Prices updated as of 6:55am CDT.

FFTF updates

Have you been able to keep planters rolling even amid recent showers this week? Share your insights with us in our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey!

Feedback from the Field is an open-sourced, ongoing farmer survey of current crop and weather conditions across the Heartland. If you would like to participate at any time throughout the growing season, click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google™ MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!

Corn

Corn prices inched up a penny this morning, lifting nearby Jul24 futures to $4.585/bushel and new crop Dec24 prices to $4.8275/bushel at last glance, following strength in the global wheat market.

Some market jitters were present as markets evaluated weekend forecasts featuring more rain for the Eastern Corn Belt, but those worries were largely offset by a dip in weekly corn export shipping paces reported by USDA yesterday.

Weekend weather should help advance corn planting paces in the Upper Midwest, though farmers will likely continue to dodge scattered showers in the Central Plains. It won’t be perfect planting weather, but it could provide the narrow window many growers need to close the books on 2024 corn planting.

Soybeans

Soybean prices rose $0.04-$0.11/bushel this morning, sending nearby Jul24 futures to $12.27/bushel and new crop Nov24 contracts to $12.075/bushel at last glance this morning. Southern Brazil is expected to receive more rains this weekend that could further delay soybean harvesting in the area and/or potentially cause crop damage.

Yesterday’s weekly export sales report from USDA churned out disappointing results for the grain markets. This is typically a quiet time of year for soybean shipments, but new crop soybean sales – or the lack thereof – are falling behind typical paces as Chinese buyers remain out of sight in U.S. soybean export markets.

“The upcoming U.S. soybean harvest is expected to approach record levels, but exporters had sold practically none of it as of last week, a typical time when new-crop sales may start to roll in,” Reuters market analyst Karen Braun wrote yesterday.

“As of May 9, U.S. soybean export sales for the 2024-25 marketing year starting Sept. 1 had reached just 890,387 metric tons (32.7 million bushels), a 19-year low for the date and almost two-thirds lower than a year ago. However, those sales cover just 1.8% of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s initial 2024-25 U.S. export forecast, the smallest portion in 23 years, just before the 2001-02 season.”

China’s lack of presence in U.S. new crop soybean export sales could be a political move after President Biden raised tariffs on some Chinese imports earlier this week. Chinese buyers are also increasingly reliant on Brazil’s soybean bounties, opting for the cheaper and more plentiful alternative to U.S. soybeans.

That’s not good news for U.S. soybean producers, who are expected to increase acreage this year. Without improving export prospects, these growers will be more dependent on growing soybean crush capacity for profit opportunities over the next 15-18 months.

Wheat

Wheat markets continue to remain spooked by Russian frost losses and ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine this morning, with U.S. futures rising $0.05-$0.08/bushel during the early morning hours on the sentiment.

Gains were capped by favorable yield results on the Kansas Winter Wheat tour, which concluded yesterday. However, worries about crops in the European Union surfaced overnight and kept the bulls alive in the global wheat markets this morning.

A Ukrainian drone struck a Russian oil refinery on the Black Sea overnight, raising concerns about trade stability in the Black Sea region.

"Wheat prices have continued their back-and-forth trade," commodity data platform CM Navigator said in a note, as reported by Reuters this morning. "The volatility in wheat prices has been elevated recently, which is not surprising given the frequent reports of (Russian) crop size reductions, compounded by the ongoing war risk."

Overnight, Germany’s national statistics agency updated the country’s winter wheat acreage estimates, finding that less winter wheat and rapeseed (canola) were planted last fall than the same time a year prior.

German farmers planted 6.4 million acres of winter wheat last fall, 8.3% lower than the prior year. Canola acres fell 5.8% on the year to 2.7 million acres.

These totals came in lower than expected due to soggy fall weather that prevented planting, similar to France. The two countries are the European Union’s largest wheat producers. The E.U. is the world’s second-largest wheat producer and exporter. Germany is also one of the largest oilseed producers in the E.U.

Similar to the U.S., Germany has also been losing farmland to other economic expansion projects, including home developments and expanding renewable energy facilities. Regardless, spring crop sowings increased in Germany thanks to more favorable planting conditions this spring compared to last fall.

France’s winter wheat crop continues to struggle after soggy planting conditions last fall trimmed acreage and started the crop off on a rough track. Through this past Monday, 64% of France’s soft wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition, down significantly from 93% the same time a year prior.

An impending La Niña weather pattern paired with another weather event called an Indian Ocean Dipole are having a combined effect that could be highly favorable for winter wheat crops in Argentina in the coming months.

Argentina has benefited from recent rains and even though La Niña tends to result in atypical dryness for the South American country, the Indian Ocean Dipole effect is expected to cancel out major drought risks, resulting in “almost normal rains from October to November,” according to Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange.

Yesterday, the Argentine government forecasted 2024/25 wheat sowings at 15.2 million acres, up 4% from the prior year, just days ahead of the start of winter wheat sowing season in Argentina.

That could put 2024/25 Argentine wheat production on track to produce a bumper crop, besting the previous record harvest of 814 million bushels set in 2021/22. USDA currently expects Argentina will harvest 625 million bushels of wheat in the upcoming 2024/25 marketing year, but that figure assumes normal weather patterns.

Argentina is the world’s ninth largest wheat exporter, but the timing of its crop harvest since it is in the Southern Hemisphere helped it to compete against top exporter Russia earlier this year.

Weather

Showers will continue to linger over the Eastern Corn Belt today through tomorrow afternoon. The Northern Plains could see storms and rain this evening, but that system should clear out by tomorrow afternoon, according to the National Weather Service’s short-range forecasts.

Luckily, precipitation totals in both areas will be relatively light over the next 24 hours, giving farmers a higher chance of being able to get back out into the fields later this weekend. The Red River Valley on the Minnesota-North Dakota border and the Eastern Corn Belt will not likely see more than a half inch of accumulation over the next 24 hours.

The rest of the Plains and Upper Midwest are likely to enjoy clear skies through most of the weekend, which should help advance planting rates. The Upper Plains could see a chance of thunderstorms and showers on Sunday afternoon.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: