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Prices updated as of 6:55am CDT.

Good morning, all you sports fans…except one!

I’m calling out my policy editor colleague and Dallas Stars fan this morning – Joshua Baethge. As you may know, my household has vociferously declared its loyalty to the Colorado Avalanche as my husband is a die-hard Avs fan (and Patrick Roy fanboy after playing goalie on his club teams growing up)!

Josh’s Dallas Stars and our Colorado Avs will square off tonight in Dallas at 8:30pm CDT in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. It’s the sixth time both teams have met in the playoffs, so you know this series will be exciting. The winner of the Central Division series will go on to face the winner of the Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers series (Pacific Division) in the Western Conference Finals.

Dallas has some depth advantages, but Colorado has a lot of star power from Nathan MacKinnon. Val Nichushkin (Ni-CHOO-shkin) grabbed his first hat trick in Game 4 against the Winnipeg Jets last week, defenseman Cale Makar is only heating up as the post season drags on, and The Moose (Mikko Rantanen) WILL be LOOSE after leading scorers in the Avs’ Game 5 win. It’ll come down to a battle between the forwards – and it’s gonna be a good one!

Josh and I have already had some heated discussions about this rivalry, but shots were fired over the Teams chat yesterday. So, over the next week or two (but hopefully on the shorter side if the Avs DESTROY the Stars), expect to see some extra smack talk AND ag policy news in this space.

I wish Josh’s hockey choices were as good as his recent Farm Bill proposal coverage. BOOM!

Feedback from the Field

Planting progress stalled across the Heartland last week. How did your farm fare? Share your insights with us in our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey!

Feedback from the Field is an open-sourced, ongoing farmer survey of current crop and weather conditions across the Heartland. If you would like to participate at any time throughout the growing season, click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google™ MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!

Corn

Corn prices fell $0.01-$0.02/bushel lower overnight after nearby prices closed at a four-month high during yesterday’s trading session. Crop Progress planting delays couldn’t keep the profit-takers away from the grains and oilseeds complex however, and most actively traded Jul24 futures fell to $4.675/bushel on the sentiment while new crop Dec24 prices dipped to $4.87/bushel at last glance.

Markets are awaiting updated old and new crop supply and usage information from USDA ahead of Friday’s WASDE report, especially for South American updates. And despite rain delays across the U.S. Heartland over the past week, traders don’t appear to be worried about delayed corn plantings yet.

Leafhopper damage and accompanying ear diseases continue to remain the market’s top focus for Argentina’s corn crop. We are still waiting for USDA to make potential revisions to Argentina’s 2023/24 corn production estimate on Friday, but Argentine farmers are already grappling with lower yields during harvest.

"Many are going to reduce their hectares of corn to zero," Anibal Cordoba, a producer in northern Chaco province, told Reuters. "You normally found leafhoppers in the bud of the plants if you looked. But this year you go to the field and you find clouds of leafhopper. It's just crazy."

Climate change is a key driver for the infestation. Frosts kill the grasshoppers, but Argentina is experiencing fewer and lighter frosts due to shifts in long-term weather patterns.

"We should be talking about an Argentine production of more than 60 million tons of corn and because of this insect we are talking about 50.5 (million tons)," Cristian Russo, head of agricultural estimates at the Rosario grains exchange (BCR), told Reuters.

Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA had the markets hoping that spring planting progress kept on moving last week even as farmers dodged showers across the Corn Belt. But Mother Nature had other ideas.

Through the week ending May 5, corn planting progress dipped below the five-year average for the first time in the current growing season, with USDA reporting 36% of the crop planted as of Sunday. That was only a 9% improvement from the previous week as planting paces stalled across the Heartland and 3% behind the five-year average benchmark.

Adding insult to injury, 42% of the corn crop had been planted by the same time last year, fueling more market and farmer jitters about planting progress.

Pre-report analyst estimates were optimistic farmers were further along with planting than what USDA indicated yesterday. The pre-report average was 39% complete. A wide range of guesses (between 34%-44%) suggests that the soggy conditions in the Heartland last week made it difficult for market watchers to predict how much planting progress was made during that time.  

Only moderate weekly gains were throughout key corn-growing states. The largest planting gains were reported to the east of the Corn Belt in North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. But those states barely accounted for 7% of 2023 corn production, so planting gains in these states were not enough to offset slow paces in the Midwest.

Persistent showers across the “I”-states, which comprise the heart of the Corn Belt, as well as the Upper Midwest allowed farmers only three to four days of suitable fieldwork conditions throughout the reporting week. Growers in the Plains had a little extra time, but not much. Suitable fieldwork days ranged between 3.7 and 5.8 between North Dakota and Oklahoma, with wetter conditions further north.

This seems a little higher than the prior week’s suitable days for fieldwork. But I suspect – based on anecdotes through the grapevine – that even if soil conditions looked good on the surface, farmers were still unable to make meaningful planting progress last week.

“The topsoil looked dry, but everything underneath it was soaked,” my brother, who is an agronomist in Northwest Illinois, told me. Actually, he told my mom and my mom told me.

The slow planting speeds are not holding back crop emergence rates, however. Through the week ending Sunday, 12% of the corn crop had emerged, up 5% on the week and 3% ahead of the five-year average.

Soil temperatures are primed for corn germination. It’s just a matter of fields drying out enough to get those seeds planted.

Soybeans

Soybean prices also backed off yesterday’s four-month high close, falling $0.05-$0.08/bushel at last glance. Most actively traded Jul24 futures dropped to $12.405/bushel on a round of profit-taking while new crop Nov24 contracts dipped to $12.135/bushel.

Similar to corn, the markets shrugged off slower-than-expected soybean planting data reported by USDA yesterday. Markets appear to be taking a breather after a weather-fueled rally sent prices surging following a rain deluge in Southern Brazil, where peak soybean harvest is currently underway.

Soyoil prices enjoyed overnight gains, following competitor palm oil higher as weather issues in Malaysia and Brazil are helping to revive global edible oil prices. Soyoil stocks in the U.S. remain high, limiting early morning price gains for the soyoil complex.

Soybean planting progress also stalled out in yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA. Through the week ending May 5, 25% of expected 2024 soybean acres had been planted, up 7% from the prior week.

Even though planting paces are 5% behind year ago speeds, this week’s soybean planting completion rate was still 4% higher than the five-year average for the same reporting period. So the past week may have slowed soybean planting, but it did not have the same negative impact as what corn paces experienced during that time.

Yesterday’s Crop Progress report also marked the first time in the 2024 growing season USDA reported soybean emergence rates. Through May 5, 9% of the crop had emerged, up 2% from the same time last year and 5% ahead of the five-year average.

Wheat

Wheat prices felt the sting of a stronger dollar overnight and the bite of profit-taking after Chicago prices hit a nine-month peak yesterday. Ratings improvements for U.S. winter wheat conditions and expectations for cooler temperatures in Russia helped to calm last week’s weather worries that turned into global supply jitters.

"Concerns about a tightening of supply therefore appear exaggerated at the moment," Commerzbank analysts said of wheat, as reported by Reuters.

Traders believe that Jordan opted against a purchase for a 4.4-million-bushel wheat tender it had previously issued. The tender was cancelled earlier this morning after reports that four companies were interested in originating the sale of hard wheat.

Middle Eastern buyers comprise the second largest bloc of wheat importers in the world. It marks the second time in the past week that Jordan has rejected offers for a wheat tender and has had a bearish impact on global prices in the early morning hours.

Rains in the Plains late last week helped to boost winter wheat condition ratings by slightly more than the market was expecting in yesterday’s Crop Progress report. Through the week ending May 5, USDA rated 50% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up 1% from the previous week.

Markets had been expecting USDA would leave winter wheat ratings unchanged from last week’s report at 49% good to excellent. But Mother Nature provided a little rain relief to parched Plains soils.

Heading rates continue to advance even as 28% of U.S. winter wheat acreage remains in drought. Through last Sunday, 43% of the country’s winter wheat crop had reached the heading phase, up 13% from the previous week and 11% ahead of the five-year average.

Spring wheat planting progress also outperformed analyst expectations, despite wet weather that did not exempt the Northern Plains last week. Through last Sunday, 47% of the country’s spring wheat crop had been planted, up 13% from the prior week and 16% ahead of the five-year average for the same reporting period.

Analysts had been expecting yesterday’s spring wheat planting progress to come in at 45% complete. The Northern Plains lucked out last week and were able to avoid the heavier showers that drenched the rest of the Midwest.

Weather

Another day, another round of farmers in the Midwest dodging showers to complete 2024 planting activities. Showers will stretch across the Northern Plains, through the Upper Midwest, and into the Eastern Corn Belt and Southeast today, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts.

Severe thunderstorms are likely for the Eastern Corn Belt today. Rainfall in Wisconsin and parts of Indiana and Ohio will reach up to an inch in the next 24 hours, though surrounding areas should not see more than a half inch of accumulation during that time.

The Northwest Plains will see wind gusts reaching up to 40 mph today. Of course – it’s trash and recycling day so naturally it’s windy. I’ll be spending half my day making sure my last week’s garbage doesn’t end up flying across the neighborhood.

Farmers will likely continue to dodge showers the rest of the week. Skies will clear briefly tomorrow, but another round of thundershowers is expected to pick up in the Missouri River Valley by tomorrow afternoon. More showers will drench the Central Plains, Upper Midwest, and Eastern Corn Belt early Thursday morning.

Temperatures will continue to run above average early next week, according to NOAA's 6-10-day outlook, but only for the area west of the Mississippi River. At that time, temperatures will trend below average for the Southern Plains and Southeast. Chances for showers will finally revert to average levels for most of the Heartland, with dryness expected to pop up in the Pacific Northwest into the Dakotas. The High Plains will enjoy above average chances for rain during that time.

Warm temperatures will push further east by the middle of next week in NOAA’s 8-14-day forecast. During that time, the Plains will see the highest chances for warmer temperatures. Moisture forecasts are once again projecting an above average chance for widespread showers across the Heartland during that time.

That means that this weekend through early next week might be the best chances U.S. farmers have for making rapid planting progress as the middle of May approaches.

Financials

Wall Street futures traded flat this morning, with the S&P 500 largely unchanged from yesterday’s close at $5,206.25. Financial markets are in a bit of “wait and see” mode today as there is little economic data expected to be reported this week. Israel’s overnight tank invasion of Gaza has markets on edge early this morning, with energy futures trading slightly lower at last glance.

What is the next big black swan event in the financial markets? Honestly, no one can ever predict these things. But it doesn’t take a lot to make a good argument that commercial real estate properties and loans are increasingly creating unwelcome financial risks across the economy.

Not to add to the doom loop (but I guess I have to anyway), rising food costs are causing younger generations of consumers to take on higher debt loads. But rising rent costs and stagnant earnings growth are limiting Gen Z’s ability to contribute more actively to the overall economy.

“This is a generation that is feeling financial stress in a more acute way than millennials did a decade ago,” Charlie Wise, head of global research at credit reporting agency TransUnion, told the Wall Street Journal.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: