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Grain prices faded into the red on Tuesday after traders locked in profits from the recent rally, leading to a round of technical selling. Corn and soybean prices saw modest losses, with wheat taking on heavier cuts after USDA showed better-than-expected crop quality ratings in its most recent crop progress report.

Additional rains will push through the central U.S. between Wednesday and Saturday – especially in the eastern Corn Belt – per NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet conditions for the southern half of the country between May 15 and May 21, with warmer-than-normal temperatures returning to the Midwest and Plains.

On Wall St., the Dow inched 13 points higher in afternoon trading to 38,865 and will find gains for the fifth consecutive session if it stays in the green by the close. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil was near-even, staying above $78 per barrel. Diesel trended 0.25% higher, while gasoline spilled 1.5% lower. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.

On Monday, commodity funds were significant buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+7,000), soybeans (+14,000), soymeal (+6,500), soyoil (+2,500) and CBOT wheat (+11,500).

Corn

Corn prices suffered a modest technical setback as traders begin for the next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA, out Friday morning. May futures dropped 3.25 cents to $4.5375, with July futures down 1.75 cents to $4.6725.

Corn basis bids eroded 5 cents lower at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.

Corn plantings reached 36% completion through Sunday, up from 27% in the prior week. Analysts were generally expecting to see more progress after offering an average trade guess of 39%. That leaves this year’s pace slower than 2023’s mark of 42% and the prior five-year average of 39%. North Dakota (11%) and Michigan (12%) have the longest path to completion of the top 18 production states. Twelve percent of this season’s corn crop is now emerged.

Ahead of Friday morning’s WASDE report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn yield potential at 180.3 bushels per acre, which would lead to a total production of 14.887 billion bushels, if realized. Analyst production estimates ranged between 14.578 billion and 15.342 billion bushels.

South Korea purchased 2.7 million bushels of animal feed corn from South America in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival by the end of August.

It pays to think a little bit about contract laws, according to Will McKinley, partner at Menn Law Firm. In particular, several states have a statue called the Auto-Renewal Law, which makes contracts that automatically renew unenforceable unless certain conditions are met. McKinley takes a closer look at some rules surrounding these laws – click here to learn more.

Corn settlements on Monday were for 427,550 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybean prices followed other grains lower, but losses were fairly minimal as traders continue to assess damage from recent Brazilian flooding. May futures dropped 2.5 cents to $12.3225, with July futures down 3.5 cents to $12.4525.

The rest of the soy complex was mixed. July soymeal futures stumbled more than 1.25% lower, while July soyoil futures tracked more than 1.25% higher.                                                                                

Soybean basis bids fell 5 cents at an Iowa processor and tracked 2 to 3 cents lower at two interior river terminals while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.

Soybean plantings reached 25% through Sunday, up from 18% in the prior week. That’s behind 2023’s pace of 30% but still ahead of the prior five-year average of 21%. Analysts were expecting to see more progress noted after offering an average trade guess of 28%. Mississippi (67%) and Arkansas (65%) continue to lead the way among the top 18 production states so far. Nine percent of this season’s soybean crop is now emerged.

As another crop season kicks off, Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland is assembling a new batch of Feedback from the Field updates, which is populated with farmer comments from around the Heartland. Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. Holland reviews and uploads results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country.

Recent major flooding in southern Brazil is now rail and road access. Some trucks had to travel an additional 400 kilometers (nearly 250 miles) to get grain to ports. This is unfolding in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is a major producer of soybeans, corn, wheat and other agricultural commodities. Here’s some footage that shows just how severe the situation is:

Prior to Friday morning’s WASDE report from USDA, analysts anticipate that the agency will show average soybean yields of 51.9 bushels per acre, which would generate a total production of 4.440 billion bushels, if realized. Individual production estimates ranged between 4.165 billion and 4.554 billion bushels.

Soybean settlements on Monday were for 391,462 contracts.

Wheat

Wheat prices suffered a moderate technical setback on the heels of the latest crop progress data from USDA, which showed quality ratings improving more than expected. July Chicago SRW futures dropped 5.5 cents to $6.4325, July Kansas City HRW futures lost 11 cents to $6.6425, and July MGEX spring wheat futures fell 6.5 cents to $7.19.

Winter wheat quality ratings trended one point higher last week, with 50% of the crop now rated in good-to-excellent condition. Analysts were expecting to see quality ratings hold steady. Another 34% of the crop is rated fair (down one point from last week), with the remaining 16% rated poor or very poor (steady from last week). Physiologically, 43% of the crop is now headed, up from 30% last week.

Spring wheat plantings moved from 34% last week up to 47% through May 5. That’s well above 2023’s pace of 21% and the prior five-year average of 31%.

Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 4.2 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia that closes on Thursday. Of the total, 41% is expected to be sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment in July.

CBOT wheat settlements on Monday were for 160,286 contracts.