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Prices updated as of 7:00am CDT.

Good morning!

Except to policy editor Joshua Baethge and the Dallas Stars, who are now ahead of my Colorado Avalanche 3-1 in round two of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Colorado’s Val Nichushkin was suspended just hours before the game, which I am convinced was a setup by a certain ag policy editor and Stars fan.

Sidenote – Nichushkin’s suspension may be legit. He disappeared (my theory: he was disappeared by the Russian mob) last year during the Avs’ post-season run against the Seattle Kraken after a woman was found barely conscious in his hotel room. Hockey teams are notoriously private about their players, so naturally Denver sports radio filled that vacuum and my husband and I got pretty invested in all the Nichushkin drama and speculation.

But since they lost, I’m being forced to share Josh’s latest article about USDA’s aid for bovine influenza as well as his thoughts on the game. I hate losing.

Now that was a good hockey game. The Stars winning 5-1 is more than I could have hoped for. Dallas will take the series with one more win, and Jacquie and I can be friends again (I think).

Do I feel bad that one of the Avs best players was suspended hours before puck drop?  Maybe just a little.  But how can you not love Wyatt Johnston scoring two goals the night he turned 21? Let’s just hope he didn’t celebrate by doing whatever Val Nichushkin was doing (too soon Jacquie?)

Start making plans for a hundred-degree parade.  The Stanley Cup is coming to Dallas in June!

Clarification: Josh isn’t mad about Nichushkin being out – Josh is just bitter Nichushkin underperformed when Dallas drafted him. Jury’s out on whether Josh and I will still be friends after this.

FFTF updates

Over the past couple weeks, farmers around the country have been frustrated by persistent showers, cool temperatures, and few opportunities for meaningful planting progress. Farmers are frustrated, but they aren’t factoring yield losses – yet.

“[It’s been] nothing, nothing, [then planting] 18 hours a day for five days in a row and then nothing, nothing [again],” a Northern Illinois corn grower explained.

“We've been waiting for ground to dry out, but planting has gone smooth so far,” a Northern Indiana producer’s comments perfectly summed up current farmer sentiment. “We were glad to get the rain as our subsoils were dry, but we were glad they quit for a while.”

For more comments and updated weather outlooks, check out our latest FFTF article on the Farm Futures website.

Will you have enough clear days this weekend to make meaningful planting progress? Are your alfalfa fields fighting off weevil pressures? Share your insights with us in our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey!

Feedback from the Field is an open-sourced, ongoing farmer survey of current crop and weather conditions across the Heartland. If you would like to participate at any time throughout the growing season, click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google™ MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!

Corn

Planting delays in the Heartland are finally providing a price boost for corn this morning. Corn futures rose $0.01-$0.03/bushel as planting paces lag in the Heartland, with nearby Jul24 prices within striking distance of a six-month high at $4.7375/bushel this morning.

Even though USDA reporting advancing corn planting progress last week in the face of multiple rain events across the Heartland, planting speeds still remain woefully below historical benchmarks for this time of year.

Through the week ending May 12, USDA’s Crop progress report published yesterday found that 49% of the nation’s corn crop had been planted, up 13% from the prior week, but still lagging 5% behind the five-year average for the same reporting period.

Corn planting speeds are now equal to those of 2022 for reference. Monday’s corn planting data came in aligned with pre-report analyst estimates, so the data did not substantially rock the corn markets during the early morning trading hours.

The “I”-states continue to lead the lag behind historical paces and farmers in the region are growing increasingly frustrated by the lack of planting progress they have been able to make over the past couple weeks. And some of that frustration is likely justified.

Academic papers vary on what is the exact date that the yield window closes for corn this time of year. Some say corn needs to be 80% planted by May 20, others say 50% by May 15. At any rate, Monday’s data shows that we are running behind, though the situation is nowhere near as dire as in 2019.

I expect that prices will increase their responsiveness to planting delays this week, particularly if forecasted showers in the Heartland this week drop heavy accumulation. Warm temperatures should help to speed up the time it takes for fields to dry out, but those corn yields are officially on the clock after this week.

A silver lining? Emergence rates are thriving, even if planting is running behind. Through Sunday, 23% of the crop had emerged, up 11% from the previous week and 2% of the five-year average benchmark.

Soybeans

Soybean prices fell $0.07-$0.12/bushel this morning as corn planting delays increase the likelihood of more soybeans being planted in the U.S. The additional supply prospect offset recent worries about flooding in Southern Brazil to weigh heavily on the soy market this morning. An early morning Brazilian soybean production estimate increase from Conab also contributed to soy’s losses.

Soybean planting progress remains ahead of schedule – for now. Through last Sunday, 35% of the crop had been planted, up 10% from the previous week. But planting speeds began to show signs of weather hiccups this week.

Pre-report analyst estimates had pegged last week’s planting progress at 39% complete. Monday’s soybean planting figure remains ahead of the five-year average, but now that lead has narrowed to only 1%.

We aren’t worried about soybean yields yet. But similar to corn, emergence rates are looking good so far this season. As of May 12, 16% of the crop had emerged, up 7% from last week and 6% ahead of the five-year average.

Wheat

Wheat prices backed off a late-night rally fueled by short-covering this morning, with prices falling $0.03-$0.05/bushel as markets closely eye an advancing Russian offensive in Ukraine.

"Short-covering by speculators is exaggerating the price rise, driven by Russia's advances in Ukraine and downgrades to Russian production," Commonwealth Bank analyst Dennis Voznesenski told Reuters this morning.

"Time remains for Russian wheat conditions to improve and alleviate market anxieties," analysts at Rural Bank wrote in a note, as reported by Reuters. "So we can expect markets to stay volatile in the short-term."

Winter wheat conditions were held unchanged from the previous week at 50% good to excellent in yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA. Markets had been hoping to see a 1% ratings improvement yesterday due to recent rain showers in the Southern Plains, but there was no such luck.

Spring wheat planting continues to run ahead of schedule, with 61% of planting completed as of May 12. While markets had been hoping that total would stand at 63% following yesterday’s Crop Progress report, spring wheat planting remains 13% ahead of the five-year average thanks to a warm El Niño winter along the Canadian border.

Weather

Yesterday’s showers will linger over the Eastern Corn Belt today through Wednesday. And even though the Upper Midwest will be spared some today’s showers, another thunderstorm system is expected to move into the Western Plains by tomorrow evening and linger over the region through tomorrow.

That means we will likely continue to see spotty planting progress this week.

Financials

Consumer price index (CPI) data is published tomorrow morning, so markets are eager for the latest inflation readings to wager how the Federal Reserve may – or may not – change its interest rate strategy. The producer price index (PPI) will be updated today, providing more inflationary data for markets.

In the meantime, the S&P 500’s meager gains this morning (the index is trading 0.02% higher to $5,246.50) are largely being attributed to a revival of meme stocks AMC and Gamestop.

Do you get déjà vu?!

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: