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Largely bullish data in this morning’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA sent grain prices soaring on Friday, leading to double-digit gains across the board for corn, soybeans and wheat contracts. Corn prices jumped 2.75% higher, while soybeans shifted 1% higher. Wheat gains were variable, largely ranging between 2.5% and 4.5%.

More rains will be moving across the Midwest over the next several days. Some fields will only receive trace amounts, while others will gather as much as 1” or more between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for the eastern half of the country between May 17 and May 23, with near-normal temperatures for most of the central U.S. during this time.

On Wall St., the Dow moved another 75 points higher in afternoon trading to 39,462 and is on pace for an eight-day winning streak, despite some bearish consumer sentiment data that was released this morning. Energy futures faced moderate cuts, with crude oil sinking 1% lower to $78 per barrel, partly spurred by a strong U.S. Dollar. Diesel dropped 1.5%, with gasoline down around 1.25%. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.

On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat (+2,000) but were net sellers of corn (-1,000), soybeans (-6,000), soymeal (-2,000) and soyoil (-3,500).

Corn

Corn prices jumped 2.75% higher after traders digested some mostly bullish WASDE data. Spillover support from red-hot wheat prices also factored into today’s gains. May futures rose 12.5 cents to $4.5525, with July futures up 12 cents to $4.6850.

Corn basis bids faded 2 to 3 cents lower at two Midwestern ethanol plants while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.

In today’s WASDE report, USDA’s latest outlook for corn includes “larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks.” The agency expects 2024 corn production to reach 14.9 billion bushels, which Is 3% below last season’s record-breaking effort. Yields are now expected to reach 181.0 million bushels per acre, which USDA attributes to “a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.”

On a more bearish note, USDA expects total corn supplies to reach 16.9 million bushels, which is the highest volume since 2017/18. Meantime, forecasted exports increased by 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion. That would make the U.S. the world’s largest exporter for the second consecutive year.

In the latest edition of Feedback From The Field, farmers largely expressed frustration over soggy field conditions but did report some planting progress over the past couple of weeks. Click here to see how your neighbors are faring so far this season and learn how you can participate!

China is expecting its 2024/25 corn imports to be reduced sharply to 511.8 million bushels, due largely to a boost in local production. Current production estimates by China’s government is at 11.692 billion bushels.

South Korea purchased 5.2 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from South America, in a private deal that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment starting in early July.

Corn settlements on Thursday were for 329,362 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybean prices trended 1% higher following a round of technical buying on Friday, grabbing double-digit gains along the way. May futures rose 12.25 cents to $12.05, with July futures up 10.25 cents to $12.1875.

The rest of the soy complex was mixed. July soymeal futures eased 0.1% lower, while July soyoil futures climbed almost 4% higher.    

Soybean basis bids dropped 4 cents at an Iowa river terminal and 2 cents at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.

USDA’s 2024/25 outlook for soybeans includes higher supplies, crush, exports and ending stocks compared to last year. Production could reach 4.45 billion bushels, which is up 285 million bushels on increased plantings and better yields. Supplies are forecasted at 4.8 billion bushels, which is 8% higher year-over-year.

The 2024/25 U.S. soybean crush could increase 125 million bushels year-over-year to reach 2.43 billion bushels. And soybean exports are also expected to trend 125 million bushels higher to reach 1.83 billion bushels. That still leaves U.S. share of global soybean exports at 28%, versus a prior five-year average of 32%.

Brazilian consultancy AgResource slightly reduced its 2023/24 soybean production estimates to 5.313 billion bushels, citing recent flooding damage in the southern production state of Rio Grande do Sul. AgResource estimates that losses in that state are around 48.5 million bushels.

Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 227,183 contracts.

Wheat

Wheat prices found a big boost after USDA reported tightening global stocks, and as Russia continues to deal with some weather worries. July Chicago SRW futures climbed 24.25 cents to $6.6175, July Kansas City HRW futures rose 21.25 cents to $6.73, and July MGEX spring wheat futures gained 17.5 cents to $7.2125.

USDA’s first look at 2024/25 wheat includes larger supplies, modestly higher domestic use, increased exports and higher stocks, which are expected to move 6% higher. All-wheat production is expected to shift 3% higher to 1.858 billion bushels, based partly on a 0.3 bushel-per-acre bump that will lead to average yields of 48.9 bpa.

Exports could trend 55 million bushels higher to reach 775 million bushels. Ending stocks are 11% above last year, with 766 million bushels, which is the highest level in four years.

Russian consultancy Sovecon updated its 2024 wheat production estimate to 3.292 billion bushels, which is a 3.7% reduction from its prior projection in April. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.

Egypt purchased 15.4 million bushels of wheat in a contract it secured earlier this week. Of the total, 86% is sourced from Russia, with the remaining 14% sourced from Romania. Additional shipping details were not immediately available.

French farm office FranceAgriMer now estimates that 64% of the country’s current soft wheat crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition as of May 6. That’s one point better than the prior week but still substantially below last year’s pace of 94%. France is Europe’s top grain producer.

CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 109,990 contracts.