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Grain prices were back in the green on Monday as traders continued to focus on last Friday’s WASDE data along with ongoing weather woes being reported in Russia, which received more yield-damaging frosts over the weekend. The result was double-digit gains for wheat, and the ensuing spillover strength helped pull corn and soybean prices into the green today.

A band of rains stretching from southeast Kansas through the Carolinas is expected to deliver another 1” or more between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the central U.S. between May 20 and May 26, with colder-than-normal temperatures moving into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest next week.

On Wall St., the Dow slid 51 points lower in afternoon trading to 39,461 as investors brace for the next set of inflation data, out later this week. Energy futures were back in the green, with crude oil rising 1% to $79 per barrel. Diesel found fractional gains, while gasoline trended around 0.4% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.

On Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+13,500), soybeans (+7,000), soyoil (+6,000) and CBOT wheat (+11,000) contracts but were net sellers of soymeal (-1,500).

Corn

Corn prices found moderate gains on a round of technical buying that was partly spurred by wet forecasts that could lead to more planting delays in some areas. Spillover strength from wheat lent further support. May futures added 2.75 cents to $4.5850, with July futures up 2 cents to $4.7175.

Corn export inspections reached 36.9 million bushels, which was moderately below the prior week’s tally of 51.1 million bushels. That was also toward the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 22.6 million and 57.1 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 12.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year reached 1.336 billion bushels, which is still tracking moderately above last year’s pace so far.

Prior to this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn plantings move from 36% completion a week ago up to 49% through May 12. Individual trade guesses ranged between 44% and 53%.

In the latest edition of Feedback From The Field, farmers largely expressed frustration over soggy field conditions but did report some planting progress over the past couple of weeks. Click here to see how your neighbors are faring so far this season and learn how you can participate!

If you missed last Friday’s market-moving WASDE report from USDA, farm broadcaster Mike Pearson has a solid five-minute recap in today’s edition of Farm Progress America – click here to listen.

Ukraine’s 2023/24 grain exports as of May 13 have included 944.8 million bushels of corn sales, plus an additional 602.6 million bushels of wheat sales since last July, according to the latest data from the country’s agriculture ministry. Ukraine is among the world’s top exporters of both commodities.

South Korean importers purchased 2.7 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from South America or South Africa, in a private deal that closed on Friday. The grain is for arrival in late September.

Large speculators trimmed their net short position in corn by 9,135 contracts to 138,856 in the week through May 7.

Corn settlements on Friday were for 445,481 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybean prices followed other grains higher on some net technical buying but weren’t able to move the needle very much. May futures picked up half a penny to $12.0550, while July futures inched 0.25 cents higher to $12.1925.

The rest of the soy complex was mixed. July soymeal futures faded more than 1.25% lower, while July soyoil futures tracked almost 0.75% higher.                           

Soybean export inspections improved to 14.9 million bushels last week. That was better than the entire set of trade guesses, which ranged between 7.3 million and 14.7 million bushels. Egypt was the No. 1 destination, with 5.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year remain moderately lower than last year’s pace after reaching 1.453 billion bushels.

Ahead of Monday afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean plantings move from 25% last week up to 39% through Sunday. Individual trade guesses ranged between 33% and 46%.

Brazilian consultancy Patria Agronegocios slightly lowered its estimates for the country’s 2023/24 soybean production after offering a new projection of 5.248 billion bushels, which is one of the more bearish estimates out there right now. In contrast, the consultancy slightly raised its estimates for Brazil’s 2023/24 total corn crop, which moved to 4.558 billion bushels.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is expecting neutral ENSO conditions in the very near future, with a likelihood for a return to La Niña conditions by late summer. During these events, cold water in the Pacific Ocean causes the jet stream to push northward. This can lead to drier weather in the southern U.S., along with heavy rains and large snow events in the Pacific Northwest.

Large speculators slashed their net short position in soybeans by 82,062 contracts to 80,011 in the week through May 7.

Soybean settlements on Friday were for 243,422 contracts.

Wheat

Wheat prices leapt noticeably higher on Monday as the focus remains on some weather-related challenges that are ongoing in Russia (the world’s No. 1 exporter). July Chicago SRW futures rose 23.25 cents to $6.8675, July Kansas City HRW futures climbed 25.5 cents to $6.9875, and July MGEX spring wheat futures gained 13.75 cents to $7.3375.

Wheat export inspections moved modestly above the prior week’s tally after reaching 13.5 million bushels. That was still toward the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 10.1 million and 18.4 million bushels. China was the No. 1 destination, with 4.2 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are still slightly below last year’s pace, with 648.5 million bushels.

Prior to this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show spring wheat plantings move from 47% a week ago up to 63% through May 12. For winter wheat, analysts think USDA will show a slight increase in quality ratings, with 51% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through as of Sunday.

Russian consultancy Sovecon estimates that the country’s wheat exports will reach 150.6 million bushels in May, which would be a month-over-month reduction of 10.9%, if realized. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.

Large speculators trimmed their net short position for CBOT wheat by 6,817 contracts to 79,082 in the week through May 7.

CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 158,071 contracts.