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Prices updated as of 6:55am CDT.

FFTF updates

Were you able to get into the fields last weekend? Are your alfalfa fields fighting off weevil pressures? Share your insights with us in our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey!

Feedback from the Field is an open-sourced, ongoing farmer survey of current crop and weather conditions across the Heartland. If you would like to participate at any time throughout the growing season, click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!

Corn

Corn prices followed the rally in the wheat markets this morning, rising $0.01-$0.02/bushel, sending nearby Jul24 futures to $4.64/bushel and new crop Dec24 prices to $4.885/bushel at last glance.

The short-term forecasts are largely favorable for planting progress in the Upper Midwest, even as the Eastern Corn Belt faces more showers over the next few days. Even with some showers expected today in the Central Corn Belt, the total accumulation should be light enough to prevent farmers from enduring prolonged planting delays.

Soybeans

Soybean prices wavered within a penny of gains and losses this morning. Markets are weighing reduced domestic usage rates for U.S. soybeans against supply worries in Brazil following recent floodings in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul.

Yesterday’s April 2024 crush figures from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) came in much lower than the markets had been anticipating, reviving some bearish concerns about soy prices, particularly after last week’s WASDE report that pointed to larger 2024/25 U.S. soybean supplies.

During April 2024, NOPA members crushed 166.034 million bushels of soybeans. That figure represented nearly a 30.4-million-bushel (15%) monthly decline in soy crushing rates for NOPA members, who handle 95% of U.S. soybeans destined for crush purposes.

Crush margins for processors have shrunk over the past month and export competition has eased as Brazil’s large crop comes online. Renewable diesel producers are increasingly turning to other feedstocks than soyoil – notably used cooking oil imports, beef tallow, and white grease – that are more affordable.

To be sure, crush volumes tend to dip in April based on historical trends, so the downward trending data wasn’t as surprising as was the magnitude of the decline. It marked the smallest monthly crush rate since last September and dropped daily average crush rates below the 6-million-bushel benchmark for the third time during the 2023/24 marketing year.

Soyoil stocks through April 2024 fell 5% from the previous month to 1.755 billion pounds. It marked the first time since October 2023 that U.S. soyoil stocks have declined on a monthly basis.

Analysts had been expecting soyoil stocks to increase ahead of the report, so that helped to slow the bleeding. But with fewer soybeans being crushed, soybean futures took a hit in yesterday’s trading session.

Wheat

Wheat prices led the charge for an uptick in ag markets this morning. U.S. wheat prices rose $0.09-$0.13/bushel during the overnight trading hours as markets remain on edge about frost damage to Russian crops.

Markets are still trying to evaluate the extent that the crop damage in Russia will impact global supplies. And while some of those jitters eased overnight, they were renewed early this morning when Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut estimated that 1% of Russia’s sowed wheat acreage had been killed by recent frosts in the Central and Southern Russian wheat growing regions.

French soft wheat export data was published overnight a little hotter than analysts had been expecting. The dollar weakened overnight before clawing back some gains early this morning, which also supported strength in the wheat markets.

Gains were limited by plentiful Russian export volumes and renewed optimism about Argentina’s upcoming 2024/25 crop. Early wheat yield estimates from the Kansas Winter Wheat Crop Tour are also coming in better than last year’s tour, limiting the early morning gains in the U.S. wheat market.

Weather

Today’s round of rain and thunderstorms will be centered over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys with showers continuing to linger in the Northern and Southern Plains today, according to the National Weather Service’s short-range forecasts.

Luckily, today’s showers are expected to be light – not topping more than a quarter inch for most regions within the affected area over the next 24 hours.

Skies will remain clear in the Upper Midwest until tomorrow afternoon, when showers will move east along the Canadian border. Today’s showers should reach the Eastern Corn Belt by this afternoon and will linger in the region until Saturday afternoon.

Looking ahead to the middle of next week, NOAA’s 6-10-day forecast is calling for above average temperatures from the area east of the Southwest to the Great Lakes and New England. The Pacific Northwest, West Coast, and Upper Plains can expect to see below average temperatures during that time. An above average chance of showers will continue to linger over the Heartland during the middle of next week.

Cooler temperatures will move into the Upper Midwest late next week, according to NOAA’s 8-14-day outlook. Temperatures in the Southern Plains and Southern Corn Belt will still remain above average, but temperatures throughout the Central Corn Belt will return to seasonal averages during that time. Above average chances for showers will continue to hover over the entire Heartland region late next week, but the highest chances will center over Missouri and its surrounding states.

Financials

S&P 500 futures edged 0.05% higher this morning to $5,335.75 after April 2024 consumer price index (CPI) data published yesterday came in 3.4% higher than the prior year’s reporting period. That figure remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% inflation but cooled slightly from a hotter-than-expected March 2024 inflation reading.

If the March 2024 CPI reading renewed doubts about the Fed’s interest rate policies – namely that it would hold off on cutting interest rates until inflation came down – the April 2024 CPI data revived trader optimism that the Fed may make a surprise rate cut this summer.

I’m not as optimistic as the traders – the recent guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been that the Fed is in “wait-and-see” mode. The Fed also does not like to create surprises for the market, so if there is a “surprise rate cut” coming, it will likely follow market guidance (increased unemployment, cooling inflation). Thus, I don’t expect to be all that “surprised” when– or more appropriately, if – it materializes.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: