Trend-Line Yields: '12 Drought Could Be Better Than '88 Drought

Emerson Nafziger examines drought loss based on a percentage of expected trend-line yields. Viewed through that lens, 1988 was much worse than this year looks to be.

Published on: Aug 20, 2012
The 1988 yield represents a loss of 44% of expected yield, while in 2012, with higher yield expected, the percentage loss is only 33%. "In relative terms, the 2012 crop lost less yield than the 1988 crop, but in absolute terms, losses were almost identical for the two years," Nafziger says.

It is clear that drought continues to cause serious yield loss, even with today's faster-growing, higher-yielding hybrids.

"We don't yet know if hybrids that have been improved specifically for drought tolerance will be less affected by drought this year, but it's unlikely that any hybrid will produce high yields in areas and soils where most well-managed fields yield little or nothing," Nafziger says.

Nafziger advises producers to take note of any hybrids that do relatively – and consistently – better than other hybrids under dry conditions, but cautions against overreliance on data from this year. "As we don't know what next year will bring, we also need to include in our comparisons relative hybrid performance under better conditions, even if those come from last year or from 50 or 100 miles away," he adds.

"In other words, data from drought-affected comparisons predict best for drought conditions," he says. "Because we have no reason to expect drought in 2013, we can keep this year's results in the mix, but we should rely more on data from better-yielding trials to choose hybrids."