Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!

Grain prices were mixed but mostly lower on Friday after an uneven round of technical maneuvering that led to some noticeable changes in some cases. Wheat prices tumbled 1.25% to 2% lower, while corn faded 1% lower following an ample round of technical selling. Soybeans bucked that overall trend after reports of sluggish harvest progress in some rain-laden parts of Brazil led to moderate gains today.

Some additional rains will be moving through the central U.S. between Saturday and Tuesday, with parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin likely to catch the largest totals of 0.75” or more, per the latest from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a continuation of seasonally wet weather in the Midwest and Plains between May 24 and May 30, with colder-than-normal conditions spreading through the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest.

On Wall St., the Dow tested modest gains of 41 points in afternoon trading to reach 39,911 and is on pace for a five-week winning streak. Energy futures were also firm on Friday, with crude oil rising 1% to reach $80 per barrel. Gasoline was also up around 1%, while diesel rose more than 1.5% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed fractionally.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of soybean (+1,000) and soyoil (+3,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-4,000), soymeal (-2,500) and CBOT wheat (-2,000).

Corn

Corn prices suffered a moderate technical setback on Friday that led to losses of around 1%. Despite some field delays, planting progress has generated some seasonal downward pressure in recent sessions. July futures dropped 4.25 cents to $4.5275, with September futures down 4.75 cents to $4.63.

Corn basis bids tracked a penny higher at an Illinois river terminal while trending 2 cents lower at two Midwestern ethanol plants while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.

Click here to see how your neighbors are faring so far this season and learn how you can participate!

“Most farmers who are fully planted – and even more who aren’t quite finished – are beginning to look at the probabilities of where that final corn yield estimate will end up,” notes Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland, who looked at the biggest factors farmers can expect to impact 2024 national corn yields and what that will mean for 2024/25 marketing plans in her latest E-Corn-Omics blog –

Corn settlements on Thursday were for 347,878 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybean prices moved moderately higher amid ongoing reports that Brazil’s second-largest production state of Rio Grande do Sul continues to be challenged by recent flooding. Spillover strength from the rest of the soy complex lent additional support. July futures rose 11 cents to $12.2725, with August futures up 7.5 cents to $12.2425.

The rest of the soy complex also pushed higher on Friday. July soymeal contracts shifted 3% higher, while July soyoil futures climbed more than 1.5% higher.

Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Friday but did trend 2 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal today.

Where are the best places to farm in the United States? That depends highly on who you ask and how you set that bar, obviously. Farm Futures took a deep-dive look and averaged weighted ranks of the ratios on return on assets, profit margins and asset turnover for each of the country’s 3,056 counties.

Click here to see how your county stacks up based on these criteria!
Iowa farmland prices are notoriously high, which farmers and Iowa State Extension specialists tend to attribute to several factors, including a thriving livestock industry, local processors such as ethanol plants and soybean crushers, and the emergence of wind farms.

Click here to learn more about these land value drivers.

The latest readings from the U.S. Drought Monitor, out Thursday and covering the week through May 14, doesn’t show a lot of problematic areas in the central U.S. outside of parts of Kansas, Iowa and northeast Arkansas. In fact, only 20.5% of the Midwest is currently experiencing some level of drought. That’s not a dramatic change from a year ago, when 22.2% of the region was experiencing some level of drought.

Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 174,969 contracts.

Wheat

Wheat prices stumbled lower on a round of technical selling partly spurred by expectations for a solid crop in Kansas, the nation’s largest wheat producer (more on this below). July Chicago SRW futures stumbled 12.75 cents to $6.5050, July Kansas City HRW futures lost 12.5 cents to $6.6075, and July MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 9 cents to $7.1175.

This year’s Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas wheat tour concluded yesterday and cited average yield potential at 46.5 bushels per acre after scouting nearly 450 fields between Tuesday and Thursday. That leaves this season’s production potential at more than 4 bpa above the prior five-year average of 42.4 bpa.
French farm office FranceAgriMer reported that 64% of the country’s soft wheat crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition through May 13, which was steady from a week ago but still well below last year’s pace of 93%.
Ukraine went on the offensive in overnight drone attacks that killed two Russians and caused a fire at an oil refinery at Tuapse (on the Black Sea). The extent of the damage was not immediately known. Escalations between Russia and Ukraine typically cause several commodities to push higher, including wheat and crude oil prices. Refineries in Tuapse have a production capacity of nearly 250,000 barrels per day.
And finally, farm broadcaster Mike Pearson looked into the cost left behind by a massive Texas wildfire that occurred earlier this year in today’s edition of Farm Progress America – click here to listen.
 CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 102,273 contracts.