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Prices updated as of 6:55am CDT.

FFTF updates

Were you able to get into the fields last weekend? Are your alfalfa fields fighting off weevil pressures? Share your insights with us in our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey!

Feedback from the Field is an open-sourced, ongoing farmer survey of current crop and weather conditions across the Heartland. If you would like to participate at any time throughout the growing season, click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!

Corn

Corn prices rose $0.02-$0.04/bushel this morning, tracking spillover strength from the wheat complex, but also deriving support from tightening South American exportable supplies and a weaker dollar.

Sometimes the minor events where nothing happens are more significant than when something big actually happens.

Yesterday, a D.C. appellate court upheld biofuel blending volumes enforced by the EPA under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The oil industry had challenged these volumes (again) in hopes that smaller refiners could receive blending exemptions during the 2020-2022 time frame.

When these volumes are debated, there is always a high risk that the blending volumes could shrink, which could reduce biofuel production, like ethanol and/or renewable diesel. But with the D.C. circuit court upholding the EPA’s actions, farmers can rest easy.

"Thanks to the D.C. Circuit opinion, EPA can ensure the integrity of its annual (Renewable Volume Obligation) and address shifts in market conditions and how refiners meet their blending obligations," Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor said in a statement yesterday, as reported by Reuters.

Soybeans

Soybean markets are trading up this morning, due in large part to uncertainty about South American production and a weaker dollar. Soybean futures rose $0.04-$0.05/bushel this morning, sending Jul24 futures to $12.1925/bushel and new crop Nov24 prices to $12.09/bushel on the sentiments.

Soyoil prices rebounded slightly this morning after yesterday’s news that the new tariff increases on Chinese imports would exclude used cooking oil. Soyoil prices had experienced a furious rally higher in recent days on hopes that the tariffs would include used cooking oil imports, providing an uptick in demand for domestic-produced U.S. soyoil for renewable diesel production.

But tightening domestic soymeal supplies are keeping prices in the soy complex on the upswing this morning. Soymeal futures tracked as much as 1% higher in the early morning trading session as many crushing facilities across the Heartland are taking downtime for maintenance amid shrinking crushing margins.

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will publish its members’ crush volumes for April 2024 today. NOPA members handle approximately 95% of oilseeds crushed in the U.S. every year.

Pre-report trade estimates are calling for the April 2024 crush to range between 173.980 million – 191 million bushels. It’s a wide range, which suggests that markets are unsure about April processing volumes.

The average trade guess was quoted at 183.072 million bushels. If realized, that would be a nearly 7% drop from the March 2024 record high of 196.4 million bushels. With one fewer day on the calendar, the market seems resigned that April crush volumes will trail below their March 2024 counterparts.

But the more concerning trend would be the drop in daily production. Not including January 2024 when many plants were forced to close due to cold and snowy weather, daily crush rates have averaged 6.341 million bushels per day since last October.

If the average analyst guess of 183.072 million bushels is realized in today’s report, that will drop daily crush rates for April 2024 to 6.1 million bushels/day – the lowest since last September (not counting the glitchy January 2024 crush month).

The April 2024 crush is still expected to set a record volume for the largest April crush in history, even though the volumes could pale in comparison to the peaks we’ve seen earlier in the 2023/24 marketing year.

Wheat

Wheat prices were revived once more this morning on worries about Russian crops following drought and frost events in Russia’s Southern Plains. Many industry groups are cutting not only Russian production forecasts, but forecasts for Northern Hemisphere production as well amid less than favorable spring conditions in the top half of the globe.

U.S. wheat futures rallied $0.10-$0.15/bushel higher on the sentiments.

"In recent months, weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have gradually deteriorated for the new wheat crop," Andrey Sizov, head of Black Sea ag consultancy Sovecon, said in a note. "This situation intensified in early May when, instead of the much-needed rain, Russian winter wheat experienced a severe cold snap."

In the U.S., the winter wheat tour is underway in Kansas where rains are expected to greet crop watchers, but will hopefully improve conditions. Rains are also in the forecast for Southern Russia this week. The trade will be responsive to any news in the next couple days of crop improvements for both regions.

Weather

Scattered showers are in the forecast today for most of the Heartland, with the exception of Illinois, Michigan, and Eastern Wisconsin, according to the National Weather Service’s short-range forecasts.

Most of today’s showers should be light, with accumulation ranging between a tenth to a half inch over the next 24 hours. For most growers across the Heartland, that means that rain delays could be kept to a minimum.

But rainfall totals could reach over an inch in the northern Red River Valley as well as in Southeast Kansas and Northeastern Oklahoma over the next 24 hours, causing more extended planting delays in the Northern Plains.

More showers will move slowly across the Plains across the Upper Midwest over the next 24-48 hours before finally cycling out of the Eastern Corn Belt by Friday afternoon. Clear skies will follow as the weekend sets in, providing farmers a chance to keep those planters rolling ahead of Monday’s next Crop Progress report.

Looking ahead to the middle of next week, NOAA’s 6-10-day forecast is calling for above average temperatures from the area east of the Southwest to the Great Lakes and New England. The Pacific Northwest, West Coast, and Upper Plains can expect to see below average temperatures during that time. An above average chance of showers will continue to linger over the Heartland during the middle of next week.

Cooler temperatures will move into the Upper Midwest late next week, according to NOAA’s 8-14-day outlook. Temperatures in the Southern Plains and Southern Corn Belt will still remain above average, but temperatures throughout the Central Corn Belt will return to seasonal averages during that time. Above average chances for showers will continue to hover over the entire Heartland region late next week, but the highest chances will center over Missouri and its surrounding states.

Financials

Wall Street futures wavered between gains and losses during the overnight hours, with the S&P 500 last trading 0.01% higher to $5,270.25 this morning. Markets are eagerly awaiting consumer price index (CPI) data this morning that could provide fresh insights about the Federal Reserve’s direction on interest rates.

“Economists forecast a slight cool down, with prices seen rising 3.4% from a year earlier,” Anna Hirtenstein wrote for the Wall Street Journal this morning. “The past three CPI releases have been surprisingly hot, causing investors to pull back expectations for interest-rate cuts.”

Yesterday’s producer-price index (PPI) published revised March 2024 figures that pointed to lower price increases, though the April 2024 data still ran hotter than economists would have preferred to see.

In a moderated discussion in Amsterdam yesterday, Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is still very much in a “wait and see” mode with regards to the recent data updates and the Fed’s plan for interest rate changes.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: