April 16, 2014
Morning Price Trends
Corn: Down 1 to 1 1/2
Soybeans: Up 8 1/4 to 20
Note: Farm Futures Senior Editor Bob Burdorfer will be filling in for Bryce Knorr this week.
Soybeans surged to a new nine-month high early on Wednesday following better-than-expected economic growth in China, the world's largest buyer of soybeans, and ongoing support from a large monthly crush.
Corn was slightly lower pressured by ideas Midwest corn planting will accelerate as forecasts call for clear weather.
Winter wheat markets were mixed, with Chicago soft red winter wheat trading both sides of unchanged at times, as traders downplayed frost damage to the crop in the central and southern Plains.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to be watched as Ukraine began its crackdown on pro-Russian separatists
Soybeans were higher overnight for a third day, with May the highest for a lead month since July of last year, after China reported 7.4% GDP growth in the first quarter, which topped the forecasts for 7.3%. That news lifted global stock markets and pushed Malaysian palm oil up 1.6%.
European rapeseed also was higher.
The GDP growth also overshadowed recent worries that credit issues there would cause Chinese buyers to default on soybean purchases and that high soybean prices would prompt U.S. users to import South American soybeans. Last week, reports said Chinese buyers would default on up to 500,000 tonnes of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans.
Soybeans were trending higher ahead of the China news in reaction to a larger-than-expected U.S. soybean crush in March. The National Oilseed Processors Association on Tuesday reported the monthly crush at 153.84 million bushels.
What to look for – Advances in Argentina and Brazil soy harvests as forecasts call for clear weather into next week.
Corn prices were slightly lower as forecasts call for warmer weather in the Midwest next, which should facilitate spring planting.
Corn planting is off to a slow start, with only 3% percent done as of Sunday, but it should gather speed with the onset of warmer weather. At mid-April there is plenty of time to get the crop planted on time, particularly with modern machines that can sow hundreds of acres in a day.
Forecasts call for intermittent showers, but warm weather next week in the Midwest, said Commodity Weather Group.
What to look for – The 6- to 10-day forecast calls for above to much-above temperatures in the Midwest, which should warm fields enough to allow planting..
Winter wheat was trading both sides of unchanged as tensions in the Ukraine supported the market, while forecasts for beneficial rain in much of the central and southern Plains applied pressure.
The frost that hit that area on Monday and Tuesday was not expected to significantly hurt the crop. Wheat can recover from frost this early in the growing season, but it may take time to assess the impact on yields.
The wheat already is in poor condition after a dry winter and early spring. Late on Monday, USDA rated winter wheat 34% good to excellent, 34% fair, 20% poor and 12% very poor. More than half of Texas and Oklahoma wheat was rated poor to very poor.
Forecasts call for beneficial showers of ¼ to ¾ inch across much of the central and southern Plains.
What to Look For – Rain. The winter wheat crop in the central and southern Plains needs rain and traders will watching to see if the forecasted rain occurs.
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