Report Shows World Export Decline Until 2013

New report highlights prospects for U.S. ag exports over next 10 years. Though grain prices will decrease from 2002-03 peaks, they're expected to remain high, given strong import demand on world markets, especially in China. Compiled by staff

Published on: Mar 5, 2004

A weak dollar, high prices and global economic growth bode well for U.S. agricultural exports, according to the 10-year projections of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), presented to Congress this week.

FAPRI, a policy research group with centers at Iowa State University and the University of Missouri at Columbia, prepares baseline projections each year for the U.S. agricultural sector and international commodity markets.

A moderate depreciation of the U.S. dollar keeps U.S. products cheaper in export markets relative to those of industrialized competitors. This competitive edge and 3% growth in the global economy, especially in Latin America, Asia and transitional economies, will likely push the value of agricultural exports up by 27% by 2013.

Grain and feed exports account for 25% of this increase. The value of animal and meat exports are expected to rise 42% over the 10-year period, provided that sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) problems are overcome quickly.

Export prospects stronger for folks South of the border

According to the report, export prospects are even stronger for Latin American competitors because of their successful control of SPS concerns, low production costs, and depreciation of their currencies against the U.S. dollar. Brazil and Argentina gain higher export market shares in grains and oilseed products and an increased presence in meat markets.

As a result, the U.S. share of world crop exports decreases through 2013. Though grain prices decrease from their 2002-03 peaks, they are expected to remain high, given strong import demand on world markets, especially in China. Wheat prices remain close to $140 per metric ton, and corn prices stay above $100 per metric ton throughout the 10-year period. The United States, Argentina and Hungary are among the countries that stand to benefit from these strong world market conditions.

The long-run outlook for U.S. corn and other feed grains, embodied in meat exports, is excellent following the resolution of SPS issues. Oilseed prices are expected to decrease significantly from their 2003 peaks but level off at around $250 per metric ton through 2013. The U.S. share of crop exports decreases over the projection period.

Ten new member countries will join EU in 2004

The European Union enlarges by 10 new members in 2004. Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy in 2005, including decoupling of subsidy payments, will decrease beef production in member countries, resulting in more E.U. beef imports throughout the period.

Identification of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada resulted in the closing of some of its export markets. BSE problems compromised U.S. beef exports in 2003-04. FAPRI expects U.S. beef exports to resume their long-term growth by 2005-06.

The multi-year FAPRI projections provide a starting point for evaluating and comparing scenarios involving macroeconomic, policy, weather and technology variables. These projections are intended for use by policymakers and others who do medium-range and long-term planning. Information is available at the Iowa State and University of Missouri FAPRI Web sites.