Four months after devastating wildfires burned more than 1.2 million acres across the Texas Panhandle, pastureland is recovering, ranchers and others affected by the historic fires are trying to get back to normal, and financial loss estimates continue to grow.

But so does hope.

“Every day is better than the day before,” says Hemphill County Extension Agent Andy Holloway.

“We’ve had some rain, not as much as in other parts of the state,” Holloway says, “but we had rain in May, some in June, and 1 to 2 inches as recently as a week ago.

Hemphill County Extension Agent Andy Holloway. (Photo by Shelley E. Huguley)

“That will make a big difference to growing summer grass and going into next year. It could be a lot worse. It is green and pretty here, now; it was getting dry and crispy before last week’s rain.”

The area needs more moisture, he adds. “We are behind our normal precipitation averages and are expecting a massive heat wave that will take a toll on ranch land.”

DeDe Jones, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economist, says most of the Panhandle has received much less rain than Central Texas. “Rainfall here has been average to below average since the fire,” Jones says. “Rangeland is starting to green up but we're not getting enough forage to fully stock cattle, and it doesn't look like we're going to for a while.”

Recovery time

Related:Financial aid still needed for wildfire losses

Jones says animal scientists suggest that it takes about one and a half grazing seasons, two to three years, before pasture fully recovers.

“If the area gets a wet spring or a cool summer, it can grow faster than that. Unfortunately, that is not what we're having right now. We've had a relatively dry spring and it's turned hot.

“Temperatures should be close to 100 degrees all next week, so any moisture we received from seasonal rainfall the last two weeks is going to dry out quickly with the heat and the wind,” Jones says. “I don't think stocking rate expectations for one and a half or two grazing seasons to recovery will be any better than the rate we're going now.”

Smokehouse Creek fire

Holloway says the Smokehouse Creek fire, one of several that burned across the Panhandle within a 48-hour period in late February, hit Hemphill and Roberts County particularly hard. “We were the epicenter of that fire,” he says. “Of the 1.1 million acres burned in the Smokehouse fire, 900,000 were in these two counties.

Fencing supplies remain a major need. (Photo by Sam Craft)

“It was the largest wildfire in Texas history,” Holloway says. “We lost thousands of head of cattle, 52 residences, several thousand miles of fences, and rangeland that will take years to recover.”

Cattle losses

Jones says the latest estimates of cattle losses calculated in May range from 10,000 to 15,000 head. “We projected about 12,000 head, but that number has increased. We do not have an exact number but it's higher now than it was when we initially did that estimate.”

She says a lot of cows that initially looked okay are declining as they're exposed to heat units and heat stress. “They started showing respiratory issues as they got further into the calving season. Also, after they  calved, their bags were burned, so they won't be having any more calves.”

She said some animals’ hooves were burned, so they weren't sound anymore. “I think initial loss estimates will continue to grow as we see long-term effects on cattle that survived.”

Infrastructure losses high

Jones says latest estimate of agriculture-related losses from the fires is $123 million. A big portion of that comes from infrastructure, about $69 million, and a lot of that will be fencing that must be repaired or replaced.

“The cattle losses were the smaller value in that loss number,” she says. “The biggest impact will be replacing infrastructure, including fences, barns, windmills, corrals, and other structures. More than 50% of that loss number will go straight to fencing and infrastructure. That is probably the biggest need for now.”

A melted swing set and a pile of metal and ash are all that's left after the Smokehouse Creek Fire. (Photo by Sam Craft)

Jones says all the fires, Smokehouse Creek as well as fires in Pampa, Dumas, and across the Panhandle, totaled a little more than 1.2 million acres. “That 1.2 million acres represents about 1900 sections of land, and every section will have from one mile of fence on the low end to about four miles of fence on the high end. If ranchers fence all four sides of a section, that’s four miles.”

Some ranchers may share fences where sections touch a neighbor’s. Some may only fence certain parameters. “Assume one to two miles of fencing per section; that's  2,000 to 3,000 miles of fencing to be repaired or replaced, based on our estimates.”

It’s not cheap. “Every mile of fencing costs somewhere between $15,000 and $20,000 to replace,” Jones says. “We are noticing that more ranchers will have to replace fencing rather than repair because the fire was so hot that it burned the coating off a lot of fencing. Even though it's still standing, it's not viable and will have to be replaced. It takes a long time to rebuild that much fence.”

Restocking lost herds

Replacing cattle will also take time and a lot of money.

“The cattle markets now are high,” Jones says. “Mama cows are worth a lot of money, so trying to replenish an entire cow herd would be expensive. If they choose to raise and keep their heifers, eventually replenishing the herd, they’re talking about a two- to three-year turnaround to fully restock. There is no quick fix; it will be a multi-year recovery effort.”

Grazing recovery

That holds for grazing land, too.

“That's the hard part,” Jones says. “I was in Canadian (Hemphill County) recently. It has greened up and looks nice and pretty and green. The first impulse will to be to put cattle back on. Keep in mind, ranchers lost 10,000 to 15,000 head, but another 40,000 head or more have been relocated to Kansas or Oklahoma or other parts of Texas.

“This is a tragic time to lose a cowherd because they're worth so much. Ranchers went through a lot to hold onto those mama cows and now they have to start over," says DeDe Jone, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economist. (Photo by Shelley E. Huguley)

“In many cases, ranchers are paying to lease pastureland for mama cows until they can get them back on their own pasture. Their first inclination might be to bring them back as quickly as they can to save some money. But if they overgraze it too quickly or restock it too soon, grazing land will be worse off.”

Terrible timing

This fire could not have occurred at a worse time, Jones says. “Cattle prices are at a record high. After three years of high feed cost, mediocre cattle markets, and drought requiring them to feed cattle, the remaining cattle were the best of the best. Ranchers culled marginal cows when feed cost got so high and there was no pastureland.

“Producers were finally at a tipping point with feed prices going down and cattle markets exploding. Now they've lost so many cows.

“This is a tragic time to lose a cowherd because they're worth so much. Ranchers went through a lot to hold onto those mama cows and now they have to start over.”

No beef price factor

Jones says a common misconception among consumers is that losing 10,000 to 15,000 head of mama cows will affect the price of beef at the grocery store. “Everybody worries because 85% of all U.S. cattle are processed in the Texas Panhandle. They assume food prices are going to go up. They're not wrong that 85% of U.S. beef is processed in the Panhandle but it's all in feedyards, which were not affected by the fires.”

Generosity abounds

“One last thing,” says Holloway. “People continue to amaze me with their gifts. Folks from all across the nation are generous and kind.

“All of these gifts mean a lot to folks trying to get back to business. Many lost an entire cowherd, fencing, and their homes. It takes time to get back to normal life. We’re trying to get back to somewhat close to normal.”