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Today was a good reminder that markets are hard to predict and don’t always act “rationally.” From sharp cuts in Russian production to a large flash sale for soybeans, there were plenty of bullish cues for traders to run with. Indeed, grain prices were in the green this morning until a pattern of technical selling pushed them back into the red. Corn prices were down almost 1%. Soybeans moved modestly lower. Wheat prices generally settled 5 to 8 cents lower.

Plenty of rain is expected to fall across the central U.S. between Thursday and Sunday – particularly in the Mid-South, which could gather 3” or more later this week, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts wetter-than-normal weather for most of the Midwest and Plains between May 22 and May 28, with seasonally warm weather building across the southern U.S. during this time.

On Wall St., the Dow improved 277 points in afternoon trading to 39,838 and the S&P 500 surpassed 5,300 points for the first time ever on the heels of some lower-than-expected inflation data. Energy futures were also in the green, with crude oil trending 0.9% higher to $78 per barrel. Diesel found modest gains of around 0.25%, while gasoline rose 1.5%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.

On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soymeal (+4,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-4,500), soybeans (-3,500), soyoil (-6,500) and CBOT wheat (-6,000).

Corn

Corn prices tested moderate gains on Wednesday morning before reversing lower, succumbing to a round of technical selling and losses of nearly 1%. July futures dropped 4.5 cents to $4.63, with September futures down 4.25 cents to $4.7375.

Corn basis bids tracked 4 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal and 8 cents lower at an Iowa processor while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Wednesday.

Ethanol production improved to a daily average of 1.000 million barrels in the week through May 10, making it the first week it has matched or surpassed the 1-million-barrel-per-day benchmark since early April. Ethanol stocks inched 1% higher last week.

Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn sales ranging between 27.6 million and 47.2 million bushels for the week ending May 9.

Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s corn exports will reach 32.6 million bushels in May, which is moderately above the group’s prior projection from a week ago.

Meantime, Brazilian consultancy Cogo estimates that the country’s 2023/24 corn production will reach 4.516 billion bushels. That’s an 11.5% decline from the group’s initial forecast.

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France’s farm ministry expects the country’s corn plantings to reach 3.558 million acres this season, which would be a year-over-year increase of 9.6%, if realized. In contrast, the country’s soft wheat acres are expected to decline 7.5% this season, with an estimated 10.873 million acres. France is Europe’s top grain producer.

Corn settlements on Tuesday were for 494,480 contracts.

Soybean

Soybean prices followed other grains lower on Wednesday, but losses were largely kept in check by a large sale announced to unknown destinations this morning. July futures eased 0.25 cents to $12.1425, with August futures dropping 1.5 cents to $12.1675.

The rest of the soy complex was mixed. July soymeal futures tilted 0.3% lower, while July soyoil futures tracked 0.3% higher.

Soybean basis bids held steady across the central U.S. on Wednesday.

Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 6.6 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations. Two-thirds of the total are for delivery during the current marketing year, with the remainder for delivery in 2024/25. Click here for a more robust list of recent large flash sales.

Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean sales ranging between 11.0 million and 23.9 million bushels for the week ending May 9. Analysts also expect to see soymeal sales ranging between 100,000 and 575,000 metric tons, plus up to 22,000 MT of soyoil sales.

Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports will reach 519.2 million bushels in May, which is modestly higher than its prior projection from a week ago. Anec also expects to see Brazilian soymeal exports reach 2.43 million metric tons this month.

Brazil’s Cogo consultancy estimates that the country’s 2023/24 soybean production will reach 5.460 billion bushels, which is a 9.1% decline from its initial forecast. However, Cogo expects Brazilian soybean production will rebound to 6.054 billion bushels in the upcoming 2024/25 season.

Soybean settlements on Tuesday were for 198,849 contracts.

Wheat

Wheat prices failed to protect Wednesday morning gains after traders shifted to a pattern of technical selling that left some contracts down more than 1%. July Chicago SRW futures dropped 5.5 cents to $6.67, July Kansas City HRW futures lost 7.5 cents to $6.7575, and July MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 6.75 cents to $7.2650.

Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show wheat sales ranging between 7.3 million and 25.7 million bushels in the week through May 9.

Russian consultancy Sovecon cut its estimates for the country’s 2024 wheat production, moving it to 3.149 billion bushels. The move was largely due to recent frost damage. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.

Thailand purchased 2.2 million bushels of animal feed wheat from optional origins in a tender that recently closed. The grain is for shipment starting in late June.

Jordan issued a new tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on May 21. The grain is for shipment starting in mid-June.

CBOT wheat settlements on Tuesday were for 146,912 contracts.