be until last half of June. Why isn't bean prices exploding? Traders play a myth produced by USDA every March that is pure fiction before a seed hits the ground. This is not fiction but pure reality, just don't get it. Mother Nature is making an ass out of "corn will fall from the sky" people once again. If it wasn't so disgusting to watch play out it would be humerous.

  86. Anonymous says:

    Fact: I'm from South Africa , and a few years ago China bought about 10 containers of g mo soya seed from here and have been testing it in a remote area to see what effect it has on people. Monsanto and China did this quietly through a third party so as not to attract attention, Monsanto would love to have China as a customer We have been eating gmo maize here for a very long time, 40 million people, nobody is dying from it, as far as I know there is no scientific proof that it has any negative effects on people

  87. Anonymous says:

    Monsanto is not a farmers friend. I will not be buying any Monsanto products. What's the wheat growers association doing?

  88. Anonymous says:

    Great stuff , fact not fiction, USDA is under instruction and don't think they come outside the office anyway, how they can live with their conscience is beyond me, think if they had one brain cell in their head collectively, it would be lonely

  89. Anonymous says:

    Had to move the Doctor daughter to Rochester Mn today. Took I 90 across southern Mn and was shocked. So many feilds havn't even been worked much less planted to ANYTHING from Albert Lea to Rochester it was unbelievable ! And they are saturated beyond any hope of getting in for a week or more at least. Not one bean feild that was planted before Albert Lea along the way was even up. The corn from the Worthington Mn area to say Fairmont Mn that was up was maybe 2" tall. Guys..I don't thnk it would be wise locking in any price right now no matter what USDA thinks!

  90. Anonymous says:

    Monsanto should pay for the loss of wheat exports.

  91. Anonymous says:

    When fields are wet,plants tend to grow shallow roots.Come July,they're ill-equipped to supply a 6 ft corn stalk in hot dry conditions.Just sayin'

  92. Anonymous says:

    The bigger picture is that at the rate the administration is printing money, and borrowings from China, who manipulate their currency to their own advantage, the Chinese will soon own a fine piece of real estate, called the USA, let alone Smith field, a job well done BLUES, hope you are satisfied with what you folks have achieved.I R S abusing their powers, where do the orders come from, White Waters conning back to haunt Hillary, the Lady in waiting

  93. Anonymous says:

    Look at the big picture,one-eyed man.Money men believe that there'll be enough good weather on enough land to grow more than enough grain.More than enough is bad for the good guys.Hopefully enough farmers will be team players and take the prevent-plant benefit.They'll get a higher rate of return on the acres they managed to get in.NOW LET'S TALK ABOUT CHINA.They're hacking the military,they own Washington,they cancel grain delivery contracts,THEY JUST BOUGHT SMITHFIELD FOODS.Stop the madness!!

  94. Anonymous says:

    How come that farmers and those close to the land did see the danger, that is now presented in the above report, traders conveniently did not, the one eyed man is king in the land of the land of the blind

  95. Anonymous says:

    To :: Don't think about it DO IT. Well believed it or I have over the years. I had to put a whole crop to bed this last year. There were hundreds of disappointed customers. The seed for that crop is sold by the seed and is the same as throwing a pop can on the ground every time a seed is dropped by the planter. ( bottle deposit ). The other beautiful thing about this crop. It is worthless on November 1st. I planted my 1st pumpkins in 1962 from seed found in a neighbors driveway after a seed drop test. As much as I love doing pumpkins. Corn and bean the other two sisters are so much easier. Why you can store them and sell when you can make a profit. Dont get me wrong I have made money with pumpkins but you better be at the top of your marketing game. You got 2 months to make money your lose your ass and be looking for years from now. Pumpkins is like a T V reality show without the cameras.

  96. Anonymous says:

    Well I am going to say something that I use too in my younger days and still holds water today. IF YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO DISC IT! THEN DON'T PLANT IT! well face it we can all afford to plant it. Its the harvest end that is pain in the drivers seat. Want to raise the price of grain? Don't sell any more than you need for expenses. Bin up the rest. No forward contracts they are a real loser this year. It appears that there are some of you out there that have been holding grain. That is why basis is so high these days. So YES the holding of grain and drying up supply from farm bin to the local grain buyer is working in the cash market. Here is something you guys could do and beat them at there own game. BUY all the fall contracts you can. Then don't sell any grain until the price is up. Then sell your cheap bough contract and sell them high. That way you can bone them twice. JUST SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT!

  97. Anonymous says:

    Yes, we'll said, read Proverbs 1 and you will find the answer to the world's problems, the Fear of The Lord not with us, we can do it on our own, don't need Him

  98. Anonymous says:

    I thought China's economy was slowing down? Bird flu, pigs dying but they bought 540000 tons of new crop corn today. Why don't they wait until it goes down to $3.50 or $4.00 like most analysis are saying? According to some we either have demand destruction if prices go to high or we have burdensome supply's if we actually have somewhat of a carryover. I was just in the grocery store today and the first thing I thought of was what a burdensome supply of food there is with the shelves FULL. With people starving all over the world there's no such thing as having too much food. Who's causing the starvation? Sure as hell not the farmers. Yet we get blamed if there's a drought and prices go up and if prices go down were told we produced too much. It's time we as farmers do what the oil company's don't produce as much and make the prices stay up in price. If you wonder why the world is going to hell in a hand basket it's because it's a world without God. We decided as a nation we don't need him and how's that worked out so far? Not so good.

  99. Anonymous says:

    Who believes that the Chicago Board of Trade was created for the benefit of farmers?Times have changed.We're not price takers anymore.CME wants us to "capitulate" like nervous Nellies.North Dakota is the state with the highest percentage of millionaires per capita.I say great! Washington ain't the rich feed the poor.If grain is expensive your tax dollars don't keep them fat,dumb and happy.We know we're worth it,wait for your price.

  100. Anonymous says:

    Plus the fact these folks don't even touch the grain , continue to sweat it out and enjoy being screwed

  101. Anonymous says:

    Bull***t can baffle the brain power of some, but only for a time, then fiction becomes fact, and if you listen to them , the poor house may be waiting , the Chinese manipulate their currency behind their smiling faces and are laughing all the way to the bank to count the money, joined by a mob of greedy traders, this is unfortunately a world wide trend, have a sweaty day!!

  102. Anonymous says:

    I don't know how the so called professional analyst arrive at their opinions of marketing grain, but I'm sure glad I didn't sell $14.00 soybeans like most suggested.It could have been worse if I paid for this wonderful advice. Everyone has found a way to add a charge to the farmers(worker ants)sweat equity that has no value added.It appears to be nothing more than a way for them to make money and keep their hands clean and soft.

  103. Anonymous says:

    What happend to the big acres and yield the usda said we would have based on "NORMAL WEATHER" back in February? I could hardly see that one coming. It's the same BS different year.

  104. Anonymous says:

    I don't want to discourage the guys who bought future contracts hoping to take delivery. It is very doubtful you will get your commodity. Apparently cbot will not allow you to take delivery because they have nothing to back up these contracts. I hope I am wrong but I would be very surprised if you get delivery. Apparently if you shorted the market you can deliver but why you would want to is unbelievable if the cash price is higher than the futures. If you want delivery of a contract it is unlikely you will be allowed to take delivery . The system is shell game. The same thing happened with the gold exchange where customers wanted delivery and they were told they were out of luck

  105. Anonymous says:

    Paul, could you or Bryce explain the .40 cent jump in gas prices up here in the midwest? What a suprise that 2 oil refineries are shutting down { both at the same time } for maintaince right before Memorial Day weekend. Were produceing more oil than we ever have and were paying over $4.00/ gal at the pump? What a rigged, manipulated market. What's the point in having a crude oil price or rbob gas price when the oil company's dictate the price at the pump? The whole thing with the stock market, the grains or whatever is nothing more than a casino. The CME loves it cuz they get a commision everytime there's a trade.

  106. Anonymous says:

    "Corn prices remain above the $5 level, keeping profit in this market"? Who is paying $5 cash price for December corn Paul? Cash price average is $4.87, and there is no profit at this price. If you aren't going to change your daily report, at least make sure it is accurate. That is just a stupid comment to make when it is not true. Or are you on Obama's payroll?

  107. Anonymous says:

    You should get one put option just out of the money for insurance! Remember -1 cent = -$50

  108. Anonymous says:

    I have got 1 long July corn.I have always want to see how it works. I guess one will not put me in the poor house. 55 cent between July and May.Looks like I fun. Colorado

  109. Anonymous says:

    I've got 10 Long July contracts and will take them into delivery for the heck of it. Show me the corn. S.C.

  110. Anonymous says:

    There is no corn seed to plant! Doesn't matter the weather if you don't have seed!

  111. Anonymous says:

    I think we should call USDA out on it numbers.If all the USA farmers bought a July corn and demand delivery we would find out if the extra 400 million bushels are there.We may win or we may lose but I would like to take the change.If corn go under $5 we all will lose.

  112. Anonymous says:

    People are getting picture, USDA is either staffed by morons or taking instructions from above, manipulation, why ? Goldnan is but one of many world wide on to this legalised theft.China will screw you in your own back yard, USA will end up borrowing more money from them, end up owning you. South Africa is exporting maize ,it does not have, shortage will come.Morals and ethics do not exist anymore, greed , yes Les

  113. Anonymous says:

    BTW it wasn't just China who got away with the bait and switch crap last year. I am guessing when Goldman Sachs was Calling for $9_10 corn the back office was already executing the sell orders.

  114. Anonymous says:

    Easy to short sell commodities you have never gotten your manicured little hands dirty producing. If you want to talk about the most unethical and biggest thieves on the face of the planet effecting grain prices, let's discuss Goldman Sachs and Jon Corzine. Never held accountable for any of their actions ever. And we just keep getting it put to us.

  115. Anonymous says:

    You could also blame the likes of Goldman Sachs and Arlan for destroying our demand markets. When corn trades for over $8 and these idiots are calling for $9-10 what else do you expect. I hope we all learned a lesson from this , but I doubt it. BTW it is clear Goldman Sachs is now short selling December corn.

  116. Anonymous says:

    Iowa State University Extension and Outreach estimated cost of production for a bushel of corn is $5.03. December basis 37 cents. CBOT breakeven point to sell December corn $5.40. Anything less is a loss to the producer. Visit their website for more details.

  117. Anonymous says:

    Average USDA corn farm price projection is $4.70 per bushel for 2013/2014. Slowest planting progress most can remember, which means no early harvest in August this year. Lowest carry out in last 18 years. Cost of production $5 per bushel. Who would sell corn for $4.70? If this is a reality, why would any of us plant corn? I for one am sick and tired of the illusion this government permeates throughout the economy. Just like last year, China will contract cargoes of this cheap corn , then turn around in July and August and sell it back for a $3 profit without touching the grain. My God are we really this stupid? Maybe we all need to sit this year out. Why not?

  118. Anonymous says:

    The USDA won't admit to the shortage of corn and beans we have but can tell us how many bushles were going to produce this year. We still have 125 million bu of beans left when basis in some areas are paying as much as a 1.25 over cbot? Corn basis getting tighter since they found 400 million x-tra bu? Still going to plant 97 million ac of corn when we have the slowest planting pace on record? Same BS usda report, differnt month.

  119. Anonymous says:

    Hummm...record corn production but maybe 25-30 percent forced planted in wet fields as of May 10. Yep, another great insight report out of USDA. Am I the only producer getting tired of this bogus crap...never mind I know the answer. Good luck to all.

  120. Anonymous says:

    May futures are irrelevant they have under 10K in open interest. Need to focus on July and December......

  121. Anonymous says:

    If you took half of the money spend on the last election. Then took that money and gave it to AG Colleges and said here, go research something. Just threw the money at them and let them figure out what look at. Just think of what could happen if they didn't have to beg for grant money for a research project. That would yield more and better results than we got out of the pass election. I think that is something that everyone could agree upon. 1 billion dollars to elect a president what a waste of money.

  122. Anonymous says:

    Going back to 4-29 comment about 4-27. I agree with the both of you. Men have died so you can vote or not. For 4-27 there was about 8% of his voting block that felt the same way. Neither of the candidates inspired that group enough to do anything and they saw no hope or change from either one. They both beat each other up so badly that neither one was going to be a worth while president. Neither one really had any kind plan or clue what they were going to to once they won. That's the beauty of this great country. Obama and his administration will past and we will get pass this experiment too.

  123. Anonymous says:

    Sounds like some of you demo voters are still on your P&M committes.Must be Bush!s fault.

  124. Anonymous says:

    Well here in Sw Mn 6 miles off the Iowa border the forecast is for temps in the 30's and 40's till Monday with a snow cold rain mix !! Got 40 acres (out of 800) fertilized and field cultivated and looked good. Was gonna plant it today and called my seed guy to see which variety had the best emergence. He said he just got an e-mail from his Monsanto rep saying DO NOT plant today because of the forecast ! Said the germ is weak enough and a cold rain after planting is asking for stand trouble. Gonna be into next week for sure to start rolling again : ( Mother Nature is having her say again ! Those USDA numbers are gonna be way off.

  125. Anonymous says:

    I can't believe that with 3 seventy degree days in a row that everyone wasn't able to dry out and get everything planted. That seemed to be the idea last week. Hopefully everyone that needs bushels between September 1st and October 1st has them secured because come September 20th when no one is combining new crop they will have something to grind into ethanol or have livestock feed. I would think that the 700 million bushel carryout basket will be empty by then.

  126. Anonymous says:

    Here we go again. Your big acres and yield is disappearing before your eyes but yet it is still a anomaly. I get it but keep up junior.

  127. Anonymous says:

    Up limit on a non-reporting day! Has that happened before?

  128. Anonymous says:

    Did anyone catch some of these planting progress guesses in the 10-15% on corn? Who in their right mind would say that? Do you watch the weather anywhere outside your property lines??? 5% national..wheat getting worse. You guys are right, mother nature will idle 10, but the govt won't ever print that. Can't wait to see how they spin this one. S.C.

  129. Anonymous says:

    It's obvious the fundamentals have been throwen out the window. Dec corn trading below levels a year ago and we have less corn on hand than a year ago even with the mysterious 400 million bu the usda supposedly found. Don't forget were off to a great start this year with a whopping 4% planted. Where's that "early" corn gonna come from when there's no corn planted yet? Better call up South America and fill a couple more ships or have the usda wave their magical wand and find some more bushles to get us through. The 8:18 pm comment is spot on, i don't even read Paul's comments anymore it's the same thing day after day.

  130. Anonymous says:

    The casino they call the stock market was in full effect today after somebody can send a fake tweet saying there was an explosion at the white house causing the stock market { i mean casino} to fall 150 points in a matter of seconds only to recover in a manner of seconds. Makes you wonder.

  131. Anonymous says:

    The start off the Colorado Rockies game the Temp. was 23 at 1.00 P.M. The is the coldest temp for the start of a game ever. The wheat around Denver looked brown from the snow last week.

  132. Anonymous says:

    Next week I'm seeding a pivot back to alfalfa that made 275 bushels of corn last fall. Hay prices are high and the supply and demand equation still sets the price not the USDA or the boys in Chicago. Hay still nets more dollars and acre than corn.

  133. Anonymous says:

    Early planting favours corn AND beans yield.Regardless of the acreage,late planting will reduce bushels per acre.

  134. Anonymous says:

    The 4/12 comment is exactly right. End users should not be getting concerned about planting delays. We have plenty of grain to make it until this fall according to the usda. Basis in my area for beans went from 35-40 over to 65-70 over cbot. Not sure why when the usda just said they "found more". Usda can say whatever they want to manipulate the markets but basis tells the real truth. I'm all for IDLE 10.

  135. Anonymous says:

    Would someone please tell me why end users are getting concerned about late planting in the north and cold temps affecting germination in the south? The dumb asses should call the USDA, they found 400 million bushels, too bad they won't tell anyone where those bushels are. The Basis improved .25 where I'm at 2 days after the latest BS report?? If it wasn't so disturbing that our goverment can release bogus reports to promote their agenda and get away with it, it would be funny. If any public traded company in this country pulled that crap with their quarterly reports, the CFO's would be in prison!

  136. Anonymous says:

    As for the last comment on here, you are spot on! This is beyond absurd. Props to Darin Newsome and Arlan Suderman for their comments this afternoon. One side not knowing what the other is doing, one set of numbers arguing with the other. Ridiculous. Lets hope ole man market is gonna help us. Big Brother is trying to control prices. Anybody remember 1984 by George Orwell?

  137. Anonymous says:

    Another BS report from the usda. I don't think God himself could figure out how they come up with their numbers. Whether it's NASS or WASDE none of them have a clue what's going on yet some out there kiss their a$$ like god has spoken. All they do with their reports is manipulate the markets. We have gone through roughly 4-5 months and we still have 125 million bu of beans left??? Their an embarrassment to this country and an insult to all farmers.

  138. Anonymous says:

    Call it the China report. World wheat stocks were up 148 million bushel with 110 coming from lower domestic feeding in China. World course grain stocks up 7.55 million metric tons with 3.15 attributed to China. World corn stocks were up 307 million bushel with China’s increasing 124 million bushels. World soybean stocks were up 89 million bushels with major exports increasing 170 million bushel and China decreasing 73 million bushels. China had a large impact on the report than the US did. Freeport, IL

  139. Anonymous says:

    Take it on down to 50 cent, we will just have $6 dolla bases......

  140. Anonymous says:

    Oversold? Ya think?

  141. Anonymous says:

    I keep hearing that South America is so much cheaper than our corn and were not competitive in the export market compared to them. SO WHAT. Why should we as farmers here in the U.S compete with other countries to see who can produce more corn and sell it to China for little as possible? Corn in China is around $10/bushel and beans over $21/bushel. They sit back and see what country can produce the most so they can buy it as cheap as possible. I'm all for cutting 10% and producing enough for what we use here in the U.S. If some other country wants to raise it for less than the cost of production then have at it. By the way if we would run short we always we can always count on the usda to wave their magical wand and mysteriously find some or if we do import let's put a tariff on it.

  142. Anonymous says:

    Amazing how this works! Just sold corn in S.C. for the highest basis ever for a spot market. I know the board crashed, but with all this extra 400million corn, would basis go up??? By the way, the South is wet, has been wet for a month and hard to get corn seed is being shipped right back to the dealer. Cotton would have replaced corn anyway with their price strength versus corn weakness. Who can believe a thing that crew in DC says?

  143. Anonymous says:

    I agree with 4/3 comments. Let's spread the word to every farmer you know tell them to pass it on. "IDLE 10". Let everyone know that we are tired of being pissed on. I plant 1200 acres of corn and just cancelled 120 acres of seed. If we don't do this USDA will have their wish in that China will be able to buy $5 corn.

  144. Anonymous says:

    To promote the movement, lets not plant our head lands, that way we will know what farmers are not on board.

  145. Anonymous says:

    Let's call it "IDLE 10". I grow 2000 acres of corn and today i cancelled 200 acres of seed. Do the math boys, if we refuse to plant 10% of USDA's projected planted acres(97 mil) that puts us at approx 87 million planted acres. Actual harvested acres would be around 81 million. Let's make the easy money, idle 10, buy futures, and make the paper money they do at the CBOT. Wonder how the USDA would lie about that?

  146. Anonymous says:

    FSA cutting all farm programs by 8.5%.We have to take care of ourselves.It time to cut acreas or plant numbers.300 dollar a bag seed no wonder Monsanto has got record profits.

  147. Anonymous says:

    Why do so many analysts & traders try so hard to believe the USDA? I looked at my bins and they are no bigger than they were last week.

  148. Anonymous says:

    If you don't agree with an acreage cut,reconsider planting land that barely repays your inputs.That 80 - 100 bu/acre only increases the surplus and puts no money in your pocket.Everyone can agree on that.

  149. Anonymous says:

    I wholeheartedly agree with everyone that is considering 10 to 20 percent cut in production. It is time the farmer get the break and stop the USDA and brokers from manipiulating the crap out of the market!

  150. Anonymous says:

    It's just amazing that everytime people start leaning one way or another the USDA pulls this crap. I hope this stimulates more demand and we will run out of corn in July instead of September. Maybe this will help to get about 90 million acres planted to corn instead of 100.

  151. Anonymous says:

    I spent 300$ an acre saving my crop from the drought,+18 hour days.I know what its worth come june.The guys that got the million dollar insurance payoffs produced nothing.The shortages we experience last summer are childsplay to whats coming.

  152. Anonymous says:

    Does Washington want the massive money printing strategy to inflate food prices? No! Thursday's USDA report punished everyone holding or speculating in grain.

  153. Anonymous says:

    Let us make some of our own demand.I am going today and filling up with E-85 and buying some big steaks. I would like to Thank the people who buy my real corn!!!!

  154. Anonymous says:

    Time to make a stance for the next few weeks, DON"T SELL. drive the CBOT price back up 200cents.Use our network, tell your neighbor, email your farming friend, and spread the word DON"T SELL. and cut planting numbers by 20% as all have been saying your gross return in the end will be better and you will have less costs.Go for it "SPREAD THE WORD".

  155. Anonymous says:

    How about this for an Idea.Everyone buy one July corn and demand delivery.We all know they do not have it to deliver.I wonder how much it would cost to import corn to Chicago? But CBOT would proable change the rules.Like the last time we ran out of Soybeans.

  156. Anonymous says:

    I've suspected that the gov't didn't want speculators to make money from the short 2012 crop. This report may be suspect,compared to all the private estimates.But like everything else with this administration,the end justifies the means.

  157. Anonymous says:

    Same old BS. If the USDA is so concerned about the cost of food, why is the Dept of Energy not concerned with the cost of fuel and gas. When oil and gas goes up so does food prices, but no one ever mentions this. Last time I checked oil and gas prices affect food prices more than commodity prices. We the farmers have the power. Keep you bins locked and cut back 20% and watch the USDA scramble when corn hits $10 and soybeans $20.

  158. Anonymous says:

    Gas is still higher because it is control by a few who can charge what ever they want.If we all use E-85 that would change very fast.Help yourself and the USA burn E-85 !!!!!

  159. Anonymous says:

    The govt comes out with a BS report and the grains tank because we supposedly have way more than even the most bearish person even thought. Yet were producing more gas and oil here in the U.S than ever before but i'm still paying very high gas and diesel prices at the pump??? Please write in and comment if anybody has a logical answer.

  160. Anonymous says:

    Most of the bearish guys that i know did'nt expect a report like this. Even they have enough brains to know this was a phoney report. Why did the usda not break down on how they came up with these phoney numbers? They usually have a break down on how they come up with their numbers. Not one analysist out there could tell us on how they came up with them. Probably because they knew they did'nt have to say on how they came up with them so they throw out some bogus numbers and manipulate the markets. Goes to show how clueless and disfunctional the usda is.

  161. Anonymous says:

    I think we all need to cut back 10 to 20 %

  162. Anonymous says:

    After seeing how much corn we have I think I will cut my areas 20%.My ground needs time to regain soil moisture.

  163. Anonymous says:

    The traders' reaction to the USDA numbers is overdone.They can make money pushing prices down.I've read several opinions from people in the real market,commercial buyers,who believe higher prices are needed or they'll run out of corn before harvest. CME is not the be all and end all.They're the kind of people who check the weather on the computer instead of looking outside.

  164. Anonymous says:

    Farmers...We see what one bogus report can do to our prices. If we over produce it will get worse. I'm all for cutting 10%. If the govt thinks they can put out a prepostreious report like this then we can counter punch by cutting back. We still hold the cards by how much we plant.

  165. Anonymous says:

    The real winner today was our good friends in communist China.

  166. Anonymous says:

    Who is going to sell corn 40 cents cheaper than it was yesterday? Either the market bounces back or basis goes up.Until sanity prevails grain stays in the bins.

  167. Anonymous says:

    If we imported 400 million bu from argentina then where is it? We might have imported it on paper but where is the physical commodity? If we did it's getting all used up or why would we import that much? Just another way to manipulate the markets. They did the same thing a few years ago, find some extra grain only to lose it in the following report and then mysteriously find it again. Maybe the grain is playing "hide and seek" with the usda.

  168. Anonymous says:

    The USDA just proved to me that there is life on mars and they are planting corn and beans up there.

  169. Anonymous says:

    More corn, beans, and wheat?? What was the livestock eating? What happend to all the soybeans that were exported? Were over 90% sold that the usda said we would by the end of the year. Basis for corn and beans are very high yet we supposedly have all this grain on hand? The usda obviously does'nt have a clue whats going on so they throw out some obsurbed numbers. From what i was told there's no breakdown in how they came up with them that's why nobody can figure out how they did. Wonder if China is smileing from ear to ear?

  170. Anonymous says:

    The extra 400 million bu of corn is coming from argentina to the usda

  171. Anonymous says:

    The USDA is now the biggest corn producer ever.

  172. Anonymous says:

    Inventories of grain is at multi-year lows at both on farm and commercials, the usda just told us that a few weeks ago, YET they find an extra 400 million bu. of corn ?? Can anyone say BULLS*@T! The USDA is no more reliable than a fortune teller. OH wait, im sorry.... they have been so accurate the last four years. Funny, if there is that much corn here why are we importing corn from argentina?

  173. Anonymous says:

    The USDA just increased the range of estimates for corn stocks to 500M bushels,anywhere from 4.9B to 5.4B bushels.Clear as mud.I'd like to know how all these estimates are done,to see who uses the best approach.How can the average estimate from private forecasts be so different from the government's?

  174. Anonymous says:

    maybe we need to think about how much corn & beans we plant this year? If we over plant we will kill our markets for sometime to come. I'm thinking of rotating oats, wheat, and alfafa.

  175. Anonymous says:

    Some people wanted to believe $10 corn and $20 beans were just around the corner.Their timing may have been off or their target price may be at the end of the rainbow .This spooky weather is the wild card.

  176. Anonymous says:

    I don't believe there's hardly any grain left. Most farmers that i know sold their beans right off the combine for $16-17 bucks. Unlike the usda basis does'nt lie.

  177. Anonymous says:

    Why would any one store grain until spring or summer of 2013 when we had those prices last fall? I don't think many people have that grain in the bins.

  178. Anonymous says:

    Hang onto your crops boys ... the market in May will be a huge profit for us. All the indicators are showing less volume in bins than they predict.

  179. Anonymous says:

    Every producer needs to remember anylist analylize and do not have their butt on the line. This is why when they are from farm backgrounds, they chose the paycheck. Call it right, they are a self proclaimed genious, call it wrong, and outside forces came to play. Learn as much that you can on your own. If mother nature tells you are screwed, listen to that and not the befungling stooges watching the market "action".

  180. Anonymous says:

    From what I could find, their yields are way better than forecasted.

  181. Anonymous says:

    Has anyone heard how the yields are for the soybeans that Brazil has harvested? If they have supposedly harvested over 30% of the beans why haven't we heard of the yields? Or the yields not as great as forcasted?!

  182. Anonymous says:

    The cost of farming increases partly because farmers are willing to pay more.We grumble about it but keep paying more.$300 seed corn? We buy it because everyone else does,too.The more you buy,the bigger the discount.They'll tell you to plant it thicker until $1 of seed returns $1 of grain.Guess who you're working for.I'd bet someone could build a solid dependable combine for $100K,but they wouldn't make $75K profit off it.We should rethink a few things instead of feeding the input price spiral.The government won't be able to bail us out if grain prices collapse.We're the ones taking the risks, wise up.

  183. Anonymous says:

    Well guys if you read all this crap on these websites, it looks like farming has come to an end. We might as well start looking for jobs. I hear you can make decent money just sweeping floors for the government(50gs)? I plan to donate my farmland to the CBOT, and USDA if it all goes down the gutter. I mean hell, they are the only ones that can predict a crop right down to the last bushel, 6 months before I even decide what I am going to plant! They are way better farmers than I.

  184. Anonymous says:

    Well guys in Paul's March 7 th report. Paul is growing concerned that we are exporting to many soybeans. Well that means 2 things need to happen. LOCK THE SOYBEAN BIN DOORS. If there is a short supply of soybeans my guess is the price is going to go up. "The market will do it's job". How?????. The price will go up to slow demand, also to get more soybeans planted. Even with a large crop here. Out in the "real world market" they are still short. If the U S and South America have short crops this year. The price of soybeans could be here what they pay off the boat in China. Its $20.00 plus a bushel to feed a pig to eat later. Now there is nothing the matter with making a profit. If you don't you won't be farming long term. We are now in the days of farming on a city lots of 20 years ago. $20,000.00 was the going price for a 1 acre city lot. Farm land was around $1,000.00 or less. The days of $2.00 corn and even $6.00 corn are gone. If you want that high bushel corn its $300.00 a bag throw in some $300.00 to $500.00 land rent and the equipment to do it with. Use your own numbers on that and your labor expenses. Well it gets really crazy really fast. Now I really do feel bad for anyone with dairy or livestock. Because the government is still treating milk as a byproduct. What they forgot to tell you is that you are in the beef business. A neighbor told me he sent a cow off to market and he got $1200.00 for her. Then he said with than other $400.00 he could get a replacement that is ready to calve. That is sad. Milk is I believe is below the price of production. If milk was to carry the farm, I guess it would be time to open than other can of Red Bull. I hope they added calcium and vitamin D.

  185. Anonymous says:

    "Look for opportunities to market some new crop corn later in February as the crop insurance price is established." It is March 6th, not February. Are you writing or just copying?

  186. Anonymous says:

    The govt wants the farmers to raise a bumper crop of corn, wheat & beans so China can buy it at a cheap price. Kinda sounds like slavery. Grow a big crop so we can pay the farmer as little as possible cuz China wants cheap grain. I'm all in for cutting 10%. We can play the game too.

  187. Anonymous says:

    Cash-croppers are trying to push a rope.For example,livestock was dumped on the market and freezers filled up with cheap beef and pork.Fuel blenders exercized their credits.All the while we willingly drive up the price of land and pay higher input costs and risk the weather.The market needs to tighten the rope for us.It's a long way from the supermarket cash register to our bank accounts.I waited out the market last year and was rewarded.I'm all - in again this year.

  188. Anonymous says:

    I good example we do not need the CBOT is I am still getting record price for my Hay.No USDA or CBOT to control the price.I agree in planting to 10% less or we will cut our own neck.

  189. Anonymous says:

    It takes at least 6.00 corn to make a living.

  190. Anonymous says:

    To the 3/4 9;07 comment..You need the CBOT for a gage. We don't need the CBOT for anything! I feel the same way as 10.23 comment. Lets just give our corn away. All of it! The CBOT can go straight to hell with the prices, Usda too!

  191. Anonymous says:

    The cash market will pay $10.00. Think about this, last year a lot of end users only paid $5.50 for corn early in the spring. Producers got suckered into selling early. Same thing is happening now for new crop. 10+5.50=15.50 and 15.50 / 2 = 7.75 average Is the market doing its job? I say hell no! These 2 and 3 dollar market swings are just ridiculous! You don't give something away before you get it! Its all politics. The market has pissed producers off. Most would have sold their remaining uncontracted corn at $8.00. Now they will hold it tell it rots, or they get their $7.75 average too! I bet they will get their wish. Keep the doors locked!

  192. Anonymous says:

    If demand is not there for corn why not drop prices to $4.00 and see what happens HA-HA

  193. Anonymous says:

    Prices quoted in your text do not agree with prices shown in the table at the end.

  194. Anonymous says:

    Responding to the previous post,who can buy corn @$9.50 and use it profitably? That kind of enthusiasm rarely goes unpunished.While I believe prices have a lot of headroom,end-users have their limits.I watched Arlan on the weekend farm report.He recommended that farmers take current offers for old crop.Something changed his mind about $10 corn.

  195. Anonymous says:

    Well guys I just got done reading the last 10 or 12 comments. Everyone of you had made a good point. Myself I have been playing grain marketer for 4 years so far. Do I know everything about marketing NO. But you do learn fast when you got skin in the game and want to do it than other year. I also market grain for others. We set a target price. Right now I have old crop corn $9.50 a bushel. I don't own the corn and the farmer is free to sell at anytime. I get paid if the farmer sets and waits. If he sells before grain gets to target price he has made more than he would have. WHAT'S THE POINT! You need the CBOT for a gage. You can look it up on your phone at anytime. It tells you if things are going up or down. But this year is extra special. You have the group of 600 in Washington. From the President down through Congress the Cabinet and a few others that are not doing anything to turn things around. I don't see any of them gaining ground either. Yes they are importing corn and soybeans into this country. Have been for years. Most are U S based companies. Why to justify owning the ships and equipment that goes with them.. Also s. American corn doesn't have toxins in it that some corn belt corn does. That solves that problem. As for the Chinese they are huge players in our market and they want cheap grain. Why? There economy is slowing down. That means they are getting poorer. They need to buy a lot of wheat because they had a short crop and Australia had a short crop. That leaves us with high priced wheat that the rest of the world didn't want and now everybody does. SO BUILD MORE BINS. IF GRAIN IS IN THE BIN SOMEONE WILL PAY TO GET IT OUT. A bunch of your analyst have been whinnying that farmers are not selling grain. Keep up the good work because they can't import enough from S America. today and about 60 days more to load a ship if your order is in.

  196. Anonymous says:

    If there's no demand for corn or lack there of then why is the basis as strong as it is? Why has China quietly bought between 600,000 and 800,000 tons of new crop corn? Why are we importing corn from Brazil if there's NO demand? Truth is there's a lot of demand for corn, we don't have any because we had a bad crop. I thought it was the job of the market to RATION DEMAND if we were short?

  197. Anonymous says:

    I'm in southern Ontario,we're offered 40 cents UNDER Chicago for old crop corn at the local elevator.So I'd say that there's corn available,but it's too far from the people who need it.I sold 2011 old crop for $8 in August,it just takes patience.If the bulls lost their ba!!s,I'll get it done without them.

  198. Anonymous says:

    The government lives in a fairy tale world. They always spend it before they get it. If they don't get it, they borrow it! Same thing with grain. Its always a perfect world with them. If we don't grow it, SA will. Don't worry about it, give it away now, and worry later.

  199. Anonymous says:

    Thie cbot has become totally irrelevant. When Japan purchases corn because The cbot has become totally irrelevant as a price discovery tool. Cash prices for beans and corn are .60 above futures. How do you protect yourself against price moves. All they talk about is money movement and lack of demand when their are very limited amounts of product to move. Japan buys corn because S. America because has become an unreliable supplier and all the markets does is shrug their shoulders and don't react. The cbot seems to be controlled buy a few players and there volume is struggling because people are just saying to heck with you. You have become usless and may go the way of the dinosaurs. Forget the futures price only pay attention to the cash price and build bins and only sell when you want to. Throw in a few more bankrupcy's and fraud and people walk away from you never to return to do business with the futures market again

  200. Anonymous says:

    There isn't one analyst out there that knows what the markets are going to do and if they did they would'nt be telling you and me anyway. The only difference is they get paid for their opinion. That's why before every meeting they have to say there's a risk in trading or what ever they say to cover their ass. Everyone can tell you "IF" this happens then it will do this or "IF" it does'nt then this will happen. Isn't that what their getting paid for? I've learned to listen to 1 or 2 analyst and their opinion then make a decision on my own. The more analyst you listen to the more confused you get. You have just as much chance as being right or wrong as they do.

  201. Anonymous says:

    Why does the USDA take it upon themselves to predict acreage and yield? It's a mug's game,the fact that they do it anyway makes me suspicious.At most they could offer a high-low range with an admission that no one could possibly guess what the year has in store.Even when harvest is finished they still don't know the answer.Add China's hi-jinks to the puzzle,it's no wonder that speculators shy away from the grain market.

  202. Anonymous says:

    Ya know, that U S D A man may be on to something. When he said the rain should return to the drought area and yields would trend line. If that is the case. When it will have to start raining now to mid summer. It will also have to be that kind of spring and early summer that it is to wet to walk every week. In order to get enough water to grow the crop the U S D A man is calling for. It could turn out to be a very slow spring. The only thing growing is the algae in the puddles and field ponds where corn was last year.

  203. Anonymous says:

    I am just curious how many years out of the last 10 that the US has produced a corn crop with an average of 163 or whatever nonsense they are talking about. Why don't they get realistic and start around 140 bpa. What would be wrong with adjusting it up in July or August if there is favorable weather. I think it hurt more people than it helped last year having the yield start up in the rafters. Too many producers sold too early and too many people held off too long to cover their feed needs.

  204. says:

    Correct where wrong, if spring rains are not plentiful, the crop won't make it. Then we got no wheat no corn and no hay. Meanwhile, Friday's CFTC data looked to me like the hedge funds are approaching record short positions in wheat! Wow. This bit about, oh wheat's like an alcoholic's stepchild, or a weed, it's a survivor, it'll be fine if we get good rain in March and April is absurd. Today, I even heard, it's like a cat, it's got nine lives. Those are the sentiments of blithe complacency on the part of people making money on short positions. Obviously, it's easy to be less concerned about the urgency the domestic food supply when your account at the clearinghouse is fatter by the day. But the risks are real, they should be reflected in the futures market.

  205. Anonymous says:

    He is right about that. But he left out the best part. The U S D A guy is convinced that corn is going to be $4.20 and beans are going to be 10.30. I think he needs to get some better what ever he is on. If this is the case for prices this year. I guess I am only going to plant to good land. The last 10 to 20 percent of poor ground with get tiled or cover cropped and rested this year. This year is starting to really look like a good year to slow down and get some other stuff done like building more bins!!!!. If corn and beans are going to be this cheap it is going to take out some of the neighbors . So it looks like there will be reasonable land and equipment to buy. Get your money right!!!!!!

  206. Anonymous says:

    Did anybody expect anything less than what came out of the usda today? Same bullshit different year. We were told the same story last year and how did that turn out? The usda is living in a fantasy world using fictional numbers. They have no clue how many acres will be planted or what the weather will be or yield will be. Someone should of asked Glauber how many times the usda has been right in the last 5 years? Zero. We have 60+% of the corn belt in major to severe drought and their basing their yields on normal weather?? Wonder what he was drinking before he said that? He gets my vote for the most perposterious statement of the year. At least for now.

  207. Anonymous says:

    This whole market is just a disaster waiting to happen. I have every intention of selling every bushel of corn off of the combine this year, but I hope the market can hold on that long. I can't sell too much too early because I just don't know where my crop is going to come in at, not to mention possible quality problems. I really can't even hardly remotely venture a guess on the bean yields at this point. I am not quite as worried about pricing them at this point though. I want them priced before anyone can start talking about a record crop in South America next winter though, or $20/bu whichever comes first. I wonder if Sam's Club has sleeping pills in bulk? That may be my only chance of sleep for the next few months.

  208. says:

    Much good stuff here...No distraction intended...But, that MGEX NCI...I peck around at random and can barely any find summer delivery bids at that price, most a quarter or so higher...Is that a good number?

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