December 11, 2013
Upcoming agricultural reports to watch for: Thursday at 7:30 a.m. is the weekly export sales and Friday is the expiration of the December futures grain and soybean product contracts. Next Monday morning is the monthly NOPA crush report and the weekly export inspections.
ADM is planning on moving 1 million metric tons of corn and soybeans through its new grain terminal at the mouth of the Amazon in 2014.
Corn futures closed positive today and near the session highs as short covering continues to be the driving force to the higher trade. Corn continues to be impressive that the short covering has been able to hold higher trade and that selling by nervous traders over the China GMO situation has not came about.
This morning the USDA reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to an Unknown Destination for the 2013/14 marketing year.
The weekly U.S. ethanol production averaged 944,000 barrels per day last week, the previous week was 913,000. The weekly ethanol production was at 277.5 million gallons the largest weekly grind since January of 2012. The ethanol blending last week was lower at 826,000 barrel per day compared to the previous week of 837,000. This equals a blend rate of 9.9%. Ethanol stocks did increase to 15.4 million barrels from the previous week of 15.1 million barrels.
It sound like this morning that possibly four more corn cargoes have been or will be rejected by China due to the MIR162 GMO trait. So far the corn futures have done a good job of ignoring this negative news out of China for the past couple of weeks. If the latest short covering in the corn dries up will this allow the Chinese rejections to weigh on the corn futures?
Still talk circulating today that China will reject some U.S. DDG's due to the MIR162 issue, no confirmation yet.
The March corn futures had mixed trading today on an inside trading session and closed positive. Tuesday's high was the highest of the past 18 sessions. Resistance is at $4.40 ¾ the December high, then $4.41 the 50-day moving average, then $4.49 ½ the November high, then $4.50 psychological area, then $4.60 the 100-day moving average. Support is $4.25 area, then $4.18 ½ contract and December low and then the $4.10 area.
The entire soybean complex closed positive today after seeing mixed trading during the session. Late buying helped to bring the entire complex into positive territory today. Soybean and soybean meal are still enjoying bullish charts and good fund buying.
There has started to become a little change in the South America weather forecasts. Brazil is looking forward to normal to below normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation. The forecast for Argentina is the opposite of Brazil's expected weather for the next 10 days.
January soybean futures closed positive after an inside trading session today of mixed trading. Tuesday's high was the highest trade of the past 58 sessions. Resistance is at the $13.50 psychological area, then at $13.53 ½ December high then $13.74 to $13.78 ½ open chart gap in September, then $14.06 the 2013 high. Support starts at $13.25 area, then $13.11 ¼ the December low, then $13.00 psychological area, then $12.95 the 50 & 100-day moving averages.
Wheat futures at all three exchanges experienced today narrow trading sessions and mixed trade and closed mostly higher with a real lack of news to influence price direction. The good news today was there was not anymore fresh negative news for the wheat, but the market lacked any bottom picking type of buying also.
It's amazing the interest that has developed in concern over the price of wheat with the latest leg lower that the futures have taken. The past two days have brought about several phone calls as to how much lower can wheat drop. Personally I have been negative wheat even before the mid-October rally and also thought the wheat/corn spread got completely out of line. The biggest concern for corn in the short-term is if corn futures score new contract lows and push closer to $4.
Egypt today bought 300,000 metric tons of wheat in their latest wheat tender. The breakdown of the tender showed they purchased 180,000 metric tons from Romania and 120,000 metric tons from France. There was no U.S. wheat offered in the Egypt tender.
France Agrimer is looking for a 3.4% rise for the French soft wheat production for the 2013/14 marketing year. This would place the wheat production at 36.84 million metric tons an increase from last year's 35.62 million metric tons.
The KC March wheat futures today traded mostly negative and closed slightly positive on an inside trading session that held near the bottom of Tuesday's range. Resistance is at $7.00 area, then $7.20 the 100-day moving average, then $7.27 the 50-day moving average. Support is at $6.79 ¼ the contract and December low and then the $6.70 area.
Chicago March wheat today traded mostly negative and closed positive on an inside trading session that held near the bottom of Tuesday's range. Resistance starts at $6.50 area, then $6.72 the 100-day moving average, then $6.76 the 50-day moving average. Support is at $6.35 the contract and December low and then the $6.25 area.
The Minneapolis March wheat today equaled its contract low as it traded mixed in a narrow trading range and closed slightly higher. Resistance is at $6.85 area, then $7.11 ½ the December high, then $7.28 the 50-day moving average. Support begins at $6.66 ¼ the contract and December low, then $6.63 on the weekly chart, then $6.50 area.
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