Tropical Depression Raises Rust Spreading Chances

Spores could spread to eastern Mississippi, Alabama, Florida panhandle, western Georgia, eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina and Virginia. Compiled by staff

Published on: Jul 7, 2005

Tropical storm Cindy, now downgraded to a depression, is predicted by the soybean rust model to transport spores from existing source sites in southeastern U.S. into Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, southern West Virginia, and Virginia, with the greatest deposition occurring where the precipitation is heaviest, according to USDA's Public Soybean Rust Site.

Tropical depression Cindy is centered just inland on the Mississippi-Alabama border. The National Hurricane Center predicts this system to move northeastward into northeastern Georgia by Thursday and central Virginia by Friday. The forecasted track has heavy rain extending from eastern Mississippi, Alabama, Florida panhandle, western Georgia, eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, to Virginia. Lighter rain showers are expected east of an arc from extreme eastern Texas, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, to West Virginia. The same system will continue favorable weather conditions for disease development in the southeastern U.S.

Tropical storm Dennis developed into a hurricane late Wednesday and is expected to travel in a northwesterly track across western Cuba by midnight Saturday and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Dennis is forecasted to bring wind and rain into the eastern U.S. Gulf coast, initially along southwestern Florida and Keys by late Friday, and then into the Mississippi delta and Florida panhandle by Saturday. While model consensus has Dennis moving into the Gulf of Mexico, it is much too early to forecast the U.S. landfall point with any accuracy. Accordingly, it is also too early to predict the impact of this tropical system on soybean rust activity in the U.S.

With the prediction of new spore deposition and continued favorable weather for disease development in the southeastern U.S., mobile teams will be added next week to assist in the already intensive scouting effort. For the remainder of this week, the most vulnerable region for disease development continues to be below a line stretching from southern South Carolina through central Georgia, Alabama to southeastern Mississippi.