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Weekly Grain Movement: Analysts miss the mark

Corn volume jumps above all trade estimates, while soybeans and wheat fade lower than expected.

Ben Potter, Senior editor

May 20, 2024

2 Min Read
Corn on barge for export
Getty Images/sandsun

USDA’s latest grain export inspection report, out Monday morning and covering the week through May 16, showed data that didn’t line up with analyst expectations. Corn volume once again led the way after moving moderately higher week-over-week and bested the entire range of trade guesses. Soybean inspections slumped to less than half of the prior week’s volume, meantime, and wheat inspections were also lackluster.

Corn export inspections trended more than 20% higher week-over-week to reach 47.7 million bushels. That was also better than the entire set of analyst estimates, which ranged between 35.4 million and 47.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still trending moderately above last year’s pace after reaching 1.386 billion bushels.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn export inspections last week, with 16.6 million bushels. China, Japan, Taiwan and Saudi Arabia rounded out the top five.

Sorghum export inspections shifted slightly below the prior week’s tally to 4.9 million bushels. The entirety of that grain is bound for China. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still nearly tripling last year’s pace so far, with 190.7 million bushels.

Soybean export shipments were down noticeably week-over-week after only reaching 6.8 million bushels. That was also below the entire range of analyst estimates, which came in between 7.3 million and 15.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still tracking moderately below last year’s pace after reaching 1.424 billion bushels.

Japan was the No. 1 destination for U.S. soybean export inspections last week, with 2.2 million bushels. Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Colombia filled out the top five.

Wheat export inspections were disappointing after only reaching 7.6 million bushels last week. That was below all trade estimates, which ranged between 11.0 million and 18.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still slightly trailing last year’s pace so far, with 656.6 million bushels.

The Philippines topped all destinations for U.S. wheat export inspections last week, with 2.4 million bushels. Thailand, Mexico, Japan and Haiti rounded out the top five.

Click here for more highlights from the latest USDA grain export inspection report, which covers the week through May 16.

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Exports

About the Author(s)

Ben Potter

Senior editor, Farm Futures

Senior Editor Ben Potter brings two decades of professional agricultural communications and journalism experience to Farm Futures. He began working in the industry in the highly specific world of southern row crop production. Since that time, he has expanded his knowledge to cover a broad range of topics relevant to agriculture, including agronomy, machinery, technology, business, marketing, politics and weather. He has won several writing awards from the American Agricultural Editors Association, most recently on two features about drones and farmers who operate distilleries as a side business. Ben is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism.

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