April 17, 2014
Morning Price Trends
Corn: Up 1/2 to 1
Soybeans: Up 4 1/2 to 6
Wheat: Up 3 to 4
Note: Farm Futures Senior Editor Bob Burdorfer will be filling in for Bryce Knorr this week.
Morning Market Review will not publish April 18 as the markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. We will return on Monday, April 21.
Soybean futures were higher overnight to start their fourth straight day of gains as bullish reactions to this week's larger-than-expected domestic crush offset a Reuters report that Chinese buyers may default on an additional 1.2 million tonnes of soybean purchases.
Corn was higher in light trading and wheat turned higher after falling on Wednesday.
Disappointing earnings from Google and IBM put early pressure on stock futures, which could spill into commodities.
Spring planting will keep traders attention this week and in the weeks ahead. Corn was 3% planted as of Sunday, but that should increase as forecasts call for warm, dry weather in much of the Midwest through next week. Soybean planting had yet to begin in earnest, but should soon.
Winter wheat markets were higher to recover a portion of what they lost on Wednesday. Frost in winter wheat areas on the Plains on Monday and Tuesday sent wheat sharply higher.
Soybeans higher overnight, with May the highest for a lead month since July of last year. The larger-than-expected crush followed by China on Wednesday reporting better-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth of 7.4% GDP pushed markets higher.
Profit taking guided Malaysian palm oil lower on Thursday following recent strong gains, while European rapeseed was higher.
Soybeans advanced despite general manager of China's Shandong Sunrise Group telling Reuters that Chinese buyers may default on a further 1.2 million tonnes of U.S. and South American soybeans to avoid losses in local markets. Last week, reports surfaced that Chinese buyers would default on up to 500,000 tonnes of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans.
What to look for – Advances in Argentina and Brazil soy harvests, weekly U.S. exports. Old-crop exports could be down as demand shifts to South America.
Corn prices inch higher ahead of the weekly exports, which traders expect to be on par with the previous week's pace.
Corn planting should increase as forecasts call for warm, dry weather in much of the Midwest through next week. Northern areas, such as Minnesota and northern Iowa may have showers, but elsewhere should be dry, according to Commodity Weather Group.
USDA reported 3% of the corn was planted as of Sunday.
What to look for – The 6- to 10-day forecast calls for above normal temperatures in the Midwest, which should warm fields enough to allow planting.
Winter wheat is trading higher as the markets recovered from Wednesday's sharp tumble.
Winter wheat in the Plains continues to struggle amid dry conditions. The frost that hit the area on Monday and Tuesday was not expected to significantly hurt the crop, but that event did push wheat futures higher those two days.
Wheat can recover from frost this early in the growing season, but it may take time to assess the impact on yields.
Forecasts call for light showers Thursday morning in the Plains with better chances for rain there this weekend.
What to Look For – Rain. The winter wheat crop in the central and southern Plains needs rain and traders will be watching to see if the forecasted rain occurs. Weekly exports due later Thursday morning are expected to be up from a week ago.
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This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.