The world’s population hit a milestone, 8 billion souls, on Nov. 15, 2022, according to a report from the United Nations.
The population grew by one billion over the last 12 years and estimates indicate the number will hit 10 billion around 2040.
A rapidly growing population means increased competition for land, water, food, and other resources necessary for human survival.
Agricultural productivity will be challenged to meet those needs. Research in improved varieties, products and management techniques to increase productivity will be crucial, say an agricultural economist, a plant pathology specialist, and a director of agricultural research.
“It is going to be important for agriculture to continue to improve production practices so we can meet the demands of that growing population,” said Aaron Smith, Extension economist with the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Knoxville.
“I think we have the capacity in the United States to meet the demands for improvements in food production with better use of resources — land, fertilizer, fuel, water, all those things.”
Cliff Lamb, director for Texas A&M AgriLife Research, College Station, said efforts must focus on future needs while trying to solve some current problems. “We try to solve today's issues, but for the most part, we're trying to solve issues that are going to hit us five to 20 years from now,” Lamb said. “We need to look to fundamental work that will change agricultural systems in the future.”
Smith pointed out that much of the population growth will occur in developing nations.
“Where that population growth occurs makes a difference, especially from a consumption outlook,” he said. “A lot of growth has occurred in India and some Southeast Asian nations, and Africa is a large driver. In those areas, population growth will result in increased consumption just to sustain nutritional requirements.
“A huge difference exists in commodities and products that are consumed for countries seeking to meet basic nutritional requirements and countries that are building or expanding the middle class.”
Bob Kemerait, Extension plant pathologist, University of Georgia, Tifton, has traveled to numerous developing countries to help create or improve programs to increase farm productivity.
Kemerait said lack of per-acre productivity is common in Africa, as well as Haiti, the Philippines, and other developing countries. “Limited inputs, including seed supplies, fertilizer, mechanization, and water all limit production,” he said.
Unique solutions
He also said importing American production techniques will not always solve problems in these countries.
“We can’t go in and say, ‘do like we do,’” he said. “Many people in these regions depend on labor from the land. Too much mechanization too quickly, for instance, results in loss of jobs, especially for women, who do a lot of the farm labor.”
He added that “mechanization absolutely increases productivity. But people have to be able to afford food, so they need the jobs.
“I have seen a lot of small farmers who lack inputs, infrastructure, education, and mechanization needed to increase productivity and profit. But they can’t depend on doing what we do. It has to be a process.”
“We are fortunate in the U.S, that we're in a food surplus set of circumstances,” Smith said, “but other areas of the globe obviously are not. That provides incentives for increased production from places like the U.S., Brazil, Russia, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe.”
Global concern
A lot will depend on political issues, he said. “We have the capacity to meet food requirements; it's a question of making sure that we continue to evolve production practices and environmental stewardship.”
“Our food systems are global in nature,” Lamb said. “Consider the impact the war in Ukraine and Russia has on our agricultural systems. It’s a perfect example of the impact of disruption in an area where a significant part of the global production of fertilizer takes place.
“That conflict affected production systems in the U.S. It increased input costs significantly —at the very least it's doubled, but in most cases, it was triple to almost four times what it was a year ago, simply because of disruption to the supply chain. We have to talk about resilient food systems on a global basis.”
Developing world challenges
Kemerait sees four significant challenges to meet the demands of a rapidly rising population, including agriculture’s environmental impact, climate issues, resource limitations, and attracting the brightest minds to work in agriculture.