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Grain prices faded back into the red on Tuesday on a round of technical selling and profit-taking. Several factors were in play, including relatively strong wheat quality ratings, higher corn production estimates coming out of Brazil and more. Corn and soybeans faced moderate declines. Wheat prices saw steeper cuts, with some contracts down as much as 2% today.

Between today and Friday, most Midwestern fields will see another 0.25” to 1” or more total rainfall, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for most of the central U.S. between May 21 and May 27, with colder-than-normal temperatures moving through the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest later this month.

On Wall St., the Dow moved 95 points higher in afternoon trading to 39,527 after investors learned that March wholesale prices saw a 0.1% decline. Next up is an update to the consumer price index, out Wednesday. Energy futures sank into the red, with crude oil sliding almost 1.5% lower to just under $78 per barrel. Diesel dropped 0.75%, with gasoline down 2%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.

On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+4,500), soybeans (+3,500), soyoil (+3,000) and CBOT wheat (+12,000) but were net sellers of soymeal (-3,000).

CORN

Corn prices faced a moderate technical setback on Tuesday that led to losses of almost 1%. A flash sale to Mexico reported this morning kept prices from falling further. May futures dropped 4.75 cents to $4.5375, with July futures down 4.5 cents to $4.68.

Corn basis bids were steady to weak across the central U.S. after tracking 1 to 2 cents lower across three Midwestern locations on Tuesday.

Private exporters announced the sale of 15.9 million bushels of corn to Mexico. One-third of the total is for delivery during the current marketing year, with the remainder for delivery in 2024/25.

Corn plantings moved from 36% a week ago up to 49% through Sunday. That mirrored the average analyst estimate, with individual trade guesses ranging between 44% and 53%. Still, plantings are well below 2023’s pace of 60% and moderately behind the prior five-year average of 54%. Corn emergence improved from 12% last week up to 23% through Sunday.

In the latest edition of Feedback From The Field, farmers largely expressed frustration over soggy field conditions but did report some planting progress over the past couple of weeks. Click here to see how your neighbors are faring so far this season and learn how you can participate!

If you missed last Friday’s market-moving WASDE report from USDA, farm broadcaster Mike Pearson has a solid five-minute recap in today’s edition of Farm Progress America – click here to listen.

Brazil’s Conab slightly raised its estimates for the country’s 2023/24 total corn production after offering a new projection of 4.395 billion bushels. That will be a year-over-year reduction of 15.4%, if realized.

Corn settlements on Monday were for 507,626 contracts.

SOYBEANS

Soybean prices pushed through a choppy session on Tuesday, incurring moderate losses along the way after a round of technical selling that was spurred by spillover weakness in other commodities – soyoil in particular. May futures dropped 6.5 cents to $11.99, with July futures down 5 cents to $12.1450.

The rest of the soy complex was mixed. July soymeal futures jumped nearly 2% higher, while July soyoil futures tumbled more than 4% lower.

Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S. after trending as much as 5 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal and as much as 5 cents lower at an Iowa processor on Tuesday.

Soybean plantings moved from 25% completion a week ago up to 35% through Sunday. Analysts were generally expecting to see a swifter pace after offering an average trade guess of 39%. That puts this year’s pace significantly below 2023’s mark of 45% but still slightly above the prior five-year average of 34%. Soybean emergence reached 16%, up from 9% a week ago.

Ahead of the next monthly report from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), analysts expect the group to show an April soybean crush totaling 183.072 million bushels. If realized, it would be 6.8% below March’s record-breaking volume of 196.406 million bushels but still 5.7% higher from last April’s effort. Analysts also expects to see soyoil supplies reaching 1.882 billion pounds through April 30.

Despite recent flooding in southern Brazil, Conab raised its estimates for the country’s 2023/24 soybean production, which it now pegs at 5.426 billion bushels. The group did note that production could reverse lower if “current climate adversaries persist.” Brazil is the world’s No. 1 soybean exporter.

“Every farm operation has a variety of factors that makes it unique – that’s one of the most interesting things about family farm businesses in the U.S. – and it’s also what makes customized business planning so important for each farm operation,” according to Darren Frye, CEO of Water Street Solutions. “One size just doesn’t fit all when it comes to farming.” That said, what are the best ways to best leverage what makes your farm unique? Frye explores that question in his latest Finance First column – click here to learn more. Soybean settlements on Monday were for 225,596 contracts.

WHEAT

Wheat prices faced variable losses following a round of technical selling and profit-taking on Tuesday. Winter wheat prices suffered double-digit cuts, while spring wheat prices managed more moderate losses. July Chicago SRW futures lost 12.25 cents to $6.7475, July Kansas City HRW futures stumbled 14 cents to $6.86, and July MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 4.75 cents to $7.3350.

Winter wheat quality ratings saw some shifts this past week. The amount of the crop rated in good-to-excellent condition held steady, at 50%, while analysts were expecting to see a one-point improvement. Another 32% is rated fair (down two points from last week), with the remaining 18% rated poor or very poor (up two points from last week).  Physiologically, 57% of the crop is now headed, up from 43% last week.

Spring wheat plantings moved from 47% a week ago up to 61% through May 12. Analysts were expecting a bit more progress after offering an average trade guess of 63%. This season’s planting pace is noticeably above 2023’s pace of 35% and the prior five-year average of 48%.

Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 4.5 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia that closes on Thursday. Of the total, 20% is expected to be sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment in July.

Jordan passed on all offers in its international tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closed earlier today. Prices were regarded as too high. Jordan also rejected all offers in a similar tender that was issued a week ago.

And finally, a unique convergence of meteorological conditions has allowed the aurora borealis to descend much farther south than it typically does. Farm Progress editors from across the country have had their eyes on the night skies recently and compiled the following slide show of this phenomenon around Rural America – click here to see it!

CBOT wheat settlements on Monday were for 170,409 contracts.