In the small town where I grew up, our 4th of July parade was a big deal and attracted many people from the surrounding area. Yet, as a young boy, I was always much more enamored by fireworks. What kind? Any kind that exploded, smoked, made noise, you name it. Thankfully, I did not have any experiences where those fireworks injured me, at least that I can recall.

Some may say we’ve had some early fireworks in the markets. Let’s look at some of those and see what potential surprise fireworks could still be in store.

Many areas have had wet weather and planting delays, which caused a sparkle to return to the corn and soybean markets in May. For some areas, that has continued through June. The areas of Minnesota, northwest Iowa and eastern South Dakota are among the areas still reeling from too much water. When will the market have a handle on planted/harvested acres from those areas?

We had hot and dry conditions here locally until the last two weeks, which many had thought might be the smoke to start the grain markets marching upward. You may recall the Canadian wildfire smoke was a big story last summer as it tempered some of the sunshine and heat that we were experiencing in the Corn Belt during the early part of the growing season.

June 28 report fizzled

We are now past the June 28 stocks/acreage report. While the market may have been surprised by the significantly higher corn acreage number, the report didn’t give us the big bang many hoped to see.

When we look at the report, as it compares to the June trade estimates and the final USDA corn acreage numbers in the chart below, we see that history shows the fireworks show isn’t over.

Looking at the same numbers and reports for soybeans in the chart below, you can see that, conversely to corn:

As we all know, there is much more to be written before the grand finale of any good fireworks show: pollination and pod set weather, overseas demand and purchases and elections, to name a few. Which will provide the spark that may ignite a rally? Will the soybean market rally this year?

Don’t let your marketing plan explode before your very eyes. Having price floors in place while staying disciplined during the summer growing season is key. Hopefully, you already made some sales and have offers in place so you are ready to capitalize on opportunities whenever they may come. Those opportunities may be for both your 2024 crop and the 2025 crop.

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The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Farm Futures or Farm Progress.