Morning Market Review by Bryce Knorr

Rain, fear of Russian export return challenge wheat. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time)

Published on: Apr 17, 2015

April 17, 2015

Morning Price Trends
Corn: Down 1
Soybeans: Steady to up 1
Wheat: Mixed

Grain futures are mixed this morning, in a mostly quiet overnight trade, despite more volatility in outside markets and a lot of weather news.

Corn prices are a little lower, after trading in very narrow ranges for most of the overnight session. Large old crop stocks continue to weigh on prices, but a wet start to the season has raised a few concerns about planting delays. Much of growing region received only light rain this week, though that could be about to change.

Storms continuing across the central Plains this morning should move slowly east over the weekend, bringing three-quarters of an inch to much of the Corn Belt, according to the latest predictions for the next week. A few areas, including most of North Dakota and Wisconsin, and northern Illinois, should receive lesser amounts, part of a drying trend spread across the upper Midwest in 6- to 10-day and 8- to 14-day outlooks out yesterday.

Export Sales out Thursday totaled 24.3 million bushels, above trade guesses, but shipments remain below the rate needed weekly to reach USDA's forecast for the marketing year.

The preliminary report from the CBOT showed daily futures volume down 53% on Thursday to 251,216 as a drop of almost 60% in May-July spread trade thinned activity. Open interest was up 4,718 on flat trade from funds. Options volume was off 12% at 56,691 and 63% of the trades were for puts as traders liquidated puts and opened new calls.

Overseas prices today were mixed today. September futures on the Dalian exchange in China rose 8.6 cents to $10.314 while June corn in Paris morning trade was off 4.1 cents to $4.462, after conversions to bushels and adjustments for currency valuations.

Bottom line: The market's focus is trying to turn to weather, and as long as much of the Midwest stays wet, prices won't fall apart. But large old crop carryout won't go away, and farmers are ready to plant enough acres to meet demand with only average yields, keeping stocks burdensome and prices low. For more, see my Weekly Corn Review. For specific recommendations and daily charts, subscribe to our free E-newsletter, Farm Futures Daily.

Comments:
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  1. j. leach says:

    got to love them soybean they yield when their roots are drowning and they yield when it so dry that the reservoirs are low in brazil to 5 to15%. water being rationed to the point of cut off. electric being imported from argentina. must be the topical humidity

  2. kurt says:

    I see Kraft is being sued by the CFTC for manipulating the wheat market. So all the BS we hear every day why the markets up or down means nothing because of stuff like this. Maybe Bryce or someone out there could give us farmers some good advice on how we farmers should market our grain when we have thieves like Kraft manipulating our markets. Kraft was complaining a few years ago when prices were high saying how it was hurting the consumer while Kraft was still making record profits. I hope these a-holes are prosecuted to the fullest extent.

    • Bryce says:

      Class action lawsuits have already begun, no doubt.

  3. j. leach says:

    soybeans: exports ending 3-19-2015 hit 1,777,820,272bu. 11,200,000bu. short of gov. goal. being as the report I get is a week behind I would say that the goal has been surpassed. soybean meal exports hit a equivalent of 426,876,326 bu. domestic use wood be interesting with hogs numbers up along with poultry, if we could get the truth. I say the big use in the 1st quarter of the marketing year was to cover all the shortage that were not being reported.

  4. kurt says:

    A lot less corn acres getting planted in our area. Crop ins agent said his portfolio is going from 60% corn acres last year to 45% this year. I've heard a lot of guys still trying to get operating loans & if the farmer wants to plant corn the lenders are making them buy the cheaper brands non gmo. Not surprised though why plant expensive corn when you can buy it for less than the cost of production?

  5. j. leach says:

    soybean meal: soybean meal sales and shipments are up about 18% equivilant of about of 403,093,878bu making over half the soybeans being sold or shipped. total of 2,148,344,878bu.

  6. j. leach says:

    soybean: exports and sales total 1,746,251,000bu. march 4 fas report. gov. predictions 1,790,000,000bu. at the rate were going that could be passéd in 3wks. but I don't look for any price increase. (a) wall street doesn't want that.(b) usda will probably revise the yield upward cause they won't want to lower the carryover..

  7. j. leach says:

    sorghum: production 433,000,000bu. raised 301,8886444bu. sold for export, I don't know if commitments can be met because I know 3 ethanol plants that use sorghum and two pork producers that use a lot of sorghum.

  8. M. Bell says:

    Corn in china is over $10.00 a bushel and we're getting $4.00+ or - who is getting the difference

    • Bryce says:

      Nobody. The Chinese government keeps grain prices high to support local farmers. Processors import when they can, but are limited because the government doesn't want to lose money on its inventory. Sorghum growers and Ukraine are benefiting this year, but totals are small.

      • SE Farmer says:

        So Bryce can chinese investors buy corn here and sell there for 250%?

  9. j. leach says:

    1,727,938,071bu. of soybeans sold or delivered as of 2-19-15. 239,964,813bu to be delivered. china and unknown having 131,817,649bu. to take.

  10. kurt says:

    Soybeans can rally based on some trucker's strike in Brazil? I thought we had plenty of beans in the world yet the minute there's a little hiccup somewhere up in price we go? Makes one wonder how many beans there really is. If a truckers strike can make beans rally almost .30 cents at one time in one day wait until we have a real weather scare.

    • SE Farmer says:

      kurt, I thought the same myself. I guess paper farmers like these .20-.30 swings every other day. The market goes up one day, then next day markets down on profit taking. It's like Jim shows 2 billion bu of beans sold, delivered or waiting to be delivered. Unfortunately by the time the truth comes out about carry over the damage has already been felt by the farmer.

  11. j. leach says:

    of the undelivered 148,036,790bu. these figures are all sourced by fas it cut me off and wouldn't let me finish so you will have to refer down to finish the blog

  12. j. leach says:

    the port of maruipol is under a seige on the outskirts. with the tactics the reds have always used and the stupid pullback negotiations I wouldn't be surprised to see the whole country fall. on soybeans cancellations there seems to be some weekly, even when we had the big one ( I think 595,000 tons we ended positive for the week 41,000 tons. so this card of cancellations is a on going thing that I have got accustom to and don't worry about one day the Chinese cancel the next day they buy. as of the 2-12 2015 we had 1,716,082,660bu. commited or delivered mostly delelivered with the Chinese and unknown holding over half of the

  13. j. leach says:

    I would think that the fight over the rail yard in Ukraine would be slowing exports up there. that would be bullish and wall street wouldn't want that.

    • Bryce says:

      The rail hub in question is important because it links \the two main cities the rebels control in eastern Ukraine . No connection to rail lines serving big ports where most grain is exported from.

    • Bryce says:

      Fighting is in eastern Ukraine. Most of the grain is shipped from ports in the west on the Black Sea. Some may be affected through the Sea of Azov, third largest of Ukraine's ports.Still plenty of corn around, though. USDA is still likely too low on soybeans exports, but remember the 1.697 bil is commitments. Some sales are always cancelled or rolled forward, 62 mil bu on average.

  14. j. leach says:

    it only take about 272,000 mt. to reach 1,790,000,000 bu. so I think the gov. figure is to low. I think 1,960,000,000bu is good goal, don't know if its attainable, but people laughed at 2,000,000,000 bu. corn last year but we got to over 1,900,000,000bu.

  15. j. leach says:

    fas showing exports of soybeans@1,693,512,275 bu. other people are saying 1.75 to 1.79. where are they getting their figures from Bryce?

    • Bryce says:

      1.79 bil bu is where USDA is at for entire marketing year as of Tuesday's WASDE report.

    • Bryce says:

      Don't know where any of those numbers are coming from. I have total shipments and outstanding sales at 1.697 billion bu. as of today's weekly summary.

  16. Bryce says:

    That's why we do our surveys. We think the experts are our readers.

  17. kurt says:

    USDA lowers yield to 171? I thought BIG crops got bigger? That's what the so called experts said. They've been wrong 2 years in a row now. USDA also made NO changes to harvested acres even though planted acres decreased by 300,000 acres?? It wasn't changed in the harvested category. That's only 51,300,000 bushels less corn than what they said. With figuring like that no wonder everyone questions the USDA.

  18. j. leach says:

    last marketing years sales of soybeans was 1,684,627,134bu., so far this marketing year as of this morning 1-9-2015 sales are 1,601,155,213bu. according to fas. demand is good and wall street seems to be under selling are natural resources. what I don't understand is the difference between fas weekly export number and gipsa. gipsa seem to be bearish and cost farmers money.

  19. SE Farmer says:

    Not sure why we are supposed to agree to let you sell our information to third parties. Seems to me that you people are about to mess up a good thing. After I log out I will be removing my information. Why can't this site just be about helping farmers?

  20. j. leach says:

    in my blog it should of referred to soybeans 0n12-2- 2014

  21. j. leach says:

    sales for week ending nov 20 were 54,469,618bu. weekly exports were101,982,937bu.

  22. kurt says:

    Crude oil trading below $70/barrel down over $7 on 11/28 but still paying $3.85-$4.25/gal @ the pump? Wonder if there's any price manipulation going on? Looks like it doesn't matter what the price/barrel is the oil company's manipulate the price @ the pump anyway.

  23. j. leach says:

    the government reported exports of soybeans last year of 1,631,000,000bu. but American soybean assoc. reports over 2,000,000,000bu. that's a pretty big difference. there was 35,250, 871bu. carryover of export sales. on the corn side keep hearing big exports from Ukraine but there exports are down 22%. the total production from Ukraine, Russia Kazakhstan is 1,500,000,000bu. with all the embargos against Russia there probably going to eat a lot of corn bread. I heard Romania was a big corn exporter, total production 363,432,500bu. I think 4 good counties in iowa could raise that much. with this early cold snap consumption will be up.but the real point here should be that wall street has decided to keep grain prices low regardless of supply.

  24. Bryce says:

    Yes, record soybean shipments and sales are clogging the pipeline. Corn shipments are always more spread out during the marketing year, but more so this year. Business should pick up in the 2nd quarter, but there's still plenty of cheaper corn and feed wheat on the world market. As for soybeans, carryout may eventually drop to 400 mil bu, maybe less. That's still a lot. If you stored beans you made some money. That may not be the case if you store into 2015.

  25. SE Farmer says:

    Can the lack of actual corn exports be attributed to the 1/4 of a billion bu of beans that have been exported in the last 3 weeks Bryce? 80% of USDA's export forecast has been shipped in first two months. Headlines say corn exports are disappointing and below trade guesses. What type capacity do we have to export in a week? Seems to me that China sees it for what it's worth and is buying every bean they can get their hands on. I wish I could gamble with folks livelihood.

  26. SE Farmer says:

    Maybe just maybe China will buy enough beans this cheap so they can resell them to us at $13. Didn't they resell us beans from SA last year? I do believe those that store beans will be able to make some money.

  27. j. leach says:

    either way you look at it, half full or half empty. farmers are getting shorted. report out of Illinois show we had used 16% of the 2014-2015 crop year supply (corn and soybeans) was used in 6 weeks. shows how short everything was august 31, and yet are getting ground into the ground. the soybean market is so hot from harvest to February we don't have time or reason for harvest slump. the world is consuming our beans in that period and south Americas from march to august. we have sold for export 1,201,804,245 bu. of soybeans as of 10-16-2014 for the marketing year. if all sale are accounted for.

  28. j. leach says:

    the rains are not coming in mato grosso brazil planting is way behind. one report says argentine farmers have sold only 10% of there beans another says 40%. one says some of the ground has not been rented for this coming crop year. this all sounds bullish to me.

    • SE Farmer says:

      I wonder why every comment on FF these days turns every bit of possible bullish news into bearish news? Parts of Brazil are drier, but rain is on the way. Parts of Brazil are wetter, but drier forecast should speed planting at record pace. Two days after 2-4" rain across mid west, skies part and combines make record headway across fields. Rain expected across corn belt for next 3 days, but extended forecast shows a drier trend for next 4 weeks. Am I the only one that notices this. Jim and kurt, and handful of others are the only ones that think the glass is half empty instead of saying the glass is half empty, however we have a record number of half empty glasses.

  29. j. leach says:

    the Chinese tv channel says china is predicting another 7.5% growth economically.

  30. M. Bell says:

    Soybeans in china 19.75 a bushel. Why are we 10.00 under

  31. sand plain farmer says:

    Crops are looking vulnerable to lodging from wet snow. Another early winter?

  32. j. leach says:

    we need to store 10% of the crop away from the market. this 10% is costing us 40% of the price.

  33. j. leach says:

    how long are farmers going to let this legal theivery go on?

  34. kurt says:

    I saw today on a news channel that a high frequency trader was indicted for manipulating commodities futures markets in 1st Fed prosecution for "spoofing". Supposedly "spoofing" is someone issuing large trade orders with intent to cancel those orders after they have moved the market in the direction your trying to move it. Sure is nice to know that that they've turned farmers livelihoods into a casino so someone can make a quick buck off the product we produce.

  35. j. leach says:

    with the new information on soybean carryover and 2013 crop yield. I would say imports of soybeans probably was 140,000,000 bu. or more. I would say the total needed in 2013 was3,454,000,000 bu. or more. with a demand of 3,600,000,000bu. or more according to some predictions we will raise enough for a 32 week supply.

  36. j. leach says:

    this morning a guy on agri- business said that with over a billion bu. of soybeans sold for export and the amount of soybean meal sold for export, expected domestic use we will be going through 110-120,000,000bu. of soybeans a week. at that rate with a 3.800,000,000bu. will last 32 weeks.people that store beans will have a chance to make some money.

  37. kurt says:

    If the stock market weighed on the grains yesterday (9/25) then why were the grains down today? The stock market was quite a bit higher so I thought for sure the grain would have been up today according to FF. The stock market being down yesterday had nothing to with the grains being down. The real reason the grains go up or down is because of the funds. They control/manipulate our markets.

  38. kurt says:

    Farm Futures closing comment on 9/25 was the dollar, stock market weighed on the grains. Really. The grains have been in a down trend for a long time now while the stock market has been making new highs, but today because the stock market was down that weighed on the grains? While the dollar has been going up grain prices have fallen so much that other countries can still buy our grains DIRT cheap. I see the exports on beans this morning were 93 million but yet beans still go down? If the dollar is hurting our exports so much, maybe somebody @ Farm Futures should find out who's causing the dollar to go up & tell them their hurting our exports. I thought Farm Futures was better than this. Using the dollar and the stock market for an excuse because the grains were down. How absurd.

    • SE Farmer says:

      Instead of farm futures it should be investment futures ,Charles schwaab or anything furthest from benefitting the farmer!

  39. j. leach says:

    another hole in the government grain estimates stories. Canadian government threatening to fine the Canadian pacific railroad for not hauling enough grain. the railroad says they can't find enough grain to haul the minimum required.

  40. j. leach says:

    my point would be if it wasn't for imports how many of the 130 million bu. of soybeans would be there. to get a true number of how many soybeans were imported we probably not know for a year.

  41. kurt says:

    To Jim's point, anybody notice the usda lowered the bean ending stocks down to 130 mb in the last report? Probably not because the usda knew everybody would be focused on the yield increase therefore it was a good time for them to slip it in under the radar without hardly anybody noticing it. Market corruption, control, manipulation whatever you want to call it at it's best.

  42. j. leach says:

    dtn reported sale of soybeans to china of 4.8 million tons of soybeans ,but the government has only reported 2,016,000 bu. yet. are they trying to control market effect. this shows that the government is controlling price.

  43. j. leach says:

    the big soybean deal yesterday average $13.07 a bu. . a lot of middle man profit. that's also whats wrong with wheat to many charges after it leaves the farm.

  44. So MN says:

    -South Central MN- Seed reps are estimating a 5 to 15 bu/acre loss in corn and a 3 to 5 bu/acre loss in soybeans from frost damage.

  45. kurt says:

    If there was no frost damage why did i have to use a scraper to get the frost off my windshield then? Why are my beans that were a nice green color turning black? Corn that was green 3 days ago looks like it would be ready to harvest in a week? Apparently nobody at farm futures has a clue of whats going on or just like the markets their just ignoring it.

  46. minn-iowa border says:

    No frost damage? Where did they check? Texas? From From Spirit Lake Iowa to Fairmont MN There is bad frost damage, brown beans white corn, nothing was mature. Had a neighbor drive back from Chicago to Southern MN on monday, he seen frost damage most of the way. Also heard it's pretty ugly from Souix Falls SD to Fairmont MN. Local canning company is not going to pick most of the sweet corn because it all got killed by the frost.

  47. j. leach says:

    soybean sales for export are really close to 1,000,000,000 bu. already. I wonder what the people who counted there soybeans before the leaf yellowing began are thinking with frost clear down to northwest iowa taking 10 bu. per acre off . there were a lot of soybeans planted in North Dakota. reports of wheat sprouting in the head. corn froze in co. weld county. you can see it doesn't matter supply and be damned. I trust fsa acres more than nass because they represent a lot of certified acres

  48. j. leach says:

    soybean export sales are 74,425,423 bu. higher for the 2014-15 crop year than same time the year before. lousiana early harvest is saving the trade and processors again. we need to know domestic usage of tis crop in august. its just supply and be damned.

  49. B Choquette says:

    Sept 5, 2014- bet the markets reverses 2-5 cents lower to new record lows on farmer selling. There are lines at the elevators prior to harvest as farmers race to dump the last of 2013's corn crop (in an effort to make room for 2014's bumper crop). "More crop is marketed at the low, then at the top." I'm considering MBE+ corn contracts for 2015 corn crop.

  50. SE Farmer says:

    Maybe corn and bean prices will drop low enough that we can just pay elevators to take it. Hope people like depending on importing your food. A lot of smaller farmers will go out because of this. $4/bushel for wheat, $3/bushel for corn and $7/bushel for soybeans doesn't pay the bills. Older farmers around here are saying it's a good time to give it up. It is a complete and horrific idea that it takes natural disasters for farmer to be able to make money, but on the flip side they are penalized for growing a good crop. Absolutely ridiculous!!!!!!!!!!!

    • farmer joe says:

      Hard frost in nc south dakota last night, some corn barely dented, beans could have used a few more good weeks, and heard there was wheat sprouting in the head a little way north of here. Awesome crops.

  51. Dakota Rose says:

    Rain hampering harvest in western ND. Hail storm last night. Crops definitely affected. Monday traveled I94 from Bismarck west to Belfield and south to Rapid City. Much ripe crop not harvested, water in fields, no combining seen. But, hope springs eternal for the farmer!

  52. SE Farmer says:

    Two days ago the 7 day coverage map showed our area is going to receive 1/4". Today the 5 day coverage map shows we are going to get 2" +. Pastures around here are completely brown. My pods are flat, no beans and are dropping leaves. Every week it show are area having above normal precipitation but we have only gotten 2.7" since April and 2" came in 1 rain in April. I saw the other day showing supposed actual rainfall totals. I was pleased to see that I gotten almost 2.5" rain for the week. Only I guess it evaporated before it hit the ground.

  53. j. leach says:

    its down to the next to last week of the marketing year for soybeans and corn. soybean 1,629,669,805. bu. with 58,173,288bu. left to deliver, total 1,687,843,093 bu. sure would like to have a total of domestic use and imports corrected for duplication. corn: 1,801,253,979bu delivered, 110,448,119 left to deliver less 730,794bu to china making a total for the year of 1,910,971,303bu. quite a ways from 1,750,000,000bu. all we hear about is big crop not big exports. also another rule we need to change is unknown destination when a country is refusing shipment for some reason, so we know how much is in jeopardy. ;

  54. hossier1970 says:

    good evening from the hoosier state! I'm new to this site and forum and hope I can bring something to the discussion. I'll put a question out here 'cause I'm curious about something I read the other day. apparently corn farmers in North Dakota are sitting on huge backlogs because of trouble with Burlington Northern Santa Fe and Canadian Pacific rail cars - all the rail traffic is being diverted to everything coming out of the Bakken oil fields and so storage bins are filling up. Now they're looking at cancelled orders from cereal makers, depressed prices from local oversupply etc. has any of this helped or hurt sales for farmers in neighboring states? I know that Indiana sells most of its corn for grain and I'm just curious to hear if this is having any spillover effect......any comments/info. would be appreciated!!

  55. j. leach says:

    soybeans at des moines ia processors are bidding $13.04. trying to find beans. theres talk they will shut down till new crop arrives because the beans are gone. now do you think 3.8 billion bu. will be to many if actual beans are counted . with imports coming in and 68,000,000bu left to export. Bryce do they raise soybeans in Manitoba and sask. their production has been cut 26%.

  56. j. leach says:

    Bryce: how does grain that is contracted for this year and not shipped this year get accounted for or does it? or does it magically get shipped and not accounted for so they can say there is more when it not really in stock? ;

    • Bryce says:

      These sales are rolled over from old crop to new at the start of the new crop marketing year. In soybeans, for example, around 60 million bushels on average are rolled. That's why we never ship everything that's sold. Sales to date total 1.697 billion, 57 million more than USDA forecasts for the entire MY.

  57. SE Farmer says:

    Not that it really matters much but my area on these coverage maps have been showing 2-3" every week they come out for the past 6 weeks. My six week total to date .5" total between two rains. Am I the only one that has this problem. My beans are wilted before daylight.

    • S. Nebraska says:

      The last rain to measure here in south central Nebraska was July 13. Dryland crops are starting to fire. I don't think it is a garden everywhere . No subsoil moisture here.

  58. JD Farmer says:

    I agree 100% with Jim's comment on 7/22. The only problem is when your used to lying and manipulating the numbers all the time its a hard habit to break.

  59. jim leach of farmer says:

    with the shuffling of numbers we seem to have come up with 300,000 metric ton of soybeans for 2013/2014 export since july 10 now these were sold to china. I believe this strengthens my belief that south America is out of beans. the chinese president has been down there for 10 days sucking up to south America leaders and if there were any left he would have got them. now weather they are really available remains to be seen. or will they some way shipped out of 2014/15 crop. I doubt if we will ever know. with all the juggling of figures we need some knew rules. one is that final production figures in January are final. wadse report eliminated all it is, is price control report manipulating supply to control price. quarterly stocks reports are enough. feb. yield predictions should be a 5 yr average plus 1bu. for trend line.

  60. jim leach of farmer says:

    with a big crop of corn coming on I can see a shortage of rail cars coming. I saw a rail car called a strap car it was engineered so both doors of a container could open up if the container was placed on it right. by using this all elevator could use the containers saving handling the grain at least twice and the elevator would not have to have equipment to move the container. on the other end it could be delivered to the end user. also the elevator could have the corn tested for objectionable traits before loading. just my thoughts.

  61. JD Farmer says:

    After certifying the other day the person helping me said the pp acres in our area are way more than she even thought. Then met with my crop ins agent and he alone had 40,000+ pp acres just with his clients in our small area.Takes a lot of corn and beans to make up for a zero. Corn in our area looks fair to ugly and beans are way behind and short. Frost better hold off until November. Got down to 35 the other morning in northern MN and it's July???????

  62. jim leach of farmer says:

    its pretty sad when they sell soybeans so cheap that anybody would take advantage of the price. you can't blame them when we are so stupid to let this happen. 1,832,000 metric tons since the 10th of july, that's 67,179,440bu.

    • SE Farmer says:

      China will buy all they can cheap and do exactly what they did this year, sell us SA beans back.

  63. jim leach of farmer says:

    while joe's down at fsa getting his aid for his cattle,i'll get on with anaylizing the soybean give away. 1,755,000,000bu for domestic use and 1,672,515,000 bu sold for export making 3,427,515,000bu almost 200,000,000bu. more than raised last year plus now 140,000,000bu. carryover pretty good trick if it was true. this would make this years crop just 372,485,000bu. long without any allowance for increase in hog numbers which will come with hog prices being what they are. if anybody thinks soybeans in iowa are going to yield what they say, they better go look at all the water damage. beans ought to have the same damage percentage as corn. if beans are worth $19.00 in china and the Chinese back for more soybeans for2013/14 delivery, confirms my saying brazil out of soybeans. if farmers had the guts they would build bins,seal soybeans down at fsa and hold for $15.00. abu.

  64. JD Farmer says:

    Maybe Joe could explain what he means about getting another insurance check. Do you Joe have insurance on your cattle? How about you house, your vehicle or your ranch? If I get an insurance check it's because I bought insurance on something and had a claim. I still had to pay the premium. You must not be doing to bad if you want to expand your operation. Talk about crying a river who was it again Joe who went to the EPA crying about changing the amount of corn used for ethanol when we had the drought in 2012? Now were looking at close to a 2 billion bu carryover. With corn coming way down in price why are food prices going up?

  65. kurt says:

    To the SE Farmer comment, the reason it doesn't add up is because the usda manipulates the numbers to keep the checkbook balanced. They tell us one thing but on report day tell us something totally different. The tighter the supply gets the more they have to lie and manipulate numbers. It's a pattern with this whole administration. Scandal after scandal and one lie upon another. Farmer's should be the richest people on earth for what we provide.

  66. sand plain farmer says:

    Reuters says that China planted record large corn acres and record small bean acreage. I have also read that they are discouraged by the poor quality of corn coming out of their storage.They may be heading for a more market-based plan.

  67. SE Farmer says:

    Bryce how can USDA tell us that bean crop was bigger last year but we have record imports? Something doesn't add up. Its also amazing how prices tumbled last year because the USDA came out with this 2 billion carryout and end up with 1.1 billion. What would prices have done if they had actually told the truth and estimated a 1.2 billion carryout instead of starting at RECORDS? Farmers aren't asking for $8 corn but we sure don't deserve $3 corn either. And Joe will see how you feel when cattle numbers catch up and your looking at $.70/lb beef prices instead of $2.00/lb. I'm sure you are pretty content to sell tractor trailer loads of calves for more than the same price for your neighbors truck. I just hope that every farmer whether they grow row crops, raise cows, chickens, pigs whatever gets paid what they deserve. No other industry earns it more than we do. I would love to have record income across the board for all walks of farmers.

  68. Joe says:

    wow as a cattle rancher it's hard for me to read these - farmers have enjoyed record income, bid up land prices, paid to get land out of crp, etc. etc. and now you want to bitch - cry me a river. I've watched my neighbor farmers load up four sleds and head to the mountains for two weeks pulled by their $70,000 trucks. You guys are amazing. I can't compete with you for land to grow my operation and now you want to bitch - get another insurance check!

    • Jed says:

      Geez Joe, could you be any more jealous?

      • joe says:

        not jealous at all just amazed at the instant complaining when ag prices go south

  69. jim leach of farmer says:

    china just bought 12,724,490 bu. of soybeans. so much for that big crop in south America, they probably have figured out how much we've lost to flood and decided to purchase before prices went up. all these so so reports to make beans cheap are making farmers dam disgusted because they don't believe them but the board just keeps swallowing them up like there real, usda even admitted the last one was wrong before it came out.

    • brad Choquette says:

      OI bet beans bottom around $8.

    • SE Farmer says:

      Jim, the usda wants to start at the top with yield and acreage to get the price down so China can buy cheaper. Every year its record everything, SA planting, production, yield. Instead of using ave yield and adjusting from there, they start at the top to drive prices lower. Us as farmers have to play the waiting game to let prices move back up so we can stay afloat. Basis around here for old crop beans is $2.00. I wonder why that is?

  70. jim leach of farmer says:

    china can tell us how many acres they lost to flood, Canada can tell us they will loose 1,000,000 acres in Manitoba, Arkansas says they lost 75,000 acres to flood, yet the usda can't tell us how much is lost to date.

  71. SE Farmer says:

    I wonder what the USDA would do if we as farmers binned up everything possible from this year, sell only to make payments or borrow money on stored grain to operate. Plant a good cover crop or plant hay for these poor cattleman on our ground and only plant around 30 million acres of corn. I do believe we would have a shortage again and prices would shoot back up to $10/ bushel. I would love to see the deception reports when they saw no corn in the fields. We can sell at harvest for for $3.50 or bin it up and hold on. Us as farmers have to get our act together, because we keep striving for the 300 bu average and planting 80-90 million acres year after year. What does the fuel industry do when prices drop? The mysteriously shut down refineries for maintenance and the price goes back up. The country survives with $4.00 gas just like they survived with $8.00 corn. Prices went up, but you don't see them coming down. I'm selling wheat right now for $4.50/ bu for 59.5 test wt and probably gonna sell corn for under $4. So who wins or should I say who survives?

  72. jim leach of farmer says:

    the cattlemen are the biggest hypocrites there are. they complain about ethanol use while they are the first to line for ddgs . the hogs farmers complained along with chicken man cause they wouldn't price their product at a profit and let grain farmer survive after the drought they had endured. the grocery man complained while he knew he wouldn't lower his prices when grain prices went back down. the gov. ought to let the cattlemen graze and hay crp to get cattle numbers back up. cattle numbers are lowest since 50's while the population is way up. lbs. per calf is not making up the difference?

  73. JD Farmer says:

    Since the cattleman's association and the grocer's association want to whine and complain when corn prices are high and blame it on ethanol and the EPA should do something about the RFS, what should be done that cattle are at record prices and hurting the consumer at the grocery store? I don't see the ethanol coalition going after these organizations. If I remember right they wanted the EPA to adjust the amount of ethanol used if corn supply's got tight. So since we have an big surplus of corn we should be able to blend even higher amounts of ethanol right? Everything that uses corn like cereal should be coming way down in price yet there not? Maybe someone from the cattleman's and grocers association could explain this. Sounds like a bunch of hypocrites.

  74. jim leach of farmer says:

    lets look at this 405,000,000bu. bean stocks june 1. 125,000,000bu carryover. exports of 77,333,000bu left to ship, leaving 202,667,000bu for domestic use,15,589,769bu per wk. for domestic use not much. the government says 30,000,000 bu won't be shipped is that cause they are not there or farmers won't give them up?

    • jim leach of farmer says:

      there is also 956,100 tons of soybean meal to export between now and sept 1 lowering soybeans from june 1 to 158,380,448bu for domestic use 12,183,111bu per wk. addition or correction

  75. JD Farmer says:

    Another BS report from the USDA. Mysteriously finding more corn and beans. They supposedly underestimated last years bean yield. That's odd because we were told what the final yield was back in January. The scandals in Washington just keep coming. Since the USDA is so good at finding things maybe they could be hired to find the missing emails from the IRS.

  76. james leach of farmer says:

    corn plantings in north dakota are down, plantigs, eastern Colorado plantings are down,a lot not planted. 336, 000 acres reduction in planting in Canada. again hail damage from neleigh ne. to at least Villisca iowa. freeze damage in texas till it had to be replanted to sorghum or cotton, now all the flooding corn , beans, wheat. prices will probably remain low because that's what the powers to be want.

  77. james leach of biogreenaz@aol.com says:

    soybean exports in brazil are expected to reach 43,000,000 metric tons. domestic use 40,000,000 metric ton. along with whats lost along the road doen't leave much carryover. now la. the first crop had to be replanted because too dry the second crop had flood damage which carried over to miss. causing this to be late.distrubing sugar plantings, second crop will be late due to wheat harvest being late. but more important is the first crop being late and surely a reduced yield will mean there won't be beans to ship north to cover shortages. in august. sure more beans in north Dakota and Canada but will they be offset by losses in hail from neleigh ne. to at least Villisca ia. and all the flooding. when they shut down gavins point to handle flood waters in iowa.beans for fall deliver are still worth $15.00 4

  78. JD Farmer says:

    Bryce says retail prices are going up because of the drought in California and record beef prices. Corn and wheat prices are way down yet the price of a box of cereal and a loaf of bread haven't come down at all. Last time I checked there is no beef in a box of cereal and a loaf of bread so why hasn't those items come down? Ethanol is trading about $1 cheaper than rbob gas so you can't blame ethanol like so many like to do. With the rise in global supply's of corn and especially wheat, bread and cereal should be dirt cheap. Maybe Bryce could explain why this is.

  79. JD Farmer says:

    35 counties in MN declared state of emergency by governor Dayton today because of all the rain. We won't be adding to the so called burdensome supply the experts said we would have. So much for the "ideal" growing conditions.

  80. SE Farmer says:

    With all the rain in the midwest, I just wonder about all the nitrogen leaching out and depriving the plant at the wrong time. On another note, the last two years increasing food prices was to blame for midwest drought, but this year we have a glutton of corn not to mention World Record yields this year, but food prices are still high. We better start becoming self sustained on the farm or we are all gonna be looking for a job.

  81. Thirsty for Knowledge says:

    Better build bins hold grain until price goes up. If holding grain next spring. No need to plant very much more. They only pay well for shortages.

  82. SE Farmer says:

    Farming is the only profession where Gods grace and success are penalized.

  83. jim leach of farmer says:

    did you notice soybean meal is back in demand in china? another one of those miracle turn arounds in china first it was the economy now soybean meal.

  84. jim leach of farmer says:

    soybean export sales for 2014/15 are picking up , close to what they were at this time last year. now the countries that are buying evidently don't expect south America to have beans left. but we seem to be selling them at a discount . exports,domestic use and carryover show up short 90,000,000bu.4,000,000acres @45.3bu acre =181,2000,000bu not enough to cause a large carryover with usage,exports like this year.

  85. Bryce says:

    Food prices at the retail level are rising due to the drought in California and record beef prices. As Earl Butz used to say, the cost of wheat is only worth one slice of the cost of the bread.

  86. jim leach of farmer says:

    if we are to get 90,000,000,bu. of soybeans imported , how much soybean meal are we going to get? /

  87. jim leach of farmer says:

    the may wasde says that we won't reach 1,750,000,000bu or I thought that was the highest number of exports predicted. we are at 1,757,036510bu. with the export sales to south korea,thailand ,and mexico. or are they telling us that china and unknown destination won't take there 187,008,613 bu. but that doesn't quite add up. is it because of are waterways system that congress refuses to modernize,or the railroads refusal to double track with the old lines made to service 200,000,000 people instead of todays population that we won't get it delivered. maybe farmers won't sell for $5.00 or less.

  88. kurt says:

    With these big carryovers the USDA says were going to have, then why are food prices going up? Who's causing these prices to go up? Were supposedly producing more oil than ever and I'm still paying more than 3.50 @ the pump & almost 4.00 for diesel? It's an insult to all farmers when they tell us food prices are going up & there's starving people in the world but looking forward we could have a burden supply of corn, wheat & beans? What a terrible thing that would be to actually have enough food for people. Has anyone ever gone to the grocery store and thought to yourself, this store has a burden supply of food? On one hand their telling us we need the crops because of tight supplies and good demand and on the other hand their telling us were going to produce too much and have burdensome supplies. How absurd. There's coming a day however when the bible says there's going to be a famine. I wonder when that happens if they'll be wishing they had that "burdensome" supply?

  89. Bryce says:

    About my 2014 soybean forecast for May report, I used a moderate trend yield of 43.4 bpa, but USDA as expected stuck to the big yield it used in February outlook forum estimates. I think it's a tad early for that.

  90. jim leach of farmer says:

    as I predicted the wasde report would move 50,000,000bu here and there. moved 50,000,000bu. wheat to food from feed. 50,000,000bu. of corn not needed. anybody knows if you are going to raise weights that it takes more grain pre lb. of meat. they started with the same high carryover of corn this year as they are predicting for next year under optimum conditions. I wonder how much this price control report has cost farmers? these report ought to be on 5yr averages. I've watch one firm makes a report that doesn't have to agree with other reports it still becomes fact.

  91. jim leach of farmer says:

    I don't think 3,000,000acres of soybeans with a yield of 44.3bu. per acre= 132,900,000bu. is going to be too much when we are having to import 90,000,000bu. and carryover so low it will hardly cover the pipeline. that 2,454,322metric tons out of world supply not expected . they will probably be shipping beans north from la. to cover. if we could get true reading on usage of South America soybeans.

  92. JD Farmer says:

    USDA has to raise imports up to 90 million bu just to keep the 130 million bu carryover? Must mean we only have 40 million bu left in the bin (if that).

  93. Mark Nichols of None says:

    If new crop ending stocks were no surprise, why were your numbers so low?

  94. jim leach of farmer says:

    corn sales are short 2,301,923bu. with the cancellation yesterday, with this weeks sales. next week without anymore cancellation, sales should be positive again our sales people better get out and beat the bushes harder after this week poor performance.

  95. jim leach of farmer says:

    soybean sales are back on the positive side, 894,748bu. for the two weeks. I don't know what were selling? maybe the imports? I don't know why people pay so much attention the wadse report all they do is slide 50,000,000bu here and there to control price.

  96. kurt says:

    To Jim's comment on how much Brazilian farmers loose every year, the usda & the cbot don't want us to know about that. They just want to tell us how much production they have. It's another way to manipulate the market. A few years ago the usda said we produced a 160 bpa plus corn crop but somehow forgot to tell everybody how bad the test weights were & how many millions of bushels were rotten & got hauled back to the fields but it was a bushel produced.

  97. jim leach of farmer says:

    corn cancellation sort of caught me by surprise. I would always suspect unknown destination. but spain was a surprise. it not much compare to the whole crop. it won' come off total sales for 10 days the way the system is setup. 8,639,400bu. I don't know what the penalty $$ is for cancellation, but sure some way it makes way back to the farmer.

  98. jim leach of farmer says:

    according to high quest partners Brazilian farmers loose 183,350,000bu. of soybeans along the road to market. I wonder when usda and the Chicago board of trade account for this loss, its more than our predicted carryover. quite sizable compared to a lot of shipments

  99. james leach of farmer says:

    with a minus soybeans sale of 601,388bu. of soybeans this week, these cancellations have not shown to total anything big, they are being bought up pretty fast or not reported. with the increase in world population and new products from soybeans coming on the market. we probably won't know the total number of imports for a long time. the mush room theory,you know, but I really don't think the increase in acres in Canada and the u.s. will make a surplus situation.

  100. james leach of farmer says:

    corn sales for export are approaching the 1,750,000,000bu, there at 1,731,007,388bu. should pass the government expectation in 2 weeks if not one. I still think there is a chance for 2,000,000,000 bu., 17 weeks left in the marketing year. the big problem is getting it out of here. that out of farmers hands except if the trade will pay enough to get it from the farmers. I still say corn is worth $ 6.00bu and beans $15.00 a bu. to the farmer.

  101. jim leach of farmer says:

    soybeans sales are almost over,because there nothing left really to sell. sales left to ship 95,492,347bu. 2,981,271bu. to china, 27,931,539 bu. to unknown, so you can see any amounts are incidental. there was a story that china was back in the market in south America, there vice premier was on tour and that when they have made big purchases in the past, like in iowa a couple of times. I would say that the downside in the last week was trying to shake some loose.

  102. jim leach of farmer says:

    soybean sales keep in the positive even with so called cancellations. by so called, I mean they have been resold or negotiated, probably at a higher price with the bubble in bean prices, since the inauguration there has been a concerted effort to keep grain prices low. beans should be $15.00 a bushel, corn $6.00 a bushel to the farmer. with all inputs the same as they are now.

  103. james leach of farmer says:

    on a blog on another site they were making a big deal about march and april corn exports from the Ukraine. I don't know what the big deal was we had two piles of corn outside 15 miles apart that were bigger they disappeared in three weeks once they started on them .seaboard keeps more on hand this time of year. lets keep things in perspective instead of trying to kill the market with nothing. 4.583,750 million bu. of soybeans imported aren't enough to fill the bottom bins in a 26,000,000bu elevator. there sure seems to be more of a concerted effort to keep grain cheap.

  104. JD Farmer says:

    With China supposedly slowing down and with the pedv virus in the pigs, last week USDA announced the highest or one of the highest monthly crush numbers in beans ever? Just where in the heck is all this sb meal going & what's eating it?

    • Bob replies says:

      In one word exports. We all saw the huge NOPA crush, but there was another big number in that report. March exports were up 25% from a year ago at nearly 799,000 tons. The latest weekly USDA export table shows Latin America took a lot (Venezuela, Mexico, Panama, etc) , with Japan and Egypt buying too. Of course, with the South American crop hitting the market, it will be interesting to see if this business continues.

  105. Mich Bill says:

    What do you mean , you should be out of soybeans ! Bryce told you to sell them months ago for $ 3 a bushel less !

  106. Well guys, if you producers out there want to be taking profits. Then you need to be able to hold grain for 2 years. Sell enough to pay bills. Then sell the whole bin when there is profit to be taken. Remember the market ONLY PAYS for shortages. = profit. Put that in your marketing plan. Guess what we are out of soybeans. There is a shortage now and where is the price NOW.

  107. kwr says:

    Not sure I agree with 'wheat can recover from freeze'. once the wheat starts jointing the head is already forming. If those cells freeze they won't produce a seed. Perhaps foliage will recover, but I've been here too many time. As the head extends you can see to the T, the head cells that froze and those that didn't.

    • Bob says:

      I do not disagree with you. A lot of things have to go right for wheat to recover, but it can happen. We saw that in 1997, when a frost hit Kansas the second week of April. One problem this year is the wheat there is in fairly dire shape.

  108. SE Farmer says:

    Just wondering how this works? Two days ago soybeans were down because of fears of defaults on bean shipments because of slowing chinese economy, but today beans are at a fresh nine month high on news of better than expected economic growth from China. Mighty speedy recovery.

  109. jim leach of farmer says:

    i' m worried about Asian Rust coming from Brazilian soybeans and the Catipilar that eats on the beans. the Brazilian farmers have to spray multiple times for each of these during the season. brazil soybeans and the Catipilar that is eating on Brazilian soybeans

  110. jim leach of farmer says:

    china only has 9,636,876bu left to receive fom u.s, exports1,648,824,495bu.. domestic crush 1,685,000,000bu. total 3,333,824,495bu. u.s. only raised 3,292,000,000bu. of soybeans. there was talk on the wasde report of 3.490,000,000,bu in play so will 81,000,000acres of soybeans cover demand next year, I doubt it.

  111. Thristy for knowledge says:

    Well guys, if you producers out there want to be taking profits. Then you need to be able to hold grain for 2 years. Sell enough to pay bills. Then sell the whole bin when there is profit to be taken. Remember the market ONLY PAYS for shortages. = profit. Put that in your marketing plan. Guess what we are out of soybeans. There is a shortage now and where is the price NOW.

  112. JD Farmer says:

    I'm with SE Farmer on this profit taking we hear all the time. Who is really profiting here? Not the farmer. Must be the paper boys, (funds) after all their the ones making the market right? These people have no interest in using the actual product but rather if they can make some money at the casino.

  113. SE Farmer says:

    When I hear the words profit taking drive prices lower from paper farmers is like a bearing without grease to my ears!

  114. jim leach of farmer says:

    brazil winter corn plantings down 32%. 14,781,000,000bu.beginning stocks 13-14. usage 7,681,000bu. 4,458,469,000bu domestic use. leaving 7,100,000bu. for the last 6mo .2,500,000,000bu for ethanol 869,837,000bu.for export(china has 54,,326,000bu in play) leavin3,730,162,619.bu for domestic use, hard to get 1,625,000,000bu carryover???

  115. jim leach of farmer says:

    now that we have done the Chinese shuffle with the soybeans I wonder what the quality of the soybeans we're going get from brazil being as the Chinese are still wanting our soybeans. as of march 20 2014, the Chinese only had 30,000,000bu. of soybeans purchased from the u.s.a left. I hate comments soybeans are weak cause of lack of sales when we don't soybeans left sell after domestic consumption. now to next year people are worrying about 3,000,000, acres increase in acreage maybe more, but 78,000,000 acres were not enough this year. some brokers are estimating 50,000,000 bu. carry over. look at the drought monitor, not to encouraging for super yields. brazils yields down

  116. Bryce says:

    Jim, your math is right on, except for the part about rumors of beans used to cover 2012 crop contracts. Contracts aren't usage, they're sales to middlemen or users. But your point is well taken. As I've been saying in my weekly review on soybeans, we can cut demand or increase imports to keep from running out of soybeans this summer. Demand gets cut through cancellations, which has happened a little. Demand also gets cut by rationing, which happens from higher prices. That will take time, and why I have been bullish old crop. Imports from Brazil are also likely. Growers are also likely to plant early beans early to capture as much of the old crop premium as possible.

  117. thristy for knowledge says:

    On 1-23-2014 S E farmer said that we were selling beans to cheap. He also commented that we would be importing beans. We he was RIGHT. Gold star to him. I am glad that there is someone other than a talking that can see into future .

  118. jim leach of farmer says:

    lets do the math on soybeans: total 2013-2014 beans raised in the u.s. 3,290,000,000bu. crush use according to march 2014 wasde report 1,690,000,000bu. exports according to fas.usda. gov/export-sale /summfax.htm 1,434,350,717bu. shipped. sales left to ship 1949890580bu. making a total of 3,319,339,775bu. accounted as used. 29,339775bu. over production. there are rumor out there that 51,000,000bu. of 2013-2014 beans used to cover 2012-2013 contracts. this take 80,000,000bu. out of the 150,000,000bu. reserve leaving a total of 70,000,000,bu. little hard sell something you haven't got. so I don't want to hear that we only sold 7,400,000bu. last week when we didn't have an amount to sell with the way yields are puffed by the government.

  119. james l.leach of farmer says:

    do the math: march 2014 wadse report shows total available corn for 2013-2014 14,781,000,000bu. a total usage of 13,325,000,000bu. leaving a carryout of 1,456,000,000bu. instead of 1,625,000,000bu.. I really think exports will hit 2,000,000,000bu.. sales and shipments are already at 1,547,677,824bu.

    • Bryce says:

      U.S. export sales are looking better (my latest forecast is up to 1.651 billion) but 2 billion won't happen without Russian tanks taking over Ukraine and/or some serious weather issues around the world. It could happen, but that's a lot to gamble on.

    • SD farmer says:

      I don't think shipments are at 1.55 billion already. And remember sales don't matter to china, I'll believe we will export 2 billion bushels. after its all loaded on a boat.

  120. brad choquette says:

    sold 20% of insurance guarantee July 2015 wheat for $7.10 cash two days ago. I'm looking forward to a different rotation.

  121. Thristy for knowledge says:

    Well guys good comments. But it you guys want to best the system!! Your going to have to have storage for 2 years worth of grain. Sell only what you need to pay bills. The market only pays well when there is a shortage. So create one with full bins. When the price gets profitable sell the bin cash. Learn from the last 3 to 5 years. Farming is not the same as last year. Its a new creature.

    • Mich Bill says:

      I agree with your thinking here Thirsty, I believe your on the right track, Only bad draw back is if a World crisis comes along and prices sky rocket you have to tell yourself you sold at the price you wanted in that time frame and move on .

  122. JD Farmer says:

    Anybody notice that there were 428000 bean contracts traded on 2/27/14? That comes out to 2.14 billion bushels or about two thirds of our entire crop were traded in one day. We supposedly only have 150 million bushels on hand so how do you trade more bushels than what we really have? Anybody believe now that the funds are really making our markets? I heard that there was some end of the month "profit taking" and some of the funds that were long had to either get out of their positions or deliver the beans which we all know they didn't have so therefore we had a sell off. So who is really "profiting" here? Is it the farmers or the funds? This so called thing we call the "markets" is nothing more than a casino controlled by the funds. No wonder all the analyst out there say that trading is "high risk". Who's causing the "high risk"? They want you to sign up for their newsletter and get you to trade with them because they get a cut for every trade you do with them. Good luck placing your bets at the casino.

  123. sand plain farmer says:

    I would like to see "full disclosure" from every market analyst. Who writes their pay check, what market positions they hold. I am sure that none of these websites, media outlets or publications are run by farmers. We're told to lock in profits,be grateful, buy price insurance, then grow another bin-buster. This ensures a profit for the commercial chain " above" us. Buying insurance is really a wager. The party selling the puts and calls is in it for the money. Funny how the REAL risk, crop insurance, needs the backing of the taxpayer.

  124. JD Farmer says:

    To sand plain farmer, don't feel like a sucker I sold my beans a while back. All the so called experts said we should sell because China's going to cancel a bunch of beans because of SA big crop that's cheaper. Now all of a sudden the SA crop isn't so great and so far China hasn't canceled any beans. Looks like the so called experts were wrong.

  125. sand plain farmer says:

    I unloaded my "gambling stocks" 3 weeks ago, I'm 30% forward sold. Why am I feeling like a sucker? Free advice can get expensive. Technical analysis is the equivalent of climatology. Cold enough for ya?

  126. John Doe Farmer says:

    There must be so many beans left out there that my local co-op widened the basis 10 cents ( 50 under ) today !! Ain't that amazing..I'm holding tight .

    • MyPlantarFasciitis.org of http://myplantarfasciitis.org/ says:

      There are a lot of blogs and articles out there on this topic, but you have acquired another side of the subject. This is reliable content thank you for sharing it.

  127. SE Farmer says:

    Bryce is this China's new way of canceling crops without a penalty or being frowned upon? Oh we found MIR 162 in foreign matter, we can't take it now. Foreign matter you gotta be kidding me. Who else sees this for what it is?

    • Bryce says:

      China is trying to discourage imports of corn because they have a big crop, but high domestic prices are just shifting demand to milo and other alternatives. Yes, it's a game, but this time it's being played by the government. Cancellations of soybean purchases are a market transaction in the private sector. Remember, when we say China is buying, it's not the government doing the buying.

  128. Mich Bill says:

    Comments to SD Farmer on 2/11 it depends on who your asking for thoughts ! Bryce , someone on this site or the Spell Caster :)

  129. SD farmer says:

    Something tells me the USDA is trying to buy acres with the increase in exports and the huge jump in feed demand from last year. Then later the EPA will cut the ethanol mandate and more corn will show up in the quarterly stocks report to really put the final nail in the corn market. I think we really need to plant less acres of corn this year but will have a big acres number if the crop insurance price is set at these current prices. Any thoughts?

    • Bryce says:

      USDA doesn't care what the corn acres are. The world isn't a big conspiracy theory, guys.

  130. John Doe Farmer says:

    SE Farmer, in regards to new crop marketing, I did breakevens on all my fields this week.At the current prices we can get for next fall around here it's pretty good on the owned land..got some share rent ground and thats o.k.. But on the cash rent ground..gulp..Now I used a very reasonable yeild (45) but still if you get a low yeild it looks like trouble. I'm waiting .Don't even look at breakevens on Corn..Yikes !!

  131. SE Farmer says:

    John Doe Farmer I am with you on this. My gut feeling tells me that bean prices are going to go up. It was the same story last year in that China switched origin and then had to switch back because they couldn't get boats loaded. Investors could care less what we get. .50/bu on $8 beans is the same as .50/bu on $15 beans. Mich Bill is right about what China will do on Monday. Are any of you locking in beans for new crop yet?

  132. Mich Bill says:

    China will come back on Monday and cancel previous purchases and drive our old crop soybean prices down and with south Americas currency tied to the US dollar there prices will go down to plus the harvest pressure there . So China will buy cheap Soybeans again all summer long.

  133. John Doe Farmer says:

    Don't you think the old crop Soybean market could get very interesting as we go farther into 2014 ? No cancelations from China yet, demand keeps going strong. Yes I know the South America crop is out there but we hear that every year. blah.blah.blah. Talking heads have most producers sold out of beans. Long time till next falls harvest .I'm gonna hang on to my old crop a while yet !

  134. JD Farmer says:

    Big oil wants the EPA to do something about the RFS saying it's hurting consumers. I wonder how the consumer is feeling now that Nat gas & LP has sky rocketed? Farmers haven't used hardly any gas the past couple years yet we still get blamed. To say big oil is a bunch of hypocrites would be an under statement.

  135. Aussielou says:

    Viability here in south east Australia is about AUD$275/t delivered port for 10.5% protein white wheat. If CBOT wheat gets too much under 600c/bu we will be on hand and knee for a sub AUD85c fx rate to make a buck. Does this make any sense to y'all

  136. kurt says:

    Wonder how much later variety corn will get planted with LP over $4/gallon? It will probably come down some but how much? I'll probably be switching to earlier maturities and planting even less corn. Why risk planting corn and losing money when I can farm over the phone and buy it for less than the cost of production? As of this writing corn is only about .30 plus cents a bushel higher than oats. I would have a lot less inputs and be able to sell the straw.

  137. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys!! It is time for how much crop insurance is going to be worth. The price discovery period start February 1 st until the end of February. If you growers out there want crop insurance to be a safety net and not than anchor . You all better be ready to starve the computer to push up the price of grain. March 1 st if the price is good sell and crash the market. Why that will take care of the S American problem for years to come. Let them try out than 1980's type of crash. So hold that grain to push to discovery price up to make crop insurance work. Remember there is no farm bill yet.

    • dave says:

      yes no one wants to remember the 80s 19% intest rates. 40 cent prime cattle after hilary clintons dairy bonanza!! ( made 2 million bucks in 4 days her and refco and usda bull shit. tit for tat trade barriors for the grain reserve call up dollar corn and wheat 40$ re tax on dollar corn and wheat. death tax, inheritance tax , gift tax on all the peasants etc irs says all farm losses are paid with after tax income on a 7.00$ hr job etc. (happy retirnment succor!!! those days are coming again!!!

  138. farmer joe says:

    Thanks for the reply SE farmer, that puts things in a little better perspective, also kind of what I was thinking. Seems a little ridiculous, but with everything else going on not unbelievable. Can anyone here tell me how the USDA gets their numbers as far as the ending crop numbers? Was a lot of people around here including me who took corn wet to get the positive basis selling it as old crop. Just wondering if they count that as last year or this, if last year, wont there be a surprise somewhere?

    • Fridge repairs Croydon of http://www.agsrefrigeration.co.uk/ says:

      elling it as old crop. Just wondering if they count that as last year or this, if last year, wont there be

    • SE Farmer says:

      Beans in china $21.14/bu. Beans in US $12.72/bu. Seems logical to me!

  139. SE Farmer says:

    Farmer Joe we we need to keep our commodity prices low so other countries can buy cheap and make a hefty profit. The paper farmers like to be able to make more profit that than the farmers do. Hopefully Americans are smart enough to catch on to the game that is being played now. If you think about what happened in the bean market the last two years. China spread rumors about switching origin to SA and our prices begin to drop. But yet they kept on buying $16+US beans because if SA can't get beans to ports, the surplus does them no good. Same crap this year. Market is dropped .40 because of rain in SA (on a crop that logistics haven't changed very much) and the thought of China cancelling on US Beans. They will get the price down on rumors, but yet they are steady buying. What we will end up with is US end users will have to import beans because all the cheap beans will be headed to China. America needs to watch what they are doing and not listen to what they say.

  140. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys, does anyone out want help out Farmer Joe . I like his question and I would like someone else's take on it. How about a comment from you Ms.TxT haven't heard from you in a while. This should be in your realm of things. Joe you can look at my take on things from my 12-22 post. Short answer. We are a free market competing against the world with no government support. And this year even crop insurance will be of any help because low market price. Here something for all of you who are going to raise more soybeans. If S. America grows the soybean crop that is forecasted. They will have a 5 billion bushel crop to add to our 3.25 billion bushel crop. There is going to be a shortage of ships????

  141. farmer joe says:

    Hey guys, new here and just wondering if anybody could let me in on why prices in foreign countries aren't as low as here, I always see that grain prices are globally controlled, if there is a surplus worldwide, then prices go down. What about wheat? Sure supplies are good worldwide,but wheat is higher in other countries, and there really isn't that much of a surplus here is there? Maybe silly questions but any help would be appreciated. Would just like to understand a little more.

  142. sand plain farmer says:

    Confucius say "Believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see". Some people will accept that as fact, because I put it on the inter-web. A healthy dose of skepticism is the best defense against BS.

  143. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys there are still some of you like Kurt that are that trying to make sense of the CANCELED BOAT LOADS. Because if you are going to beat the computer you need to know what is going on in your big backyard. The world!!! BUT first for all of you guys out there that have closed the bin doors. My hat is off to you all. WHY! When the talking grain heads are whinning about poor grower grain sales into the market place. Well that could mean the pipeline is starting to runout. To screw with the computer, you have to store it. When it gets hungery it will bid higher for your grain. This is a good start. Back to Kurt. You have done good and asked a lot of the right questions . But with China canceling the boat loads. Its a money thing. When corn in China goes below $10.25 a bushel. By law they have to buy all the corn on their open market until the price goes above support. That is something this country no longer does and that has been enforced by our friends at the W T O. The Chinese government currently owns over 2 billion bushels of corn. That and at $10.25 a bushel is a lot of corn and capital tied up that is in storage and is a burden on their market as is this 2.5 billion bushel glut of corn that we are dealing with here. In China farmers are paid well over $10.00 a bushel for corn. Then they get to feed that corn to animal to get eggs, bacon, or steak. I guess someone is making money in the world. The VIP rejected grain boats was a way to keep China's AG from collapsing. China probability paid a cancellation fee that paid for senting the load else where. The news guys tried to get a story going but the computers were programed to dismiss the stories. If not you guys might be looking at $2.00 corn now. FOLLOW THE MONEY, WHEN THINGS DON'T MAKE SENSE. As for stealing corn seed. Why not they have stole everything else. Right now China grows 95% of the corn it needs. Now the BILLION dollar question is. And with the new seed that we donated to them. Well that should put them into a position of being a corn exporter in the next 3 to 5 years. Have you guys got a plan for that. I don't make this crap up. I collect the facts and the numbers and connect the dots. If this is the case then we are all in for fun times. I hope I am wrong about China becoming a corn exporter. It would not be good.

  144. kurt says:

    This whole thing with China supposedly rejecting some gmo corn is BS. They really never rejected it, the ship or ships just went to a different port in China. It's just another way for China to manipulate our markets. They have way too many people and livestock to feed to reject one strain. By the way, with the millions of bushels they buy how did they possibly find this one strain? Why is China stealing our corn traits when they've been telling us for years they've been producing record corn crops? Maybe we should be stealing their corn traits.

  145. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys and since I an Thristy for Knowledge. Maybe some of you would be willing to comment on your seed buying for this year coming up. So if you could share your view as to why your doing the way you are this year. Reason I asking is I read a poll done a couple if weeks ago that said "46% of growers have not bought any seed yet". So what I want to know is. Is this number correct and maybe some of your reasons for buying now or waiting. Has anyone canceled their order because they got a better deal else where. I would appreciate your comments. Thank you.

  146. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys I just read that the corn guys are cutting 5 million acres of corn. Here is where the brain fart happens. This is rocket science at its greatest! They are now going to grow that cheap to grow crop that is called soybeans. Guess how many acres more of bean these guys are going to grow? 5 million more arces than last year. Well you guys might as well. Because none of you won't be happy until you get beans down that level of a bushel of corn and a dollar on top of that will buy you all the bushels of beans you want. To SE Farmer. From what I came up with from my reading. The Chinese government has this corn price gauranttee . I think it is about $10.25. If the price of corn goes below that the government has to buy the low price corn to push the price back up. Right now the Chinese government owns 2 billion bushels of corn that is in government storeage. They are out of space. Plus they grew 95% of the corn they need to supply there own needs. Its been a good setup, but those damn computers got it figured out. That if they buy $4..00 U S corn, there is money selling it to the government at a real profit. The Chinese has seen what over production and supply has done for our markets. They don't want what we got going on here over in there country. I think it would be areal mess. So SE Farmer I hope that gives you some insight as to why they canceled some boat loads. That is than other reason no one here got to upset about it. FOLLOW THE MONEY. ESPECIALLY WHEN SOMETHING DOESN'T MAKE SENSE. THE Chinese government cares about there farmers as for our government they just can't throw enough road blocks in are way. Maybe we all need to take the hint that we need to do just the minimum growing this year. The computers only pay money for corn or beans if the crop is short . Last year at this time corn was $7.25 a bushel. What is the different between the two years. Last year about 11 billion bushel. This year 14 billion bushel. Here maybe the simple answer. There was not enough bin space to hold it all. You guys want to grow 15 billion bushels and make money. You better build more and bigger bins so you can store 2 years worth of grain. Also be ready to sell a bin full at a time when the market is right. FARMING CHANGED THIS YEAR. WHAT YOUR GRAND FATHER DID, AND YOUR DAD DID, YOU DID UP TO 2012. WELL THAT ISN'T GOING TO MAKE IT IN TODAYS NEW MARKETING SYSTEM. YOU ARE WORKING AGAINST A COMPUTER. DON'T FORGET THAT. THE GUY BEHIND THE COUNTER IS OWNED BY THE COMPUTER. THE ONLY WAY TO BEAT THE COMPUTER IS TO ALWAYS HAVE A SHORT CROP. LOOK WHAT IT HAS DONE FOR THE OIL GUYS. RIGHT NOW SOMETHING YOU CAN'T EAT IS WORTH MORE A GALLON THAN A BUSHEL OF CORN. I have lived long enough to see diesel fuel cost more than a bushel of corn. Guess what guys. We are a float in oil in this county but I don't see diesel fuel coming down anytime soon. There is something to think about for Christmas . And with that I leave with this. Have a quite Christmas and good New Year.

  147. SE Farmer says:

    I am calling BS on the whole China rejection of this GMO strain. I am not smart enough to know exactly what this strain is, but did the US only grow this strain in 13'? If not, why haven't they rejected any corn before now. Did we not export this strain to them last year at all? Are we as AMERICANS not smart enough to figure this out or does the market take this into account already? Bryce, Do you think this was corn that China bought back when higher prices were the norm and are looking for ways get out of those prices? I agree with TFK, in that if us as farmers don't come together and decide that we need to cut back 30% next year. Forget idle 10. If we try to out think the next farmer, and decide that I shouldn't cut back because enough farmers will cut back we will be looking at $2/corn. We have to stick together.

  148. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys: here is a Christmas story with all the characters of the Dickens novel. If you think drought is the answer it better make the last one look wet. I am sorry to say there are two major problems with corn. There could be a thrid one but they haven't got it grown yet or shipped out. I don't know which one to blame for first place. Those mindless computers or the Chinese and the protectionist approach given there corn growers. You see the Chinese govt has a small problem these days. The Chinese govt owns in there storage system almost 2 billion bushels of corn it had to buy. By there own setup when corn goes under $10.25 a bushel in country the government has to buy it. ( I hope the my numbers are correct ). SO FOLLOW THE MONEY IF NOTHING ELSE MAKES SENSE. The Chinese government is now the owner of 2 billion bushels of corn. They grow about 95% of the corn they use and import than other 5%. Here is something to think about. What happens if in the next 5 years that China becomes a corn exporter. Now you can understand why the Chinese canceled those boat loads of corn. The government storage space like in this country are full and ground piling is not good. So as I see it we who all grow corn. There are 3 ways to go and the first one is probably the best and with the most survivors. That is sit on the corn you got left. Grow only enough to refill the bin. Sell only when you need cash to operate. Or grow corn like you did this year but you better build storage space for it all. Or grow corn like you did this year so you get 15 billion bushels in 2014. That way you guys can take 2015 off. There will be so much carry over you won't need to plant grain corn in 2015. This last option is only for the strong. Its the race to the bottom and under $2.00 corn. If this happens it will make the housing mess look like good and fun times. Because there will not be enough neighbors with cash to buy up the farms that go down. I see farm land at half of its value today and nice newer farm equipment selling for a quarter of what it is selling to day. Those computers that control the price of grain and brought us to this point will take us further down this rabbit whole. But they will get caught up will and be done worst than the Wall street banks. So decisions are going need to be made. Grow corn or soybeans hedgerow to hedgerow. That will work even better in 2014. Or everyone cuts back. THE LESSON FOR THIS YEAR IS. THEY ONLY PAY FOR SHORTAGES. BUMPER CROPS ARE A FAST WAY DOWN THE TIOLET. Last year corn was about twice as much as it is now. WHY?? We didnt have a 2 billion bushel carryout. If the crop came in at 11 billion the price would be the same as last year and possibly heading higher. This should be the cure for the New Years, "let's go get them". Has anyone taken a hard look at crop insurance this this up coming year. It is more disappointing than $3.00 dallor corn. But the beauty thing is it will pay out on $3.00 corn but not much higher. Now there is a real safety net. It back to the good old days that I use to tell the guys. " If you can't to afford to disc it. Don't planted it ". Happy 2014.

  149. sand plain farmer says:

    I'm going to keep an eye on the drought monitor. Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska currently are dry and the Pacific Ocean is leaning towards La Nina. Moisture deficits need abnormally high amounts of precipitation to correct. Frozen soil doesn't help.

  150. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys, this is a year to drink Pepsi (beer) and float with the current. No beer you are on the job. REMEMBER YOU HAVE TO STRAVE THE COMPUTERS TO GET HIGHER PRICES. What does that means for those of you out there reading this is. You sit on your grain until the price goes up. That corn is about worthless at $4.00 cash. Sell it now if you need a tax loss to claw back some tax money. Also wait until they tell you what crop insurance is going to pay out this year at 80% level. You make more $$$ if you leave everything in the shed. But here is the new marketing program. You better get to have the ability to hold 2 growing seasons worth of grain. This summer if you still have more than half of your grain left. Well that is a good thing. Money in your bank. You wont need to plant as much. Keeps the overhead down. They say that we are no longer all that important in the world market. Well maybe but I am thinking that we are still major players. Like in sports. When a big time player feels he isn't played enough. He semi retires until more money is offered and he goes back to work. Well guys how does it make you feel about over coming a very wet and muddy spring and dry summer and bring in a record crop. That something we all should feel good about! FEED THE WORLD! That is some reward the market place has shown you. I know let's really show them and grow a 15 billion bushel crop in 2014. Here something to think about. This is by the numbers. Let's grow 15 billion bushels in 2014. With is years carryout and next years. We will not need to grow grow 1 stalk of grain corn in 2015. How? No exports and no biofeuls from corn. We will still have enough carryout corn the get through 2015 even with no imports. If we could pull that off it would be a feat for the record books. I don't think that has ever been done before. It's doable in 2015. After a nice summer off. Everyone back to work because there is now a shortage and the market will pay for a shortage. As a neighbor would say to this "NICE". And a good New Year to all.

  151. Bryce says:

    We've recommended pricing 10% of 2014 corn already and that can be bumped up if Dec 2014 can get to $4.75. Plan to get to 30% after the January USDA reports -- see if they offer any help. The market doesn't have a lot of reasons to buy acres. As for old crop soybeans, $13 cash looks pretty good -- a $3 profit margin. That's not Apple, but it's not bad at all. We've recommended being 80% done, and it's time to get down to gambling stocks.

  152. kurt says:

    TFK your spot on with your comments. The only problem I see is that most farmers can't get it through their heads that producing LESS grain and doing half the work will make them MORE money. Most think because the prices are down I need to produce more so I have more to sell. So produce more so there's even more grain on the market right? If your not going to cut acres then cut the amount of fertilizer you put on next year. If you did that though, farmers would probably not write in and brag about how good their yields are like they do on other web sites for the whole world and the USDA to see. Maybe those farmers like working for LESS than the cost of production and losing money.

  153. B Choquette says:

    How much 2014 new crop soybean production should producers sell prior to the planting intentions report and SA new crop? 20-40% of insurance guarantee?

  154. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys how is that below $4.00 corn working for you. Since very thing that was done by your grandfather, dad, and you up to this last year was done because that the way they did it. Well I think that is over with. Now you have to deal with mine less computes. The only way to beat them is starve them. If you guys can't store 2 years of grain on the farm. Well sad times for you. Better build more bins. Also if you guys cut back on production you will be rewarded. Grow than other 14 billion bushel crop next year and you may get to sell at $2.00 a bushel. For the rest of the year. Sell what you need to keep the lights on. The corn in the bin you get to sell once. If you still have half of the corn crop in the bin. Then you won't have plant as much in 2014 to refill the bin. Here's a fun fact. As of 2 weeks ago 46 % of growers have not bought 1 bag of seed for the 2014 crop. Seed and the other inputs haven't followed corn down. Deere is starting to whinne that sales are down. My guess is if things don't turn around soon. That land bubble isn't going to go a little soft. It could make the housing bubble look fun. Because in AG and the way the system is setup. Once something is gone it's gone. Farm, elevator, even rail lines have gone down in times like these. Never to be seen again.some of you only need to look out your window. REMEMBER!! IN TODAYS NEW WORLD OF MARKETING THEY ONLY PAY FOR SHORTAGES. Wrap your head around that concept and prosper.

  155. SE Farmer says:

    I would say that Mich Bill hit the nail on the head. I guess China cancelled out on some beans they bought earlier this year for an obviously higher price only to buy them back cheaper the same day. Bryce what can the US do to keep from what Mich Bill said from happening? I know earlier you said that relationships are what makes these deals, but it seems to me China could care less because they know we won't do anything about it.

  156. Mich Bill says:

    Looks like China is front load buying there beans thru Feb 14 until SA crop comes online then will cancel our beans driving the price down only to buys them back at a cheaper price, using the competition from SA to get them cheaper . should we be selling ALL of them now on these rallys above $13 Bryce ? I mean 90 % of USDA commitment has already been reached and we still have aprox 7 mil acres still unharvested and if they go unharvested because of the weather we could be looking at no carry over and sharply higher prices. Looking for some direction here !

  157. sand plain farmer says:

    How much corn would China chew through if their domestic price was $5? It's currently $9.69. Is someone profiteering? Are they protecting their farmers? It's the latter, same as Europe where corn is around $6.

  158. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys, this is to the S.E. Farmer. You are on the right path. Now to take it up to the next level. For all the guys that want to be here farming next year at this time. Conglaldulations to all of you who worked hard at bring in a 14 billion bushel corn crop. Your reward is $4.00 corn. So how is the race to the bottom working out here????. I have than idea that could work and the really sharp operators out should be able to pencil this out and make it work. Or you can have than other woodchuck year ( groundhog day - movie ). Go into semi retirement. Just do enough to keep the doors open and the lights on. If you can not have 3 days off durni g the week to do something off farm you not there yet. That time frame would start mid June until fall harvest. If you have wheat well that has to be taken care of. I did that program this year because of rain. There is life in semi retirement. Take the lead from the football quarterback a few years ago. When the money got right he was back and rested. You get to watch the neighbors run and show you how to make $3.70 cash corn work at paying the bills. It makes you sit back in your chair in front of your shop door and think, also do future planning. While you are there enjoy a cold soda or two. No drinking on the job. It's hard work just sitting and do nothing. Next slow day do a practice day to see if you can handle the pressure. Here's the deal. The world is still short on grain. We just grew 2 record crops to help to put a small surplus in the world supply. What did we get! $3.70 cash paid today corn. It was double that last year at is time right out out the field to the dock at 16%. So I know that all of you out there can't wait to grow a 15 billion bushel crop. Also with your race to the bottom how does $2.00 to $3.00 cash corn pencil out. So if you haven't dumped your corn yet and it is still in the bin. Leave it there. It is money in YOUR BANK. Sell just enough to operate on. Plant 1/4 to 1/2 of what you plant. Pay for the rented ground and plant clover for the free nitrogen for 2015. Do enough to keep the help busy plus offer them some extra days off played or free. Just let them know it us a 1 year deal. Then all of you go to something besides farming. Go do some farm shows or visit family. There a lot things to do for the price of a tank of gasoline. Well guys I guess you have found out what the market thinks of all of you. That you will grow to much and sell it for nothing just to get bin space for the next crop. Wouldn't be better just to buy more bins and control 2 years worth of grain. Because if you don't sell it the price will go up and there will be a $2.00 positive basis again. The choice will be yours this spring. Semi retirement and in joy the summer or beat yourself all up to grow that 15 billion crop and then figure out how too make $2.00 corn work. If 30% of you out there take the summer of and do retirement farming. You will also find your input and up front costs are way less. Then by July when the USDA figures out there is retirement farming a foot. That means that acreage is down. It will be like the drought year will out the drought. Here is something else for this equation the best guess I have got for crop insurance. Corn is around $3.90 a bushel. This years it was $5.65 ?. Well you all have time to run the numbers until planting time. I hope that all of you are here next year at this time. For those who went into semi retirement you will need to start gearing back up after the first of the year. Enjoy either way!

  159. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys you maybe will want to get your old corn burning stoves out. Looks like corn just might break $3.00 a bushel for Christmas. And they said that couldn't be done either.

  160. SE Farmer says:

    I agree with TFK. The USDA was so hyped on getting food prices (commodities) under control that they are doing everything in their power to bottom the markets. Whether it be from their BS reports of crop conditions, yield, intended planted acres, planted acres, SA acres, blah, blah. Same crap different year. Well they have gotten what they want, but why haven't food prices dropped. Why is it every time my wife goes to grocery store it costs so much. Because the same principal behind fuel prices. When hurricane Katrina hit and prices spiked, oil companies realized an important piece of information. We still bought high gas and haven't stopped since. Why did R&D, refining and drilling costs go up so much after Katrina? That's what we are told and we accept it. Once commodity prices are under control, then that takes the blame off of USDA for food prices. They don't care that every person after the commodity is making more money. It washes their hands. In my opinion what is going to happen is China is buying just as much corn and beans as they can get there hands on right now, while it is dirt cheap. All contracted corn and beans are going out of this country faster than you can shake a stick. End users in the US will end up with paying higher basis trying to pry corn from farmer's bins, all at the benefit of our HEAD BANKER! Basis here has gone from +.30 to +.60 in 1 month. I'll be damned if I am going to work my tail off just to give it away. I just wonder when this corn export inspections are going to start dropping, because there is no corn being sold. Like TFK said, run it through cows and get something for it.

  161. TxTumbleweed says:

    So what are we to make of the coincidental announcement from EPA, oddly just as the Chinese announce they are relaxing their "one child per couple" policy? Nothing to see here, move along! ;) Happy TG to everyone at FF. We appreciate your work, even though you do make a handy-dandy punching bag on occasion.

  162. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys, Sand plains has put it in a nut shell. "WATCH WHAT THEY DO, NOT WHAT THEY SAY!". There is a lot to be said for that. Also I think it is also time to stop looking at the grain market as a U S thing only. It's a world market market and only when the world is short on something does the price go up. Why do you think that Brice puts world prices in his column of what grain cost in other countries. I do some grain marketing. Nothing fancy just cherry pick for the high numbers and get a commission when I hit the target price and the owner is deer in the head lights when called. But this year I can take the season off. Why? Well grow 14 billion bushels of corn and 3.25 billion bushels of beans. Right know in the Finger Bowl ( Lakes ), cash corn is $3.70 and selling for that. Beans was down to $11.80. If I needed to buy corn or beans I guess I would have to buy a 2 year supply. At these prices the second year is free compared to last year. Park the corn equipment for the next two years. Take the summers off. The world DOES NOT care what the price is because they know you will grow 15 billion bushel next year just to say you can. That is until you run out of money and then friends. Our friends at the USDA have said and the BEAUTY part of this is. That there is no major surplus of any of the grains in the WORLD supply pipeline. To you Ms.TxT. are the Chinese expanding any major grain handing ports over there. And how bad are the crops. From what little I have gather is they are going to need everything. Well guys they are going to get the surplus for surplus prices. All I can say is good for them. And before you all beat up on me about the comment. Think you guys, you brought this mess on your selves. There is a lot of Earl Butts in all of you. Plant hedge row to hedge row. Next year we need a 15 billion bushel crop so we can get to the real money making days of $2.00 corn and $4.00 beans. Because we are so good at growing corn and beans you guys are putting me in to the cattle business. Why???. By Christmas I figure I should be able to buy a 3 year supply of corn for what what I could buy for one year last year. There is a great supply of young stock that is cheap to buy is in great demand by the outfits like Mac Donlds, Wendy's and others. That is old bossie. Holstein for the rest of you. Feed them heavy with cheap corn and no drugs. You can get 2.5 pounds a day gain and out walking pasture. Even with buying fence to fence off the corn field and a greenhouse type barn. It looks like a money maker in 2 years and a CASH cow the 3 Rd year. So guys who up for 15 billion corn at $2.00 a bushel. Let's feed the world and my small heard of of rejects from the milking string. Some what of a note. I poll I read the other day by a major AG magazine. They claim that 42% of you corn growers out there have NOT bought 1kerrel of corn seed for next year and than other 30% have bought less than 50% of the corn seed needed next year. I guess I can't blame you for not wanting to throw a seed in the ground that is worth what a dead pop can is worth when you turn it in for the reward.

  163. So MN says:

    Bryce, I'm hearing about beans and alot corn still in the fields in SE MN. The beans are wet and the elevators are already full of wet beans and won't take anymore. The corn is also wet (some still 30 plus yet) and the farmers and elevators are fighting for LP to dry it down. Have you heard anything about this?

  164. sand plain farmer says:

    TFK, you can bet that China learned some things last year and will try to avoid running short. I worried that Brazil's big bean crop last year would kill our prices so I sold out. Turned out I gave up $2 by selling so soon. Brazil's slow delivery of beans was partly due to ships in line for corn. I've heard that bean shipping will be a priority and that corn delivery will be delayed. It's encouraging to see improvements to the ports along the Pacific Northwest, it makes our exports more attractive.China tells us what they want us to hear. If we're cynical about USDA reports, Chinese data can only be less reliable. Watch what they do and ignore what they say.

  165. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys this is a question to Ms.TxT. You said in a pass post that you have knowledge of what is going on abroad. I was wondering if you know what kind of year that Chinese agriculture has had??. From what little I have been able to come up with is that they are short on wheat and corn. They are always short on beans. Because I ran into a problem up here in the Finger Bowl. I wanted to sell some wheat. Price is up so sell some. I stopped by the buyers place and they told me that the bins were full and peaked and they were not taking anything. I asked why, he told me there were no rail cars because they were stuck at the ports because there were no ships to haul it away. So here is the real question. These words a college professor use to tell me was. " if it don't make sense, follow the money." China has bought what 3/4 of what it bought all of last year. They have been getting grain really cheap. But what if China is getting ready to pull a Japan and crash like they did. That would start to explain why the grain markets are in the toilet and no one is doing much. Because the last time China was short beans they got up to $17.49 on the CBOT. When you look at what the USDA says that there is in the world supply. Most of all grains are tight. There is no days of use that goes out a few months. It all a few weeks. Yes S.A. is planting a record crop. Good luck with that. They have a corn worm that loves soybeans. They have no chemical to kill it. If they come off dry they won't have any yield. Then what?. I leave it at that. Any feed back will be helpful to me and anyone else that reads this column. What's why I am Thristy for Knowledge. Because knowledge is power and without you are no better than someone 300 years ago without it. Wouldn't be a real pain in the ass it there a was a real shortage of grain in the world, in the middle of our glut.

  166. Bryce says:

    B Choquette: Soybeans may have a little better potential than a "dead cat bounce," as the downside in the short run isn't falling off a cliff. I see rally potential for a couple of weeks, but want to sell into it, which I why I changed our recommendations to get started on more sales with another one at $13. See the weekly soybean review for more.

  167. TxTumbleweed says:

    @ Tfk, 11/04 South Amer is only a hit and miss producer of grains, because of their lackadaisical cultural philosophy and that attribute fades into their continent wide paltry infrastructure (i.e.grain storage, roads and rail lines). I have read that China is actively working with them to remedy those shortcomings, however I would be surprised to see meaningful improvement in such a massive undertaking within two decades. Progress in such projects down there can easily be derailed by political unrest. Have you kept abreast of what is going on right now in Venezuela?.................... Your thoughts on market manipulation by producers are contingent on a FREE market. Did you notice anything FREE about the numbers game USDA played on us in order to break the corn market in 2013? I imagine those of us who are in a favorable geography will go with alternative crops. I will transition to lower input grain (wheat), and cotton for a few seasons. I don't expect to much money, but to survive the three years remaining, of this anti-capitalist regime. My best wishes to all ag producers in 2014.

  168. B Choquette says:

    Bryce, do you think we've already hit the "dead cat bounce" for soybeans at around $13 and markets will continue to fall into the South American soybean harvest? Farmers have been selling $12-13 soybeans more easily than $3-4 corn. Will 2013 be one of those 3 years in 10 that there isn't a dead cat bounce on corn?

  169. sand plain farmer says:

    I'd bet China likes your idea Thirsty. They could afford to buy all that $3 corn, hold it until part two of your plan kicks in, dump it and kill any rally you're dreaming of. They wouldn't even have to load a boat. You want to start a price war with South America? We been in one for years, China likes that idea, too.

  170. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys. I am beginning to think that flooding the market with your crops that are still in the field and really crashing the markets is looking better. Two things that could happen is that S.A. doesn't plant all that it thinks it wants too. Price is to low for them. $3.00 corn is about what it costs to ship from field to port. Maybe Cargill has the right plan. It is cheaper to send corn and beans up river. The other thing is and I did this myself this year, and that was? I took the summer off. No row crops. Well with 5" of rain from May 21 to June 10 the it was time to pull the plug. Also at that time the only growing corn was a 2 foot wide strip over the field tile. I still did wheat and a lot of horse hay. I found out that there is life after no row crops for the year. I know we U S farmers have been beat to pulp about feeding the world. I don't have a problem with feeding the world. I also think that we should get a price for that grain that let's us live a comfortable life and to be able to just farm. Not that you have to have a whole bunch of side businesses to keep cash flow up enough to keep farming. Here is my definition of a farmer. A real farmer is where both spouses work on the farm. A hobby farmer is where one or both spouses work off the farm to help support the farm. I don't carn if they run 5 acres or 10,000 acres. If one spouse works off the farm then they are hobby farmers. So guys let me ask you this. Oh we can get through this year and low prices. But what about next year and corn is $3.00 a bushel and beans are $8.00. Then what are you guys going to plant 99 million acres of corn. It like us guys that like red paint. If it ain't red leave it in the shed. I think it is time to flood the market with grain that will derail S.A. planting intensions. As for us up here. Well you have grain in the bin. SIT on it. When the traders run out of grain after the flood. They will raise the price. If not hold it until next fall. For the summer put in enough row crops to keep the help busy. Better yet take the summer off. Keep the help busy fixing stuff you have put off for years. Till that ground that needs it. Basicly the 2014 season will probably be a good one to set out on the sidelines and leaving the equipment in the shed will pay better that beating for $3.00 corn. Push the pencil or I Pad. Also to put a number to personal do nothing time. It is worth twice what you get for working time. Thank you for comment Mich Bill. Lets here from some others out there. But here's the thing. We grew it and control it until we sell it. For the short term pain of flooding the markets with the over supply of 3 billion bushels of corn. Then let's use them bushels to get the price back up. Dump those 3 billion now and in a few months grain supplies will get tight again. Hold those extra bushels and starve.

  171. sand plain farmer says:

    Thirsty, farmers are individuals. We make decisions in our own self interest, not collectively. The Idle10 idea would have worked if ALL farmers participated, disastrous to the few who went with it. How many would agree to leave 10% in the field for the winter? Harvest what's left in the spring and leave that land fallow next year? That would help prices but it won't happen because individually, it's a really bad idea. The market is telling us not to plant corn next year and I'm listening.

  172. Mich Bill says:

    Thirsty i like your thinking , you have some good ideas, what about next year, everyone needs to idle acres but then SA will up theres and where will we be ! no grain and low prices. were cought by the short hair next year is going to be worse then this year, I know dont buy any fertilizer iam sure your ground is up to snuff to get by for one yr that will bring those prices down.

  173. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys. Since nobody seems to like my idea of locking the bin doors and taking time off. Since we have about 3 billion extra bushels of corn here in the U S. Let's do something with that worthless corn. Harvest it and take it and sell it for cash right out of the field. Just dump that grain on the world market and push corn to $3.00 a bushel or lower. WHY?? Also dump beans. If the price gets to low those guys in S.A won't plant because it will be way below the cost of their production. Maybe even save some rain forest and grasslands. On your end this will mess with the USDA and you can claw back a bunch of income tax money of the I R S because of a lost in income. If you do push corn and beans down. Then the seed, fertilizer, other suppliers are going to have reajust there pricing if they want to sell the farmer any inputs. Then after the grain flood what is in the bin sit on it. Its going to take time for all that grain to move. When they start running low and no one is selling the price or basis will come up to a level that will get sales going again. It is short term pain, but long term again. As the talking Grain Heads have said in the past. That will put some votatilly in the market place. If it is so worthless why hold it. Let the grain buyers hold the worthless stuff. Well I have laid out two different plans. I beginning to like this one better. It solves the problem of those extra billions of bushel of grain. Once they are gone they are gone then we have borough back ending stocks down to 7%-9% the price will raise because of tight supplies again. Any comments from any one out there. How about you Sandhill. Ms.TxT. you were somewhat of than inspiration for this writing. I forgot got to get out of the box and stand on top of it. If you guys can see the logic and the humor in this plan it covers all the bases and brings things back in balance. Sometimes you need a crash. Look what it did for the auto manufacturers.

  174. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys I know, but I am going to say it again if there is no grain sold between now and New Years. What do you think will happen to price??? This spring and summer the supply got tight. Basis was over $2.00 a bushel over the CBOT. The oil people want more money they have a problem or start than other war. What happens? The price goes up and you pay more at the pump. Up here in New York. In 1960 there was 260,000 farms that started to play the produce more and take less game. These days depending on who is counting. There are around 35,000 farms left. About 6500 are dairy farms. The neat thing here is that the cow numbers are the same today as 1960. Also it still takes the same amount of man power to tend the cows. I worker to 44.5 cows. What's different is that these cows produce twice as much milk. What keeps these guys in business. They are BEEF farmers with a byproduce called milk. The by produce called milk only helps with cash flow. The real money is in the beef side of the dairy Think about it. Have you priced milk going out the milk house door. It is $18.50 there about. According to some that is about $3.00 to $5.00 below production cost. Here is the dirty little secret. Most of those cows a worth more as beef than as milk cows. THAT IS SAD. Mine question to all you out there that reads this. Is it going to put any of you out of business if you all hold back as much grain as possible. Remember this summer when there was no real supply and the basis was where it never had been before. I don't care if you got a million bushels in the bin and you got to do something. What sell for $4.00 or sit on it and make the price go up. You can always sell at $4.00 now or lower later. OK look at wheat it has gone up because of just miner shortages. It's gone up a $1.00 a bushel in the last 6 weeks. Well this last summer proved that they could offer more money than the CBOT said corn and beans was worth. So if some of you out there that don't want to join the 200,000 plus of the washouts here in New York. Keep selling grain. Question? So what would happen if the over supply pressure of harvest all went in the bin and sat there to New Years. Remember grain traders have to have grain to trade and handle. They will do what it takes to keep there job going. Here where the rubber really hits the road. Has any of your equipment parts, corn seed or the cost of than acre of good ground come down to match up with the price of corn. Just something to think about from someone that is too stupid to walk and breathe at the same time. I need to go breathe now.

  175. sand plain farmer says:

    TfK and TxT should check out a web post I found. Google "corporate psychopathy -siivola.org." The only solution is regulation, be careful what you wish for.

  176. TxTumbleweed says:

    @Tfk, 10/23 I don't have "feelings", I have opinions based on knowledge and rudimentary grasp of international business and world trade. Your fawning appreciation for Cargill's "family" business model is naive. They are the epitome of duplicitous CRONY CAPITALIST, who have clandestinely lobbied congress (Harkin, Grassley, et al) into this very planting fencerow to fencerow grain policy USDA has undertaken to manipulate American farmers for the last decade. ........................... You opined, "... but once you get pass the crap they did in the articles and it was done with the governments blessing. If they didn't do it someone else would have". .....................Good grief, what is "it"??? Government has NO business "blessing" any multinational corporation's activities in a representative republic's capitalistic economy.................... Have you noticed that there are hardly any lightbulbs not manufactured by GE any more, since Jeff Immelt took his place at the right hand of the POTUS? Is that good? ......................And perhaps the "crap they did" in the articles you refer to were actually the FACTS?!? ................. Did you find the book written by the Mn state official, critically detailing Cargill's devious operating tactics? Probably just more "crap"!?! .......................Cargill possesses the same destructive influence that Wal Mart has visited on small-town America, maybe worse because Cargill buys up their competitors only to starve end users who compete for product in local markets. If you think that has been good for rural America there is nothing left to argue. .....................The leviathan will have you 60% consumed before you awaken to the pain of your own missing extremities. ...........................Fixing what ails the U.S. grain production chain goes much deeper than railing incessantly at your fellow farmers to "SHUT YOUR BINS". I frequently run across good folks who espouse civil disobedience via refusal to remit their income tax to Uncle. I always tell them, "You go ahead. If in ten years you are still in business, I will follow your example. If you are in jail, forget you knew me, I won't be visiting, "

  177. sand plain farmer says:

    I'm wondering if demand destruction has been over estimated. Current grain prices are a bargain compared to a year ago. I expect foreigners to continue stocking up until old crop carry out has to be adjusted down and prices rise as a result.

  178. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well Guys :: Ms TxT send me on a reading assignment. I have done some reading on the Cargill Corp. I know that TxT has reasons for her feelings about Cargill. But once you get pass the crap they did in the articles and it was done with the governments blessing. If they didn't do it someone else would have. I found out that it is a family owned and family run businesses since the 1850's. All the top spots and important postions are family controled. A lot of you farm operators out in farm country could learn a lot from Cargill. Just as Cargill, farmers need to have someone in the business tracking the markets 365. One article said that there Intel gathering was almost as good as the CIA. I my self have always found that knowledge is power and should be cultivated and used. Here is some knowledge that the growers of grain have not realized is that there are not that many of you left. Here is something for all farmers out there to do and think about. In the last 20 years as you were growing your farm in size. Think about how many operations you acquired. How did you acquired these pieces of land. Was it retirement, poor management, or they ran out of money or what other reason. NOW the big question, can you see a neighboring farm that is working and not one of yours down your road. I am not saying it is bad, BUT it puts all of you on a different level that has never been seen before. One other thing while you are out riding around in the combine or truck. THE ANSWER TO LOW GRAIN PRICES THESE DAYS IS. JUST SHUT THE BIN DOORS!! YOU CAN HOLD IT INTO NEXT YEAR. IF PRICES ARE NOT GOING TO SHOW A PROFIT YOU WON'T HAVE TO PLANT MUCH BECAUSE YOU STILL HAVE GRAIN TO SELL. It could mean that next spring it could be fun to farm because your acreage will be less. It will be farming like your dad did. I did that this year and like the credit card commercial said "priceless". No acid gut about grain prices in the toilet.

  179. Glen says:

    I must need to go back school because I do not see how we can have a 5% increase in crop condition in the last 3 weeks harvest was said to have began 6-1/2 weeks ago in indiana it has froze in the north 4 feet of snow in south dakota killed thousands of cattle but no corn or beans pioneer must have super human ability for building genetics I have never seen hard dough and later crops improve any much less 5% but I have only been farming since 1983 I must need to get out more to learn all these new skills PS late corn standing in TX. panhandle and southplains froze last week

  180. TxTumbleweed says:

    @Tfk, 10/14 - China is buying everything that isn't' nailed down - and some things that are, as are all major global scale operators (Bill Gates, Ted Turner et.c), because owning currency, or non-producing substitutes is dangerous in the current financial climate........................... The Chinese have a lot of mouths and not nearly enough hectares of arable land within their borders. Our two banking systems are like a couple of codependent drunks, theirs built on a foundation of toothpicks and ours' having the granite foundation quarried from under it by our current Marxist regime................................. Google "Grain Export Subsidies/Cargill" and read everything that comes up. That should satiate your "thirst" for knowledge for a while. As long as Cargill and to a lesser degree, ADM want all out grain production, that's what we will have, even with prices low. All they need do is rumor-mill a story of global grain shortage due to projected weather patterns (drought), around Dec or Jan and U.S. farmers will sign the dotted line in record number......................... Here in the southern Tx Panhandle, after closing their Plainview, Tx slaughter plant, Cargill has announced the closure of it's Lockney, Tx Feedyard facility just up the road. They own many more similar operations in the area... Over the last decade or so, we have learned the hard way, that what Cargill giveth, Cargill taketh away....................... FYI, it's Ms.TxT

  181. sand plain farmer says:

    The most common complaint this year was that the market ignored the bad weather. 90+M acres of corn let the market relax, knowing there would be enough despite the planting problems. We insured THEM against high prices. The result is some farmers face poor yields AND low prices. Plant just enough corn so the market can worry about the weather,too. Low prices should cure low prices, don't wait a couple of years to get the message. By then easy money might be history along with the good old days.

  182. kurt says:

    I agree 100% with sand plain farmer on 10/14. The market is obviously telling us we supposedly have too much corn so i'm with ya in planting 80 million acres next year. Just the threat of planting that many acres will have the markets begging for more acres and Prices will go back up to levels where we can make a PROFIT. Unfortunately it seems most farmers can't figure this out. We've been brain washed for years now saying we need to strive to get 300 bu corn. Why? Where do you think the price of corn would be if we even came close to this? Keep the carryover under a billion bushels and make more money doing a lot less work. It's not that hard to figure out.

  183. SE Farmer says:

    Really?? Does anyone expect anything other than record intended planted acres, record planted acres, record harvested acres, record yield, record South American crop, record moisture expected for 2014 crop, or is it just me? This gives farmers record confidence.

  184. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well Guys, the time has come. They all told you it was coming. What's that, low prices! Now for the really fun part of all this. Is right now, the crop insurance price finding time. Now I may not be the sharpest stick in the pile. Put corn at $4.50 a bushel and they pay 60%, 70%, or 80%.if you have a lost. A lost like some have had this year. Well that don't look like much of a safety net does it. For some of you guys out there will that cover the rent, seed, fertilizer. The rest of it like a pay check and operating expenses and loans, no problem. You guys don't need to beat up the USDA. They are not viable now or for the next month. So now you guys have dug your self's a hole that's below the waterline. So what is the plan next year. Plant 100 million acres of corn. Mother Nature tryed to idle 10% but I see that worked well. Here's a fun fact. China bought 300,000 acres of farm land in the Ukraine. Why! The need for a stable supply. Price doesn't seem to be a problem. A good steady supply is what they are looking for. This winter they brought our higher price beans when S.A.couldn't load a ship. They will come here and buy U.S. farm land to make sure of steady supply. Well I would like some feed back. Good or bad. Any thoughts Mr.Tumble Weed or anyone else out there that reads this site. One other thing to think about. Back when I was playing farmer and now trying to be one. I used to tell the big farmers. " If you can't to afford to disc it, don't plant if." Well if you have to rely on crop insurance to make your operation go it could be a problem this year.

  185. sand plain farmer says:

    There's still hope for 2013 crop corn prices. Store it then wait for 2014 planting intentions. 80 million acres ought to fix the problem for both crop years. Plant less,make more.

  186. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys have you all noticed something. Am I the only one that's knowns that snow fell and it got deep. No one here has said a word. Not the guys behind the news desk that serve AG. The only ones that did was GMA this morning. They reported heavy cattle loses in a little crawler comment. As for the rest of you who beat up on the USDA haven't said a thing about how bad or good things are where the snow got deep. So let's hear from some of you where the snow fell. How bad is it, or did you miss a major problem. Here is the thing guys. I feel bad for those with the snow. BUT, this could be a Black Swan event. Sorry to say this could be the event that turns the markets back up. The event that puts prices back closer to last years and the year before. BUT before you all head your trucks to town resist. To make this weather rally work you gentleman will need to keep binning up what you have harvested to keep the " pipeline " dry as possible. As a farmer we all know that a FUBAR event can strike at any time. Just look at the Mississippi river this year. For awhile no water to float a barge. Then floods that parked barges and then dry again. This may not be much help to them right now. But one of the months that they figure crop insurance payments is coming up. I think it would be important to anyone that has crop insurance that the market moves up higher. WHY!! Remember they only pay you a percentage of the set market price. If corn goes through at $4.50 and you should pull a loss or a PP. Are you going to make it. Something to pencil into to things. Just that fact alone is enough to make me want to deliver nothing and bin it up and maybe sell around Christmas.

  187. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys the BILLION dollar question today is!! How much crop lost is there where the snow fell this weekend. Did the beans freeze or are they flat to the ground. How did the corn make out. Is it standing or flat. I really feel for those guys. What really sucks is to be this close to harvest and get F.U.B.A.R. like this. I have done beans in February but the was dry snow that came and covered the mud that was to soft to walk. If the beans and corn are standing you are in good shape. If its down better call the adjustor. At this time of year it is like going through a flood, but it is all white and semi solid. If it warms up to fast there could be flooding. Oh well there should be enough water to raise the Mississippi river back up so the barges can move again. Hang in there guys there is always next year.

  188. Mich Bill says:

    This government shut down might be a great thing for producers , because it shuts the mouths of the USDA spewing out there carnage on the markets and hand cuffs the traders who make profits at our demise.We may find that life goes on without them and Agriculture will survive. I hope it stays down at least thru Harvest season.Congress is paying the bills that need to be paid to keep our Country going and it looks like the rest is just waste !

  189. So MN says:

    It looks like Mother Nature will step in and call USDA's bluff again. Heavy rain, hail, wind, & possibly snow. Doesn't look good for beans still in the fields or Corn that has plenty of issues with weak stalks. But don't worry South America is predicted to have a huge crop this coming year.

  190. TxTumbleweed says:

    Seriously, did you guys really think the ethanol boondoggle wouldn't eventually bite us in the arse? We burned up a lot of surplus corn, but the multinationals behind the etanol effort failed to do a competent sales job on the American electorate. Now WE suffer the PR hits that should belong to others. Especially for this Statist regime's alternative energy priority, as they repeatedly tank our grain price in order to keep their cronies viable through the fracking boom. Although I would love to be wrong, I will be shocked if corn rebounds within five years.

  191. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys all that extra corn that is out there is coming up on barges from New Orleans. There is a shortage of barges to haul corn north. That is where all that USDA corn is coming from. Don't you guys realize that freight doesn't cost any $$$$. It's free and corn is pouring up from Brazil. Here is the beautiful thing. You don't have the USDA to kick or them to jerk us around for the next 3 to 4 weeks. Maybe things will come into better balance.

  192. So MN says:

    I call it like I see it. The USDA reports are simply price manipulation. If not then please explain to me why there always seems to be big surprises in their reports.

    • Vafarmer says:

      SHOT THRU THE HEART!!!!!!!! AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!! 10-4 40 Roger Big farmer, little farmer we all get crapped on by USDA an their reports. Daddy always said... Paper take anything you put on it !!!!!!

  193. SE Farmer says:

    I guess this how it works. Feed usage of corn is down because there was no corn and feedlots switched to wheat. But oh wait USDA just happens to find 140 some odd million bushels of 12' crop that farmers just happen to sit on and watch the price go from $7.50 to $4.00. Hungry investors fall right into what they want to happen. Why can't they just be content to let farmers make some money? Why is it their main goal to drive prices to the point where it's not feasible farm again?

  194. TxTumbleweed says:

    In the southern Texas Panhandle feed yard area, grain companies were trucking corn in from downstate since July. When corn irrigation ceased here (8/30 - 9/10), they put out the word that they would offer a limited number of contracts at $2 over Dec futures, with no dockage for corn 30% moisture and below. A few of the neighbors who had some corn that suffered from lack of sufficient irrigation, won the lottery. Does that sound like a corn pipeline loaded with 824 million bu? Not to me!

  195. TxTumbleweed says:

    Bryce, I find your "Bottom line" very interesting. "Plenty of questions remain about supplies of corn as the 2013 crop year begins, with yields and acreage uncertain", especially in light of the fact that you opened today's remarks with this; "....providing a bigger cushion ahead of what appears to be a large crop this fall". You seem to be assuming that at some point the actual numbers will be revealed to us interested parties.. In the game of o-Monopoly NO one ever knows where the real numbers lie. Ask Benny Bernanke. Ahhh, the beauty of Statism!

  196. minn-iowa border says:

    CHS was out of beans and meal in Mankato, MN and Fairmont, MN. AGP was the same in Emmestburg, IA. Lakota Iowa Ethonal Plant paying Plus forty basis if you can bring corn by Friday cause there empty. No beans were being exported last month- cause there weren't any to export. Just where are these extra bushels hiding? They must be storing them in Washington D.C. cause there not in the Midwest! Why do we feed the scrum in D.C. The thought of that extra grain out there has to be kinda odd for end users who are struggling to keep there plants running.

  197. tedd says:

    How can we have the biggest USDA soybean condition "yield" increase of the year when 2/3rds are reported to be dropping leaves???

  198. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys: I see in reading this column and others that there is grain being harvested and it is going in the bin. Keep up the good work. Prices look to be starting to move up. This year it will be backwards. Fill the bins first and then sell the rest. Why???. There is still tightness in all grains. USDA seems to think major corn crop is on its way. Maybe, but they can say that after it is harvested. But here is the the money question!! China is supposed to be importing more this year than last. They also have had major drought and floods so there production is down. They have already have bought half of the amount of soybeans as last year. We just started harvest and they will be looking for more. Right now the Chinese buy about a quarter of are soybean crop. Which I look at as a good thing, but this year I think they will be wanting to buy record amounts of corn, wheat , and beans. So keep binning it up. You' re the ones who grew it. You should be able to make ROI on your crop. Just remember the traders made money when corn was $8.00 and beans were $15.00 - $16.00. If you keep binning, you are all sending a message to the buyers. That there needs to be enough money to cover expenses to buy new equipment and have money left over at the end of the year. Rather than the bills are paid so we get to farm another year. Besides the Mississippi river is very low again and they can't move much grain right now anyway. That river is just about as bad for up and down as the markets.

  199. David says:

    Bryce I take issue with your comment about perfect wheat planting conditions in the plains. I live 30 mi. southeast of Dodge City, Ks., and there is no way I can get wheat up here. There is 0 acres of wheat planted in this area.

  200. Thristy for knownledge says:

    Well guys:: The time is now here. Are you going to sell cheap and take the lost. Or are you going to bin it up and wait for the price to go up. I know that some of you have forward contracts, honor them. For the grain that is still cash. Put it in the bin. Dry up the pipeline. They need your grain very badly. Why,they have already sold half of this years bean crop to China and now have to deliver. Remember how high Basis was a month or two ago. So quite whinning about the USDA and the traders. Only you guys with unsold grain can control the market. No one starved when corn was $8.00. The Chinese were willing to pay $17.49 for beans. Remember history does repeat and if you guys don't dry up the pipeline and raise prices. Well it could be than unmerry Christmas across farm country. THINK ABOUT IT.

    • vafarmer says:

      Thirsty, You get the cookie for the day. You are spot on with your comment. We as farmers should and can control the market for our products, not speculators or the USDA. The major problem as I see it is getting 2 farmers to agree on anything, we all want to raise the best and sell for the most rather than working together so all will have a merry christmas.

  201. tedd says:

    FSA numbers should of course ultimately be correct. USDA, well if you trade in Chicago then that is what you use because you are limited I guess. Seeing how knowledgable processors are bidding historically high basis in a "large carryover" year should say it all. Obviously, there math does not match USDA's and they are not going to get burnt again listening to the bull. We seem to be in a age that regardless of the truth, reports rule no matter how ridiculas. Something tells me come spring, high positive basis will be in play again. Something tells me by the September 2014 report we will have under a billion adjusted carryover for 13-14. Of course we will have 160 plus national yield on 97 million acres projected again also. I would think analyst would be getting tired of being burnt by then but who knows.

  202. sand plain farmer says:

    I stand corrected on FSA data. I'm a Canadian farmer trying to make sense out of things that affect all of us. I drove through the Midwest the end of June and I don't believe that the projections reflect what I saw. I do believe that the USDA's numbers are optimistic. Maybe the USDA considers grain farmers to be the bottom of the food chain, the people who turn grain into groceries matter more to them.

  203. Storm says:

    Sand Plain, the FSA certified acreage numbers would surely reflect the plantings of those who saw opportunity to plant corn because of problems elsewhere. What is troubling to me is that historically NASS acreage numbers versus FSA certified acres which are usually 97% of NASS estimates. Now all of a sudden the FSA certified acres are running 91.7% of NASS estimates. The question is WHY? Does anyone really think that approximately 10% of our corn acres in this day and age are not FSA certified? Especially given the fact that you need FSA certification to get Federal Crop Insurance. Plus FSA acreage numbers are dead on accurate since EVERY acre that is a tillable acre must be certified. Yet NASS numbers rely on farmer surveys where actually FSA tillable acres of 150 acres in a quarter section could be reported as 160 acres by the farmer. IMO, that is where a lot of discrepancy in numbers lies. Plus how many acres does South Dakota really plant to corn. We have massive problems in 3 of the top 4 corn and soybean producing states in our country.

  204. sand plain farmer says:

    We'll never know the correct numbers,acreage or bushels. There appears to be no will to improve statistics gathering. Even if we did,we only know approximate demand through hindsight. As for "storm's" question, we need to ask how many intended soybean acres went to corn instead? Maybe farmers saw the planting problems around Iowa and Minnesota as an opportunity? I'd say that South Dakota planted extra corn that will find a market in Iowa. Market analysts have been saying that farmers are undersold in new crop. This will compress the time frame for sales, and the market will try to profit at our expense., Bryce is probably close to the truth.....even if the USDA's numbers are high, there will still be enough corn to satisfy the market.

  205. Storm says:

    I might add that in doing a bit of research it seems that historically that FSA certified acres are about 97% of NASS estimates. This year FSA certified acres are about 91.4% of NASS estimates. A very large discrepancy which makes the NASS figures that are being used seemingly way off. If the FSA certified acreage was consistent at 97% of NASS figures then NASS would be using a figure of 91.5 million acres planted. Take off around 7 million acres of silage harvested and you are looking at about 84.5 million acres of corn harvested at most. And the FSA certified acres includes failed plantings as well.

  206. Storm says:

    Are the 3.57 million prevent planted corn acres fully reflected in the USDA acreage report for September? Because if they are not deducted from harvested acreage or even the planted acreage yield calculations then it suggests that USDA figures are overstating the crop and a mere 1 million acre reduction is ridiculous because 3.57 million acres were prevent planted. That also does not account for the drown out areas and wet spots that actually have zero yield and must be included in the yield calculations as well. I read in one article that official FSA corn planted and failed acres totaled about 88 million acres as of August 1st. That indicates a wide disparity between the "intended" planted acres and actual acres reported to FSA. In the computer age with instant information we should be able to use the official FSA figures. Does anyone honestly think that large producers did not have their acres certified by the FSA? How many actual acres would not be included? This fall should be interesting. Just wondering how FSA can have only 88 million acres certified as planted to corn yet planting estimates remain at 97 million acres and harvested acres are figured to be 89 million acres for grain production.

  207. kurt says:

    Usda increases the corn yield in this last report after reporting for weeks now that the crop ratings have been declining. Did the crop really deteriorate like they've been saying or not? Do they not know or read the information they put out every week? Say one thing but report another? This report (like most) goes to show how inept and what an embarrassment the usda has become.

  208. SE Farmer says:

    This administration wants china and every other country that are our so called allies to be able to buy corn at $3 bu, beans at $8 and wheat at $4 bu so we don't lose our market share of exports in the global quest to feed the world. Can't Wall Street figure out why exports are so ahead of schedule. They know the longer they wait eventually will cost them more. You can't hardly give wheat away here in southeast because they are holding their hats on record corn. They did this two years ago and ended up with a plus $2.25 basis. Got a neighbor needing bin space for corn and the best they could do was $3.50 bu for wheat. I hope farmers won't forget these elevators that are stealing wheat. Karma is a B(:&$;! We all need to grow conceptual corn!

  209. TxTumbleweed says:

    @ Storm - "It really makes no sense". It's according to one's point of view. The regime has to keep their ethanol lobbyists crony clients in cheap corn. This is how Fascist regimes gut private ownership of property, for the "benefit" of the "collective". See Kulaks, post 1917 Russian Revolution. Russians suffered food lines clear into the 1980s and in many ways are still economically retarded from the effects of such anti-capitalist ideas. Hang on tight boys, I reckon we're in for the ride of our lives, for at least the next 4 to 5 years.

  210. Storm says:

    Amazing. The 9th driest July in the last 141 years followed by the 7th driest August in the last 141 years will result in 162 bpa corn yield in Iowa and over 40 bpa bean yield in Iowa. We don't need rain to make a crop evidently. July and August 2013 appears to be even drier than 2012 and hits the crop at even more vulnerable times in the crop maturity process due to late plantings. It really makes no sense. And the prevented planted acres will yield those amounts as well. Amazing that those acres were not subtracted from the harvested acres in these latest estimates. Why don't they consider those in making these estimates? Add in the drown out spots and the ground that was planted in wet conditions and there is no way we can have those type of yields contrasted with last year which was planted in perfect conditions with perfect stands and no drown out areas and was physically mature and harvesting by September 1st.

  211. minn-iowa border says:

    Looks like another year of positive basis, already +5 for fall delivery in southern mn, the end users are gonna find out that were are not gonna sell our blood sweat and tears for a 5 dollar per acre profit, they need to wake up in D.C. and Chicago.

  212. So MN says:

    USDA blah blah blah.... We now have to trade the numbers they dealt us blah blah blah Fill up your bins and lock the doors boys. If we don't sell they will be begging for grain. The pipeline is now empty. Let the end users run out and let the bidding wars begin.

  213. tedd says:

    These are all reasons why I would like to see Farm Futures do producer surveys a few days before the USDA production reports. If they end up with a more accurate track record in the long run than maybe we could finally move the trade to a reliable source. With as easy as it is to pass information, there is no reason for final yields to be such a mystery and late coming.

  214. kurt says:

    We all know the usda report will more than likely be filled with a bunch of BS like they usually are. I like most farmers don't have a clue what the beans are going to yield. Corn is very variable. So why would the usda know? How much have the crops deteriorated since they did their survey? Even if they know the bean yield will be under 40 bpa, they will more than likely not let that out this early. I should know, my neighbor used to work for the usda on these reports and he said they make the numbers work however they want them to. We as farmers know the bean yield is under 40 bpa but getting the usda to admit it is a whole different game. It must be a bitter pill for them to swallow since they said we were going to produce a record bean crop this year and with very little rain in August and so far in September not to mention the record heat, looks like were gonna come up short once again.

  215. So MN says:

    Same here with the beans. Looked like 50 to 55 bu/acre 2 weeks ago. Now hoping for at least 45 bu/acre average. Corn is all over the map for yield. Corn planted before the 15th of May looks good but kernel size is going to lower yield prospects. Yield based on kernel count alone is around 175 to 180 bu/acre. Corn planted the end of May yield looks to be very disappointing 130 to 150 bu/acre.

  216. tedd says:

    4 weeks ago in Indiana, I would have said 60 plus bushel beans. Today I'm hoping to hang onto 45. Profarmer tour held Indiana to one of the highest bean yields at that time. If my good Indiana beans with the highest pod counts are 45 or less, final national yield is definately under 40 which means we are out of beans again. Surely, if USDA says 40 plus tomorrow it will be discounted as way off. I won't hold my breath.

  217. Bryce says:

    The difference in the headlines is the difference between night and day in the market, Glen.

  218. sand plain farmer says:

    Dec corn net short 138,000 contracts.If you'd like to help the speculators get out with their shirts on,just sell your corn off the combine.

  219. Storm says:

    Bottom line is that the crop is suffering big time in the top producing states with little relief in sight. Record production in places like Louisiana, Virginia and these states that raise very little corn don't have a significant impact on production. The bottom line is that the top 4 producing states raise about Half of our Crop. They are hurting. Seeing lots of corn being chopped that was planned on being harvested for grain. Beans are drying up in areas that do not even have light soil. Final production numbers should be interesting.

  220. Glen says:

    I find the home page headlines confusing today Bryce says heat wave is raising more concerns and Paul says cooler and chance of rain dampens market,this looks odd to me right next each other on the same day,but this is a futures market right.kind of like 13 bil. is about the same as 14 bil.

  221. tedd says:

    I could smart off all day about production. The thing is now hopefully market talkers get it.

  222. sand plain farmer says:

    Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the USDA's number. I suggest that the USDA has a mandate to protect international market share for American grain.The end justifies the means.Publish a number that leaves buyers with an attractive profit margin.Farmers get a pay check.

  223. Bryce says:

    Our 13.36 bil bu projection is for the Sept. 12 report. USDA isn't likely to change its harvested acres assumption now. If you want a range of potential production assumptions, check out the weekly corn review. I change my tables every week as the data changes.

  224. sand plain farmer says:

    The Pro Farmer tour emphasized that they were forecasting yield potential assuming normal weather.This is not normal weather.Farm Futures is still hanging on to 13.36B bushels for some unexplained reason.The market is waiting for the USDA,who still haven't corrected the planted acres data.Hopeless.

  225. kurt says:

    Looking more and more like mother nature is helping out with "idle 10" if not more. I wonder what the usda and all these so called experts are thinking now that said after having a bad drought last year, that this was the year we were going to have record yields? We couldn't possibly have another year of sub-par yields, the odds are really against that. Looks like the big yields the usda and these so called experts predicted are going to come up short again. I guess there's always next year for them. Don't forget these same people are going to tell us how many acres SA is going to plant and the record yields there going to have. For as wrong these people have been over the last few years if not more, the traders and funds continue to believe whatever the usda says. It's no wonder we have such big swings in the markets. We wouldn't have such big swings in price if the usda would quit telling everyone were going to produce a record crop every year only to come up short.

  226. SE Farmer says:

    I tell you us as farmers should just quit planting anything and become paper farmers. We could make more money buying and selling this see saw market. They drive the market up one day and sell off the next day. I believe the overnight trading on monday through today is probably a .75-.80/ bushel swing. We could all fill out surveys that say we have 100,000 bushels of conceptual corn and just keep buying and selling our make believe corn. Just think guys, no more worrying about rain, drought, weeds, insects and just sit back and farm our hearts content in front a computer monitor.

  227. Mich Bill says:

    We have had 5 in of rain here in mid Michigan here in the last week should be plenty enough to finish this crop off for the year.we were very dry like the rest of the mid west before this, it will come for the rest but maybe to late.

  228. Storm says:

    In Iowa the crop is dying due to excessive heat and lack of moisture. From Des Moines to northern Iowa on our drive home, and the crop is shrinking rapidly. The extremely high temperatures and lack of rain have sapped the potential out of this crop here in Iowa. Looks much worse than last year. Ear count will be high.......but there will be next to nothing on those ears. The corn ears and soybean pods have withered on the plants.

  229. tedd says:

    The problem with the markets wait and hope " or assume" the best is it ends up hurting everyone "producers and users" in the end. We should have been moderately higher all growing season due to all of the known problems. Now we will " or should" explode higher because reality is hitting. That is not good for any part of the industry. It seems our new way is to sell it way to cheap or so high it kills demand. If we would stop going into each season pretending we will produce record crops each year, it would be a start. No matter the planting dates and weather the market and most advisors use ridiculas assumptions.

  230. sand plain farmer says:

    The marketing people know that yields are falling.They knew that crops were planted late,in mud.They know that much of the prevented-acres were on prime land.They know that the "record yield" corn in Ohio represents 4 percent of the national crop.They know that farmers have been reluctant sellers of new crop and the market is nervous.They don't have much time left before the yield monitors confirm their fears. China looks smart as ever.They've been buying early and often.

  231. tedd says:

    What your seeing is not maturity turning but early death. Beans in pods are not of size yet where they are turning yellow. Beans will be over 3000 seeds per pound in those areas instead of 2500. That's close to 20 percent yield reduction where the beans still form but not counting the extra due to pod abortion. Corn is not black layer yet and dying with some ears falling over breaking the shanks. Same death effects and yield reduction as frost. I listen to all the analyst and traders trying to figure out what this weather will mean to final yield and saying we will not know until after harvest. If the trade would ask the producers who have years of experience with this it would not be such a mystery. Does a person wait for death if he thinks he has cancer or go ask a doctor?

  232. Bryce says:

    Those big early harvest premiums will pay for a lot of propane! I was surprised at how the fields have turned on the drive home from the Farm Progress Show, in less than a week.

  233. yogi says:

    Sept corn will be interesting, with end users trying to meet their needs, and farmers wondering how soon they can get into the fields. Already Ray Jenkins is saying that they will make it hard for farmers NOT to sell 25% moisture corn, saying they will almost pay them not to dry it. It's nice to see that demand, especially at harvest time. Wonder if the market will respond. Scott County Eastern Iowa.

  234. So MN says:

    Damage is already being done from the heat today. Beans and corn wilting on the hills and light soils.

  235. tedd says:

    Bryce, sounds good. All eyes were on the Pro Farmer tour. If your producer survey materializes (which appears it was the earliest and most accurate to date) than maybe all eyes can be on yours at an earlier date every year. Also, just as Pro Farmer warned, the good crops are currently deteriating rapidly. Even my very good Indiana corn and beans to a larger extent, are loosing potential by the day without rain. I really think a survey of producers just before the USDA October report will be another eye opener. Especially if the late planted areas receive a frost by then. True, accurate information can be brought to light long before the March USDA report.

  236. Bryce says:

    Tedd I would love to do surveys every month. Unfortunately, farmers are like everyone else -- they get a lot of email, and get bugged if they hear from us too often. We currently do three surveys a year. We have added an additional one at times in the past, and will likely consider this in the future, too.

  237. tedd says:

    Observation. I read this site and others to get different takes on the markets. The Pro Farmer tour findings of late crops seems to be of a surprise to all marketing advisors. One market advisor, on the radio, just now knows what growing dergree units are and how that effects the crop. He seemed surprised by this! Farm Futures survey of farmers is going to be more accurate because...well it is a survey of actual producers. Producers voices are not listened to or trusted for some reason. Producers have warned of the obsticles for months but have been dismissed. There has to be a way of correcting this. Can a survey of producers be done more than once a year to get more of the real information out?

  238. Bryce says:

    Kurt, you're correct. I've analyzed all the data USDA has put out this going back to 2007 and they indeed do not adjust their planted acreage to reflected the prevented acres in this report. This is not new! But the data supports the lower harvested acreage reported in our survey. That's the big take away. Focus on the harvested acres now and let the planted number go. Railing against USDA math will only give you heartburn.

  239. tedd says:

    With current conditions and prior, I don't think I would use statements like " low ball". It is simply amazing how USDA comes out with unreachable acres and yield in March and all spectators gobble it up. Of course, as reality happens it falls through. Yet those same spectators seem to not believe the truth when it actually is proven, in real time. Sad in deed for all.

  240. kurt says:

    FSA comes out and announces the prevent acres on corn, beans, and wheat and the market acts "surprised" with this. Really? Farmers and crop insurance agencies have known about this for months now. I've had several sources tell me that the usda will NOT use these numbers in future reports. Instead they might cut harvested acres. I know if I didn't "plant" a field I would not have anything to harvest on it either. Is it really that hard for the usda to tell the truth or are they trying to hide something? What's the point of farmers certifying acres if the usda is knowingly not going to use them because it's not in their favor? Now the usda will have to either cut exports or come up with some BS numbers to balance the books and make the bottom line look like how they want it to look. Can't wait to see how they spin this one.

  241. Bryce says:

    A few years ago China cancelled a whole lot of soybean purchases and caused an uproar. They learned their lesson. Sales are still cancelled, but there's no fuss from the sellers. They've learned to work out the deals for the most part. This year, of course, there are buyers for the soybeans. And there may be other hedges in place that allow the deals to be washed out or rolled to the next year. Brazil ran into the same problem this year with its logistics problems, and they're learning their end of the lesson. Nobody's walking away from a deal, because these relationships are too important. How USDA handles the transitions between old and new crop remains debatable. As concerns their estimates of feed usage, they readily state that some new crop will be fed during the old crop year. The stocks report is supposed to differential between old and new crop -- at least, they say they ask the question. Are the answers accurate on Sept. 1? Accounting systems at elevators likely vary. Most probably have a good idea, others not so much. But counting corn is a lot more tricky than counting the number of cars GM produced last month, how many they sold and how many are sitting on the factory lot.

  242. SE Farmer says:

    Bryce- Are other countries that cancel contracts penalized or have to pay to cancel, or is it just frowned upon. It seems to me that they have their cake and eat it too. Also, do you think the USDA counts early harvested corn and sold under July, is counted as old crop, especially with down numbers last year. And then hope for a bumper crop so the numbers get lost and can't be verified.

  243. Bryce says:

    I'd still recommend not making risk management decision based on unverifiable comments on message boards. That's why we do our own, independent surveys, and put them out before the USDA reports. Thanks again to the 1,350 farmers who responded with accurate data that appears to be confirmed by the certified acreage report.

  244. tedd says:

    News today on prevent plant is interesting. Looking back on the anadotal comments from farmers 5 weeks ago seems to have some merit after all. Just sayin

  245. So MN says:

    Started scouting fields yesterday for yield potential. I was surprised by how uneven the corn was. Some ears starting to dent and some plants just pollinating in the same field. Yields look to be about 10% to 15% below last year for both corn and soybeans. The cool weather helped relieve dryness stress but delayed crop development. The later planted beans are just starting to set pods. If we get a frost in early September it won't be good.

  246. Joseph Paniello says:

    While researching the corn futures market, we started seeing some interesting stories success, major trades gone bad, famed traders and analysts – but was of the most interest to us was the stories of corruption. One of the most notable we came across was well documented by the Encyclopedia of Chicago on the efforts of Philip D. Armour back in 1878 to “corner” the market. He successfully built some of the largest grain elevators in an effort to buy up and control the entire marketplace. This would not only ensure him of profits via amount fixing, but also control his cost of feed for his livestock business. Estimates had immediate profits of around $500,000 – but it was short-lived (2 months). Armour then went on to break other “corner” attempts by other people by utilizing his massive storage space.

  247. Bryce says:

    Our corn estimate of 13.485 billion is based on yields of 155.9 bpa, harvested acres of 86.5 million and planted acreage of 96.1 million. Take 3.5 million acres off that and you knock 545 million off production if ratio of planted/harvested stays the same. Estimating freeze damage is really impossible. People talk about 600 million bushels lower production if widespread (more than IA/MN), but I think that's SWAG. My guess is we'd lose some yield, but most of the damage would be in quality. Market would rally, but gains would not be as explosive as many are hoping for. Only year I can remember when freeze really was an issue was 1974, and we were hit by two of them. The first was in the first week of Sept., the second one later in the month. Yields based on crop ratings compare final production/end of season ratings to current ratings.

  248. thomas in kentucky of msn.com says:

    Bryce, is your 13 billion plus for corn based on the USDA 97 million acres + planted guess? If so what would your guess be if the acres planted come in around 93 million.

  249. tedd says:

    Another Question for Bryce. In your opinion, how much will the markets react if Iowa, Minnesota and the like recieve a 2 week early hard frost/freeze that does stop the growing season? Will it be a major game change or minor do to the high yield ethusiasm? How long will it take for the market to react or see the full scope of an event?

  250. tedd says:

    Question for Bryce. Does the crop condition score you use calculate for what the August report will say, or what USDA final yield should say? If all conditions stay the same.

  251. tedd says:

    To add to the last comment. Looks like it just happened again in NW Iowa. Apparently the radar showed some rain there this morning which did not actually accure by my recent readings. I can never recall a year when conditions in Iowa did not matter as much as this one. Maybe Rhode Island corn will make up for it.

  252. SE Farmer says:

    One thing that I have noticed lately. I have been watching the forecast for the 6-10 and the 8-14 for the past four weeks. These models have been dramatically off on the precipitation amounts. Most of the areas that call for 1-3 inches of rain are only receiving 1/4" or less. Headlines one day "Beneficial Rains forecast for Corn Belt"! Small footnote next day "rains further south and less than expected". Headlines next day "COOLER TEMPS AND EXPECTED MOISTURE LEAD WAY FOR HUGE CROP" It's amazing how this works and makes you wonder if weather people are traders by night.

  253. So MN says:

    There has been a significant number of acres in Southern Minnesota unplanted because of the wet weather patterns this spring and early summer. Agronomists say the current estimates in southeastern Minnesota project 30 percent of tillable acres have not been planted and contain many weeds. http://www.keyc.com/story/22971689/more-weeds

  254. So MN says:

    Its sounds like the crop tour is finding issues with the crops. Small ears and kernel counts in corn and beans that still are showing dirt between the rows at the end of July. I guess the cool weather isn't producing the bumper crop we keep hearing about. Corn here is pollinating OK, but with all the cool days it will be a late harvest and if heat returns without rain filling the ears will become an issue. The beans have actually shrank the last week I guess they are running out of moisture.

  255. tedd says:

    10:48 AM comment is the unspoken or unaccepted reality so far. Markets and analyst are so caught up in this cooler weather they are missing the big point. With a very late north crop it takes Growing Degrees to even come close to maturing that crop. Futures mean just that, but it seems like today's headline is cool weather along with dry is ok. Dry is dry, and cool weather on late planted crops is not ok for maturity. Saying cool dry weather is ok on late planted crops is like saying cancer is ok if it doesn't require radiation.

  256. Mich Bill says:

    Been so cold here in Michigan mid to low 60s during the day and mid 40s at night almost need your furnace on and rain,, a waisted week for GDDays. if it stays like this for long we could be looking at a frost before Labor Day and that would not be good.The crops here look good so far, but late planted beans are not going to make much..

  257. kurt says:

    To the 7/24 comment, since your not a farmer but follow the grain markets I'm sure you've figured it out that it's a corrupt, manipulated market. Who caused the corn market to go to 8 dollars? The "funds" did not the farmer. Maybe you should ask them why the market went to 8 dollars. The next time you comment on something like this, at least try and know what your talking about. The comment from the Scott County Eastern Iowa is exactly right. Don't bite the hand that feeds you.

  258. tedd says:

    Got back Wednesday from Indiana to South Dakota round trip. Took 90 out and 80 back. 1/2 of Indiana has great crops (central). North and south struggled with planting late and replanting. Wisconsin was burning up and losing bushels by the day on corn and beans were late. Minnesota, along 90 had 150 miles of partial (est. 25%) prevent plant. Beans were short and need a long, long time to mature. I estimated the 85-90 day planted corn (due to seed signs) needed 1.5 to 2 weeks to throw a tassel. Obviously the corn that was planted, happened in a few days of June. Green and pretty?... yes... late and getting dry?... yes. South Dakota from what I seen (mid-southeast), has a good crop coming. Of course, most acres were not corn. You get to mid SD and they plant about 10-12 thousand of corn to keep it surviving. So good for them, they have green, sparse rangeland, late planted sunflowers, all spring wheat (due to winter wheat not germinating), and some good looking corn planted at 10-12 thousand for silage. To be fair, east south SD has better land and good crops currently, just need a rain soon. Coming back east on 80, Iowa and Illinois on 80 looks ok. I say ok because many beans are late and the whole state on 80 needs a rain soon. Everything along 80 needs a good rain soon (Iowa, Ill.). Corn is pollinating and starting to show major stress in areas. Some areas along 80 are severe currently (high ground brown). Interstate 90 and 80 are pretty much what I seen. I realize there was much worse, and better to see. I guess what I realized was, if you were one who never planted a kernal of corn, and took care of that kernal to maturity, you would say all is "generally" ok on the crops planted driving around. If you are one who has planted a kernal and seen it to maturity for several years, you would say we have a long way to go. Late planted crops are abundant this year. A very late frost-freeze north, and maybe...a midwest weekly good rainfall starting now and lasting for 6 weeks, and maybe...So, good rainfall for 6 weeks and a much later frost than normal, and huge bushels ahead. Fellow producers, take it from there.

  259. yogi says:

    The big dip in the market was just a blip on the radar screen. As noted above, and by others, weather plays the final card. In addition, the fact that basis collapsed and we are sending grain up river from down south only confirms that we are robbing from new crop to cover old crop, which still doesn't help new crop carryover down the road. USDA did the same thing the last few years with their figures. Regarding 7/24 3:56 comment: Irrigation costs money, which raises input costs, as well as some areas have water restrictions which will only become more prevalent down the road. I understand your point about other areas producing globally, but again weather is not perfect for every country to grow abundant crops every year. The other question is why when gasoline goes from $2 a gallon to over $4 a gallon everyone just continues to fill up but when corn goes from $3.50 to $7.00( $8 was the exception) you think it is a windfall? I would suggest that fertilizer and seed costs have doubled also, as well as land rents. The only windfall to be made here is the traders and speculators riding the waves. Scott County Eastern Iowa farmer

  260. D. Olson says:

    I am not a farmer, but follow the grain markets every year. The comments below do not reflect what the 8 dollar corn has done on a global scale, my opinion. Here in the Mid-Atlantic, there are new irigation booms on 30% of the fields. I know the same has happened in most grain growing areas of the country. Other regions of the world are growing more corn due to the windfall pricing the past 4 years and I believe we will see some dissapointing export numbers that what we are accustomed. 3.70 is my guess for the low on corn this year due to increased GLOBAL supply.

  261. Willie Vogt says:

    Hello - due to some challenges with comments on this site, we've had to make a change. To make a comment you now must Register for FarmFutures.com - We welcome your comments, and it's easy to comment once you're logged in. The system also keeps you logged in after you register. You'll find the REGISTER button at the top right of this page. Thanks for your patience, we appreciate solid, informative input on this page. Hopefully this extra step won't inconvenience you too much. - Willie Vogt, Editorial Director

  262. Anonymous says:

    we did not idle 10.Now we are paying the price

  263. Anonymous says:

    They say "rain makes grain". Most of the major grain producing area of the nation hasn't had any substantial amount of rain for a month now. We began the season 21 inches below normal, picked up 8 inches in April thru mid June. That mostly came in large amounts in a short period of time with most of it running off the surface. Now we are trying to produce a crop short 13 inches of rainfall, no sub soil suroplus and the forecasters are calling for little or no rain for this area over the next 8-14 days. Result: markets fall apart. Makes you wonder what will happen when the real report comes out,

  264. Willie Vogt says:

    We are screening emails/comments as fast as we can. We're also working on a different system to keep the spam out - we'd also like a little more civility from commenters given that this volatile year is messing up everyone's nerves. Thanks for your comments - Willie Vogt, editorial director.

  265. Anonymous says:

    All this rain in the forecast, I'd like to see it in my gauge for a change. Crops losing yield daily. Central MN.

  266. Anonymous says:

    One has to wonder where the corn will come from as the next 14 day outlook for rain by passes nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois? No state wide rains have fallen here in Iowa since June 22. the corn crop is shrinking daily under the heat and lack of moisture. Thank God for insurance but it doesn't help fill the bins, feed the livestock or keep ethanol flowing.

  267. Anonymous says:

    I support the comment about screening irrelevant Emails. They are ignorant and obnoxious. Professionalism is like a chain that is only as strong as its weakest link.

  268. Anonymous says:

    You guys at FF really need to screen these emails out. your going to let them destroy our FF site.

  269. Anonymous says:

    according to the 2007 farm census, there are 8.6 million irrigated acres in Nebraska and growing, by some estimates, at a rate of 174,000 new acres a year.

  270. Anonymous says:

    Bryce hang in there my friend, you should be telling everyone here if they dont like whats going on to put the crop in the bin and leave it there until there price is obtained. we might be storing it for years but what the heck its always going to be worth something.

  271. Anonymous says:

    To the 4:14 comment Since Obummer became president has the country come together or have we become more divided? Has the deficit gotten smaller like he promised or bigger? Are things more transparent or not? I do know there are a lot of nut cases out there because after reading your comment your one of them. He's been president now for what seems to be an eternity, at what point do you start taking responsibility for your own actions and quit blaming somebody else. He may not have a vote in the house but he could have prevented it but didn't want to so he could "blame" someone else. No money to keep the White House tours going but just enough to go on a 100 million dollar trip. I'll admit he's a real smooth talker but his leadership skills are about zero.

  272. Anonymous says:

    What % of the irrigated crops in Nebraska make up all the acres that are planted? It's hardly nothing. Hope they have a good crop.

  273. Anonymous says:

    In contrast, irrigated crops in Nebraska look fantastic (some plants on the field edges are pollinating 2 ears) and large areas of Texas received 6 inches of soaking rain since Sunday.

  274. Anonymous says:

    Hey 7/18 @ 4:14, since you've made all the phone calls why don't you share with us the "true" data? I'm sure you had no trouble getting info from seed and insurance companies. The FSA numbers may be incomplete, however. My appointment to certify acres is 2 weeks from now, which means I'm waiting while 2 weeks worth of other farmers certify. About the sequester....the President can't possibly be to blame as he does not have a vote in the House. That blame belongs to the American Taliba...er,I mean Tea Party.

  275. Anonymous says:

    To: Anonymous @ 7/19/2013, 7:46 AM - Not so much "picking on Bryce" as venting monumental frustration at the numbers games being played with grain markets. We don't work this hard and take this much risk for our health, and since it has become obvious that the regime is taking a multi-pronged approach to exact revenge against those of us who opposed their reelection (didn't you see the after-election polling figures from the hinterlands?), those of us who refuse to give up on practicing whatever crippled form of capitalism is left in America, are being assailed on multiple fronts. " New and improved" EPA regs, Questionable Comprehensive Immigration Reform, but the cherry on top is the regimes repeated use of erroneous data aimed at tanking U.S. grain prices. BTW, your caps key got stuck a third of the way through your rant... Tx Tumbleweed ;)

  276. Anonymous says:

    Well guys, leave Bryce alone. He has than ugly job to do. You all bitched about Mr " the market will do its job". He went away, and nobody really likes Paul. So if you run off Bryce this whole site is going to really suck. So what are you guys doing with your jobs. I bet you are selling grain at ths offered price. If you guys are going to need more money to stay in business what are you doing about it. Playing the oldest game around. I can sell cheaper than him. Your neighbors will appreciate that when they come to the auction and grab your help. BOYS IF IT IS HALF AS BAD AS I READ HERE. IT'S TIME TO TELL THE BUYERS THERE IS NO SALE UNTIL PRICES IMPROVE. LAST WEEK IN THE BOTOM OF MARYLAND BASIS ON CORN AND BEANS WAS OVER $1.20. Basis on barley was a negative $3.40 cents. THIS TIME THE MARKET IS IN YOUR HANDS. WE ALL FOUND OUT NO ONE WENT HUNGARY AND CHINA WOULD PAY CBOT PRICE FOR BEANS AT $17.49. THIS YEAR CHINA IS SHORT ON EVERYTHING IN GRAIN. WELL SO THE CROPS ARE BAD!! WHAT ARE YOU GUYS GOING TO ABOUT IT. PICK ON BRYCE. PLEASE DON'T TELL ME "CRANKY PANTS SEASON" HAS STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR. IT USUALLY STARTS AFTER THE COMBINES ARE PARKED. GOOD LUCK GUYS

  277. Anonymous says:

    How come farmers only complain when USDA releases numbers that make the prices go down but never complain about the numbers being wrong if the price goes up?

  278. Anonymous says:

    The 6:30 comment is spot on. Make up excuses then tell the people who call you out and you tell them to "feel free to start dialing" or "send me the names of large seed company's and crop adjusters" has been put in a box and can't get out. Sounds like the current administration. Blame someone else because they don't want to find out the real facts.

  279. Anonymous says:

    Typical when someone isn't telling the truth or sharing only part of the information. They start making excuses why they can't get the information that someone calls them out on.

  280. Anonymous says:

    South Central MN corn on light soil is already brown and far enough gone that it won't produce anything. The late planted crops here will not produce this bumper crop that the USDA is predicting.

  281. Anonymous says:

    Hot, windy and 92. Mother nature is trying to idle another 10% on top of the 10% she took from me earlier this spring. Hope all this wet weather the market is pricing in comes to fruition cuz it's starting to get ugly fast. Wonder what Bryce would charge to look at one of his high priced secret models?

  282. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, not sure where you came up with 2000 FSA office's but who caused the sequester? The president. No money to keep some FSA office's open and had to cancel the White House tours but was able to scrounge up a 100 million dollars for his recent trip. Sure makes me proud as a tax payer to see my tax dollars going for a good cause. Seems kind of foolish to pay high dollar for some private forecast or weather model and then tell everybody it's a secret. As far as picking up the phone and start dialing, I've already done that. It's obvious you have not. You want everybody else to do your work for you. Isn't that what you get paid for?

  283. Anonymous says:

    The FSA numbers are logged into the computer. It really wouldn't be much of a trick for USDA to access what has actually been certified Prevented Planted Acres by producers. Those also give Planting Dates so an accurate assessment could be made as to the ACTUAL Acres and Planting Dates. These would also be ACTUAL numbers instead of the Guesstimates from June 1st. Instead we are still using Guesstimates and a system that does not seem to be modernized. It appears that USDA will count the Prevented Planted acres as Planted, according to what I have heard. That is a complete joke. Wonder how many tomatoes I am going to get from my garden which was prevented from being planted.

  284. Anonymous says:

    To the person who is driving from Indiana to South Dakota, if you happen to drive in the SE MN area or NE Iowa, make sure you have plenty of tums with to sooth your upset stomach. A couple of puke bags wouldn't be a bad idea either.

  285. Anonymous says:

    Getting a lot of the weather data costs money and comes from proprietary sources. I try to distill it for you. We pay private services a lot of money, but can't publish their charts or graphs. If you want it, pay for it. As for calling 2,000 FSA offices, feel free to start dialing. Of course, no one may be there due to the sequester, but I'm sure the crop insurance companies will be glad to share their data with you. Good luck! -- Bryce

  286. Anonymous says:

    The 5:41 comment is exactly right. Why is there such a BIG secret in the weather models Bryce looks at? I guess the longer you look you'll find whatever your looking for. It is market manipulation and corruption at it's best. Maybe Bryce or anybody a FF can explain to all it's readers why the usda seems to always be about a month behind in it's reporting? In this day and age where you can find information just about instantly the usda is giving us outdated and inaccurate information every time there's a report. Just like their going to go back and "resurvey" bean acres but not corn acres? Why would they. Their admitting something's not right. I'm sure we'll get the truth after they resurvey. How about checking with the FSA office's to see how many acres got planted and to what. Then call the crop insurance agency's to see how much went to pp. It's not that hard unless your trying to hide something.

  287. Anonymous says:

    Let's look at the USDA numbers. June 1st estimates released in mid July. So we have 6 week old estimated data that is completely outdated and inaccurate due to prevented planting. But we will use those same erroneous numbers for another month to calculate yields. Because that is what we were given. If you believe the numbers aggressively sell the market. Every state had heat warnings in at least one city today......and we are entering pollination time now for the next month.

  288. Anonymous says:

    Are the rains Texas is receiving too late for the corn crop?

  289. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, the problem with the markets is that there corrupt and manipulated. It's nothing more than a casino. Las Vegas on steroids. Millionaire's and Billionaire's trading pieces of paper. The market doesn't have a mind of it's own and do whatever it's wants to. Someone is telling it what to do. Why is there "profit taking" in the market. Someone made some money and pulled it off the table just like at a casino. While you can make money at the casino the longer you play the better chance you'll lose. Why is it that if you want to sign up to buy or sell or buy options they say it's "HIGH RISK"? Who's causing the high risk? Not the farmer. He's already taking a risk when he plants his crop then he's supposed to market it based on what someone behind a desk thinks it's worth?

  290. Anonymous says:

    1/2inch or even 1inch doesn't go very far when it's been this hot and dry even if it's supposed to cool down to the 80's. Crops on lighter soil and on hills are deteriorating fast. Central MN

  291. Anonymous says:

    Bryce,In your opinion,how much does China's GDP affect their grain imports? I'd say that growth of 7% annually is still impressive. Also, do exporters have farmer commitment to deliver on new crop sales?

  292. Anonymous says:

    RE Acres. Folks, there will be no new data on this for almost a month. The market isn't going to trade what ifs or maybes for a month from now. It trades news. That's the way markets are. Just because you think the market should trade differently, don't think it will. If you think there are less than 90 million acres, just take a break. Above average as listed on the 8-14 day charts isn't enough to cause damage. Today's basically was around 5 degrees or so above average. Rain is the big driver. Again, you may feel differently, but this is the way the market works. Unless temperatures are 95+, it don't matter. Also, I look at a lot more maps and analysis that are not public that I can't share with you directly. -- Bryce

  293. Anonymous says:

    It does seem ironic that weather forcast are the big market movers. Forcast are unreliable at best whereas planted acres and planted dates should not be a guess anymore. Still, the big excitement is if weather will add a few bushels or take a few off. The real reporting ought to be on if we have 97 acres of corn or in the 80"s.

  294. Anonymous says:

    Read Bryce Knorr's article today and I am convinced he hasn't looked at the maps he quotes from. The vast majority of the corn belt in the next 8-14 days has above average temperatures and just normal precip. Normal precip shows only a 1/2 inch at best in most areas and in a climate where we needed weekly rains of over an inch, Knorr's analysis is way off base. I live in west central Iowa where we haven't had a drop of rain for a month and we are trying to shoot tassles. Temps are in the 90's and heat index over 100 and they think we will have a good crop with this report?

  295. Anonymous says:

    I will be driving from Indiana to South Dakota the next few days. Curious to see for myself the conditions of this huge crop. Just cancelled a bean offer until I know more. If I see bad stuff, prepare for the farmer anecdotal comments next week.

  296. Anonymous says:

    Not whinning fact.PP all my corn acres in southeast CO.The canal went dry before planting time.I am 46 this the worst hay crop I have ever seen.,But Colorado corn production does not matter.I guess the local feed yard and dairy can get their needs from Brazil.

  297. Anonymous says:

    Some perspective on USDA predictions. In May and June of 2012 the USDA was predicting a 14.8 billion bushel crop and a carryover of around 2 billion bushels. Final crop was around 10.8 billion bushels. This year the USDA is predicting close to a 15 billion bushel crop. The final crop has not been determined. Bottom line is that USDA predicts that growing conditions will be perfect until they actually see the damage done in hindsight. With heat advisories all over the Midwest and a general lack of rain after a wet spring, how well do you think the corn crop is doing considering the lateness of the crop, poor root development, fertilizer leaching, and now a lack of moisture as the corn crop enters pollination. Come September, I look for USDA to be predicting around a 12 billion or so corn crop. Beans maybe 2.7 billion......maybe. Some good crops out there. But just too much late crop and bad crop to be that large. We will see who comes closest.

  298. Anonymous says:

    We can flap our gums all we want.Traders and analysts KNOW that farmers with poor crops are Chicken Little's. The farmers with good crops stay quiet. And if your job is keeping everyone calm, ignorance is bliss.

  299. Anonymous says:

    I am a farmer from Michigan and also a crop insurance agent. PP acres are as high as I have seen them in years, not only corn but soys too. I know Michigan plays a very small role in the grain production but I am here to tell you that the USDA planted acres have to be WAY off. I have not sold any 2013 crop and I hope farmers will hang in there and wait this out. with the prices of inputs around here I have no idea how people are even considering giving in to $4.45 corn. Crops around here are decent, but there were lots of corn fields planted late June "must be no insurance" and is 1 foot tall. If we don't get this rain on Friday we are in trouble. Just giving my 2 cents.

  300. Anonymous says:

    I drove out west for a look for myself,being suspicious of anecdotal internet posts myself. I haven't priced a speck of new crop,and after driving 450 miles and seeing non-stop pale, late crops and bare fields, I'll wait for the combines to roll. Obviously I didn't see everything,driving between destinations,but there had to be more. I have an aunt lives in Missouri,knows a thing or two about farming and she remarked about land too wet to plant. Farmers know that crops planted late,in mud,need near-perfect weather until first frost.That's a Hail Mary. Apparently the funds lost money last year in one of the most memorable bull markets.They're doubling down.I hope they lose their shorts.

  301. Anonymous says:

    some crop scouts reporting that unplanted corn acreage in northeast IA and southern MN could be much worse than the USDA is indicating at the moment. The wet spring and start to the summer could have resulted in up to 2-3 million preventative planted acres according to some sources.

  302. Anonymous says:

    Thanks FARGO for the information. Now lets see if FF is independant enough to follow up. Yes FF that is a call out.

  303. Anonymous says:

    Talked to a Federal Crop Adjuster this morning. The insurance company has hired additional men in the field to handle all of the prevented planting claims. The USDA is counting ALL prevented planting acres as PLANTED. So it shows up in reports as planted acres. Later on, the USDA will make the adjusted in "harvested" acres. So the millions of acres of prevented planting show up as planted, but of course they will yield Zero. And we will not know harvested acres until much, much later. My adjuster said that what most people fail to realize is the wide area the prevented planting area is in. And also the productivity of the areas affected. These areas are not fringe low yielding areas. Instead they are historically our HIGHEST yielding farmground in this country. At the prices we are at right now, there is not as much downside risk as some claim. End users would be wise to price grain at these prices. Producers would be wise to take a wait and see attitude. Federal Crop Insurance target prices have them protected on the downside. With the lack of rain in the forecast plus the lateness of the crop and the likelihood that millions of acres of late planted crop will yield little or nothing, there is a greater likelihood of higher prices from these levels. Markets and outlooks turn on a dime. A little over a year ago in June cash corn was less than $4 per bushel. Less than 8 weeks later it had doubled in price.

  304. Anonymous says:

    I will answer your "whinning" comment. Yes, farmers could do alot to put the screws to the consumer if that was a part of them, but it is not. The guy that produces is usually an independant, non establishment, fair kind of thinker or they would not be doing and fighting what they do. I'm sure most producers would say they just want a fair, realistic, analysis of what production is. If that is your definition of whinning, than you will never understand. If I mess up my production, I blame myself. If I mess up my marketing, I blame myself. All I want is no bullcrap, bogus, la la land reports and analyst gobbling them up like bible because it came from what everyone should realize is a inept source. Independant, fair, thinkers will always feel this way, "whinning" or not.

  305. Anonymous says:

    Well guys I have read the comments back to 7-9. There has been a lot of whinning about PP, bad crops etc. We all have seen the price of gasoline go up at the pump in the last week. Well the war in Syria wasn't good enough so THEY started unrest in Egypt. The price went up because the canal " might close". Well if the canal does close it is for a few days. If they take out a lock or 2 that could be a problem. Those guys know how to raise the price of oil. If you really want the price of your crop to go up. Then I guess the best way is to start talking about binning it up. Start calling bin salesmen about more bin space. If everyone stops selling corn lower $6.00. The pipeline will run out on that Nov.corn. Best to buy some paper and cash in later. JUST REMEMBER YOU ONLY GET TO SELL IT ONCE. You guys have bought the program that was spun for you 2 years ago with someone saying the high corn priced couldn't last and corn would be back to $4.00. Well Guys are you going to make that a realitiy. Or are you going to hold up that 1 st harvest to move the price up. Do you know what it cost you than acre to raise that crop and get you ROI on that crop. I bet that your suppliers got there ROI on every dollar of whatever that was sold to you. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.

  306. Anonymous says:

    Everyone knows the USDA is the most accurate market information we have year in and year out. If it wasn't why would everyone care so much what they said.

  307. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, the way to effectively do away with producers anecdotal comments would to have the staff at Farm Futures follow up on it. I could give you names and numbers but I find it insulting that a producer has to prove what he says to a site that claims to be about farm. I'm not asking you to leap out of the box, just lean a little and see what is out there as far as you can see. A call to Monsanto would be the first to see what seed corn was returned or switched in the north and west?What market share do they have in that area? A call to a large crop insurance company to find out who there head adjuster is for those areas maybe would be the second call. Find out what claims have been reported. No smoke and mirrors or anecdotal about that...is there? With all the heck you are getting you should be anxious to prove the anecdotal producer comments wrong...right?

  308. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, if you noticed the the previous comment said Informa's reports were bearish 99% of the time not always. Why did my local FSA tell me that the usda COUNTS PREVENT ACRES AS PLANTED ACRES until the fall. Why would they do this unless your trying to hide something? Is it that hard to tell the truth about something? It must be when your trying to get something from someone for as cheap as you can.

  309. Anonymous says:

    After 40 years in the business I've learned not to rely on anecdotal comments. Right now, USDA has the only facts available through their weekly crop ratings. We're starting our survey of producers soon. That will provide additional fact-based evidence. I'm no big fan of Informa, but for all you folks that think they're always bearish, they had a very bullish wheat production forecast last week. Of course, they were wrong. -- Bryce

  310. Anonymous says:

    To the comment on 7/13 @ 7:16 your 100% right. My crop adjuster has been in MN, Iowa, Wisconsin and Ill. Not just the 50-100 mile the other comment said. By the way Informa is a bunch of former usda employee's. What the hell do you think their gonna say? Have you checked out their track record lately? They are NEVER too far off from the usda. If you want to keep drinking their Kool-Aid that's up to you. When the blind lead the blind you end up in the ditch. Had I listened to what Informa and the usda said last year I would be broke. They want to get as much grain for as cheap as they can from the farmer so when they have it then it can go a lot higher. Do you really think the usda and Informa are really for the farmer? When Informa has a report on something 99% of the time it's bearish. They work together like a hand in a glove. Wise up.

  311. Anonymous says:

    If a crop insurance agent covered an area within a 25 mile radius,that would be 1963 square miles,or 1.25 million acres.Not all of it would be workable,especially this year.Another point....seed companies always emphasize the benefits of early emergence.Why? There's lots of technical reasons that all lead to higher yields. Also,I noticed on my tour through Wisc and Minn that no one switched their late planted beans to solid seeding.Anyone use a soybean drill anymore?

  312. Anonymous says:

    Analysts see a stalk and think there is an ear. They see a bean plant and think it is full of pods. In normal years you can drive for miles and count the bad fields on one hand. This year you drive for miles and count the good fields on one hand. Lots of acres planted, but also lots of prevent planted acres as well. The crop will not be a record. If you think it will be, then aggressively sell this market on the board. And be prepared to make delivery against the contract. Trade wasaggressively selling $4 or so corn in June last summer. The crystal ball was cracked back then and is cracked now.

  313. Anonymous says:

    Well I guess we will see this winter if your right but I hope you didn't base your whole marketing plan on what he said or she said from an insurance adjuster that has a 50 or 100 mile coverage area. I myself am a firm believer in statistics and probability. And if USDA surveyed that many farmers and 97% of the acres were already planted that is what I will believe. And if the USDA is so wrong why did Informa come out with an estimate that was bigger than USDA's. Since you know something no one else does yet I wonder if your buying new crop corn futures.

  314. Anonymous says:

    To the 3:39 comment, have you talked to the crop insurance company's to see how many acres went to prevent planting? Obviously not. I have and there saying something totally different than the usda. Who's lying then? Are the insurance company's making false claims? I could really care less about what's on which page from the usda. Their constantly making up numbers that don't add up. If the usda said 2+2=3 you would probably believe it. Your talking about the same usda that back in February said we were going to have 160+bu crop this year based on NORMAL weather. What page is that on and how's that been working out so far?

  315. Anonymous says:

    To the "Intended Acres" comment. Did you even read the whole USDA report or are you just mad that prices went down and looking for someone to blame? Page 33 says that of the intended acreage 97% had been planted compared to the 10 year average of 98%. Then later it says on page 39 the standard for error is 1.3% for corn. Statistics don't lie, there could be a million less acres of corn planted but the odds of getting our corn acres coming down to 95 million or less are about the same as me winning the lottery.

  316. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, you want us to send you information from large seed company's and crop adjusters about the lost acres? Isn't that your job? Sounds like you don't believe anything that's being commented on and you only believe the usda. If you really wanted to find out you would do so yourself NOT have anybody else do it for you. Your actually admitting that you have not done your homework to find out how many acres are going to prevent and got planted after the insurance date. Why not? We are supposed to read your comments every morning when your telling us a half baked story? Get out from behind your desk and find out for yourself. Pick up the phone book and call some insurance agency's. Talk to the farmer's in SE MN, NE Iowa, Wisconsin and parts of Ill. You along with the usda were telling us all spring long how far behind we were in planting and now right along with the usda are questioning the planted acres. Were you not reporting the facts then or what? Looks like your drinking the kool-aid from the usda. I thought you were better than that but i guess not. Prices get manipulated enough from the usda when they tell us a half baked story. We as farmers shouldn't get a half baked story from FF. A good journalist would find out information on these lost acres and NOT rely on someone else and report on them ACCURATELY.

  317. Anonymous says:

    The usda is going off of "intended" acres that they thought the farmers would plant NOT WHAT ACTUALLY DID GET PLANTED. The usda did their survey when farmers were still trying to plant. Therefor the usda counted the unplanted acres as planted because we were still trying to plant.

  318. Anonymous says:

    Anyone who knows " large seed companies and crop adjusters" who are saying 5-6 million acres were lost can feel free to send me their names and phone numbers. -- Bryce

  319. Anonymous says:

    Great comment about the information not being verified. But that also would have to make me think we planted at least 97 million acres of corn. Cause why would a farmer that got surveyed by USDA overstate how many acres they planted. They would have nothing to gain by doing that, my thinking would be farmers might error to the low side when surveyed.

  320. Anonymous says:

    I've had an epiphany today.Someone pointed out that farmer "x" had no soybeans until the price reached $16,then he found some.Did the USDA find 400 million bushels of corn in March? I think maybe the commercials "found" that corn. Price dropped like a lead balloon. My point is that the USDA asks for information without verifying. Both sides of the supply/demand equation game the system. Garbage in equals garbage out. Figure things out for yourself and stop blaming a bureaucratic albatross.

  321. Anonymous says:

    I do not know if anyone has noticed but Bryce is quite as far as response to the well thought reality.

  322. Anonymous says:

    To the 8:27 comment I live in MN and we had a half in of rain the other a.m. While it was a blessing to get the rain it was far from an amazing corn maker. A half inch or even 1 inch doesn't go very far when the temperature and humidity are high. You might want to take another crop tour in my area and see how the crops look. They look terrible. While your crops may look good now there not in the bin.

  323. Anonymous says:

    To Sonia Fletcher : Nobody cares about your stupid spell caster. Tell Dr. Musa to cast a spell on the usda and on Washington to start telling the truth.

  324. Anonymous says:

    Where exactly do you live in MN? A few sporadic spots received an inch. Most received a half inch to nothing. Didn't even settle the dust. Radar showed yellow over one of my farms and didn't get a drop. If we miss the rain that is predicted this weekend and the heat arrives the crop will start going backwards fast.

  325. Anonymous says:

    I am in Indiana and yes currently my crops look good. However, my point is, if large seed companies and crop adjusters are saying 5-6 million corn acres did not get planted then that should be considered from the horses mouth. I hear Bryce say maybe a million and a half tops will come off USDA figures and we will still have overproduction. What does the math say for 5-6 million acres? Along with the good corn, Iowa has some very late planted corn that will not be a winner. This is from the state that always pulls out the rest usually. This is not complaining, but rather demanding ag outlets report and investigate something besides listening to a currupt or inept USDA. Corn and bean basis proves their story is incorrect. If you feel current prices are a winner for you than price by all means. You will probably be right because no outlet will report otherwise. I myself, have relunctantly caved on some because no outlet will report on anything but farm employees or next generation farming or how to get your planter ready for spring. Defending poor or no reporting on what matters is not helping the cause to improve the information the traders hear. How can a ag outlet source discount the 5-6 million acres that is known by seed companies and crop adjusters without even a few phone calls made by a staff?

  326. Anonymous says:

    @minnesotan farm tour, great idea. wish more guys were as proactive as you. I keep telling guys in my area that the country is going to produce some corn and had better take some risk off the table.

  327. Anonymous says:

    If I were anyone complaining I would worry about playing this market and getting grain for the next two years marketed.

  328. Anonymous says:

    I was on a crop tour two weeks ago. I am a farmer. I have went on tours the past 5 years. Last year during the tour I told my wife we are not selling anything because the crop looks terrible around the nation. This year on our tour there were spots that were bad but as a whole the nation looks very good. Some of you don't ever leave your 30 mile circle and rely on what other people say. Maybe you should spend a couple hundred dollars on gas and some hotel rooms and tour the country with your wife. You will be amazed how good things look. We just got an inch of rain last night across MN that was an amazing corn maker. I would believe we are going to see tassels in the next two weeks. Oh, and when we got back from our trip we made sales before the report on that friday when it took a tumble two weeks ago.

  329. Anonymous says:

    2:51, Unfortunately you will be wrong. Your right, but will be wrong. As long as no one will report the truth, you will loose. You loose a grand or so, I as a producer loose 100 grand or so. Make no mistake, a 100 grand to me is just as much as you. I have production and replacement cost. Along with spurring the ag economy which many outside of enjoy. Unfortunately, none of which matters when outlets will not research and report the truth.

  330. Anonymous says:

    Remember the story during the sub-prime meltdown, brokers were pushing garbage on gullible investors. Their emails acknowledged that it was garbage BUT everybody was doing it and they were getting rich. It's the culture of greed and they got away with it. I don't believe that the CME gang actually believe the USDA reports,but they exploit them. Considering the millions of dollars at risk surely they must do some scouting,make some phone calls,etc..Knowledge is power.You can see a lot from a Cessna in an hour,maybe costs a couple hundred dollars.

  331. Anonymous says:

    I met with my crop insurance agent today and he told me exactly what the 12:23 pm comment is saying about the acres that DID NOT get planted and went for pp and a LOT of acres that got planted AFTER the insurance date. It's very obvious the usda is lying about the acres but yet most analysis will still kiss their ass and believe whatever they say. Their either that stupid or they don't have the guts to stand up for what's right and call the usda out. Wonder how you can sleep at night when you know your deliberating lying and cheating someone?

  332. Anonymous says:

    12:23:00, i'm no farmer but i trade commodities and when the 700 strike calls on December corn went below 3 cents on the totally bogus USDA acreage forecast for corn i loaded up because my new trading strategy is to assume that everything i see on "state-run media" is just propaganda to further the interests of the people who control everything. buying those cheap calls seemed like the safest way to bet that the market was wrong, and time decay on them is insignificant. i hope to still own some of them when they get near to in the money.

  333. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, With you being "Farm" Futures and I being a producer their has to be some common ground for the better good of what we both represent. I have crop insurance agents and Monsanto representatives stating there are at least 5-6 million intentional corn acres that did not get planted. These acres are PP or very, very late beans that are still not planted. I have heard this from now 5 seperate higher representatives. As a producer, I cannot dismiss this information and have to use it in my marketing plans. All the while knowing USDA will not admit this until at least March if ever. This is just the PP or very late (if ever) planted beans mind you. Not the late planted corn in the north that is under a foot tall and the yellow beans currently emerging as of July 9. Their has to be a better outlet than the USDA and analyst regergatating the bogus reports. Old crop corn and bean basis is proving this right now. If I as a lonely producer is privey to this information than why can't a staff at "Farm" Futures be and report as such. A disclaimer can follow the article as whatever, but any information outlets that start with "Farm", "Producer", "Ag", owe this to what they claim to represent. Why is it so hard to report the investigated truth and give traders something else beside gimmied numbers by these outlets?

  334. Anonymous says:

    45.3 bpa average on beans ??!!. Thats ridiculous ..Just a heads up but there are thousands , maybe millions,of LATE planted beans with NO chance of seeing that yeild. Anybody who actually gets there hands dirty toiling in the dirt knows that. Get real . Can't wait for the crop tour this year, maybe the truth will be told than.

  335. Anonymous says:

    We are now operating in a CBOT no-man's land of pure fantasy. I wonder how the government number crunchers can keep a straight face. Makes you wonder if their audacity has any bounds, or will corn be below $4 by fall. I wonder why more analyst aren't screaming from the mountain tops to give farmers the true grain stocks and acreage numbers. There are a few who are speaking out, warning that USDA's numbers are a fairy tale, but they are hard to find, and even those seem to have resigned themselves to accept the new rules of the fixed "game". This is pure Fascism on display.

  336. Anonymous says:

    South Central MN 92 today and corn starting to curl on the hills and sandy spots. Beans that were mudded in or planted late look terrible. I'm sure that the crop ratings numbers will be up again tomorrow. Fields on one side of the road look great and on the other side look horrendous. Guess which side of the road is being reported.

  337. Anonymous says:

    As a futures trader this market is rigged by the likes of Goldman and J.P Morgan. The FED printing press is going full speed ahead and real hard assets are falling? Totally rigged! Don't worry farmers you are all going to be rich beyond your wildest imagination when this Ponzi comes crashing down you all will be the winners.

  338. Anonymous says:

    The 10:19 pm comment is 100% correct. The usda told us all spring long we were way behind in planting progress and acres were not being planted but then in the report they told us a whole different story. Say one thing and do another. After talking to my crop adjuster who's working with thousand's of claims with prevent planting or very late planted crops, I'll believe the crop insurance reports before I'll believe the usda.

  339. Anonymous says:

    Mother Nature will have the final say with what we end up with for a crop. We are a long way from having the record crop that the USDA is predicting. Preventive planting, mudded in, drowned out spots, late plantings, etc... Last years predictions didn't come to fruition either with near perfect planting conditions and a record planting pace. Even the crop the USDA said we ended up with is not believable.... record basis levels... Time will tell. What if a heat dome forms over the Midwest during corn pollination this year or we get an early frost? How will they manipulate the numbers then?

  340. Anonymous says:

    Nobody wants to see anyone struggle but when I raised livestock nobody cared if I made any money. They said you should have been covering your feed needs when the prices were a lot cheaper. Who causes the prices to go up or down any way? Not the farmers. The market is corrupt and manipulated by the usda. Prices are going down because the usda said we planted 97 million acres even though we didn't. What would the prices be doing if they said we planted 92 million? Markets respond to the information put out by the usda BS In BS out. I would NOT be counting on too much supply just yet. A lot of acres not planted and even more planted well after the planting deadline. Better hope for a real late frost and what's the yield going to be? There's a long time until harvest.

  341. Anonymous says:

    How long do you actually plan on binning 75% of your grain. Eventually it's gonna hit the market. The basis will prolly be wide this winter so holding it till next summer could be smart, but it's not like you are gonna hold onto it for a couple years. Everyone thinks they have found a way to make the market go up somehow. It still just comes back to basic economics. We are gonna have to much supply this year and not enough demand. Just the opposite of last year. I kinda hate to see livestock guys struggling anyway. They could use a year break from high priced grain.

  342. Anonymous says:

    Hi, I farm here in Canada and the crops here are exceptionally of to a great start. The usda reports have stolen about 200 a bushel from my farm operation with its bs lies as well. We sold wheat off the combine for 9.25 a bushel Minneapolis price now that the legalized mafia cwb is gone. No crop to speak of in the usa last year so it should of escalated prices much higher. Canadian farmers held on to most of there wheat and in june of this year 7.50 a bushel even tough the pipe is empty. farmers on both sides have to start a enough is enough. campaign on both sides of the border

  343. Anonymous says:

    South Americans are selling corn below cost. It's just a matter of time until North Americans will be selling corn below cost.

  344. Anonymous says:

    In my family and somewhat in the community. They will believe a lie in a heartbeat. If you tell them the truth and have paper to back it up, they won't believe you. The USDA has done you guys a marketing service that money can't buy. They said there is record suppliers of grain coming. WELL GUYS, WHEN THE HARVEST STARTS EVERYONE NEEDS TO BIN UP AT LEAST 75% OF IT. If it is not filling the pipeline then more money will be offered to get you to sell it. DON'T believe me? Why was basis in Maryland +$1.30 for cash soybeans this week. So the USDA can't read numbers or charts. The smart operations know that if you hold back grain long enough the price will go up. REMEMBERED THIS TRADERS HAVE TO HAVE GRAIN TO TRADE. CHEAP OR RECORD PRICE. The market is doing its job and your job is to make ths market work for you. GOOD EXAMPLE! PRICE DIESEL FUEL, LOTS OF SUPPLY AND A HIGH PRICE.

  345. Anonymous says:

    "Taking shots at"7/3/2013 7:28am.Your number one!

  346. Anonymous says:

    Your right we are just gonna have to wait until October or later to know what the acres are. Maybe USDA is wrong and there is only 95 million acres of corn instead of 97.7. Or maybe USDA was wrong in March and we were going to plant 100 million acres, but only got 97.7 million planted. Time will tell but history has shown us that farmers are very good at their jobs and will overproduce when the market tells us too.

  347. Anonymous says:

    How is asking for proof and data to back up the numbers the USDA presents in their reports considered taking shots at them? Isn't an analysts job to analyze data and present facts and provide their sources that helped them derive their conclusion?

  348. Anonymous says:

    The ISU Extension Agronomist for Northwest Iowa said that a lot of the June planted corn can expect a possible yield of around 110 to 120 bushels per acre if all goes well. Beans planted the latter part of June can expect yields of around 25 bushels per acre. Prevented Planted acres will yield zero bushels per acre. Iowa and Minnesota are two of the largest producing corn and soybean states in the country. With the number of acres late planted and prevented planted there is no way that the USDA "estimates" can be attained. But that is what the trade will accept until the USDA reports differently. Which probably won't happen until the combines start rolling in the fall in middle to late October if we are lucky enough to get a late frost.

  349. Anonymous says:

    Now guys are taking shots at USDA and Bryce. If you don't like our system maybe you should go farm in Brazil or Argentina. I'm sure their system is flawless.

  350. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, is it possible to get a map showing the USDA's planted acreage survey locations? I'm curious how this compares to the areas in SE MN that I have seen first hand that are nothing but fields producing weeds.(AKA preventive planting) I believe there are a few garden spots, but how can this years crop ratings be better than last years. There are alot of problem areas out here.

  351. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, No mirrors needed. A guy don't farm and succed for 27 years looking back and or reflections as far as you are concerned. My point is stand up and go across the grain as far as the norm. You follow USDA as it is bible and do not cause reprept. I have read words by you as "sespect" and so forth when it comes to USDA, but never anything harsher. I realize you have a good job you don't want to burn, but maybe you need to step up sir. My mirrors are clear, are yours?

  352. Anonymous says:

    I heard today the USDA was going to hire a consultant to find out why their data is so much different than what is trading. Guess they need to spend more money to figure out what is going on. Such ineptness. Scott County Eastern Iowa

  353. Anonymous says:

    So little talk anymore of the late beans. Beans emerged June 30 in mid upper midwest should be a concern. Beans emerging now (or never) in these states are wheat beans at best and some of these states don't double crop.

  354. Anonymous says:

    I can confirm the last post. South Dakota farmer here. Our acreage is huge, I might say the USDA undershot the acreage in SD and so far the corn looks like a record breaker here as long as we don't get a lot of heat during pollination.

  355. Anonymous says:

    Over the weekend I drove from NE Wisconsin down to Rochester Mn. It was a jaw-dropper.More empty fields than I expected.Continued west on I-90 for another 100 miles before things improvedl.Still saw lots of ponds and bare spots.South Dakota corn looked good up #281,across #14 west and #83 north.Huge corn acreage in S Dakota,all looks good along that route.Everywhere on my trip beans are very late,short.If Wisconsin corn is 2 inches tall the end of June,how would the USDA rate it? The previous post quoting the crop insurance adjuster sounds realistic to me.

  356. Anonymous says:

    keep in mind several cotton farmer are now corn and bean farmers. I found several videos on YouTube of cotton warehouses being filled with shell corn. southern elevators are overwhelemed with the additional bushels of corn coming and are struggling to add the additional storage space needed for all the extra acres corn prices have bought.

  357. Anonymous says:

    So the USDA will resurvey bean acres and not corn acres. Sounds like they want to come up with more bean acres too. I guess beans are too expensive. Not that long ago the talk was corn acres being switched to beans. Why not resurvey both? How is it that every year we seem to gain more total production acres? Why doesn't the USDA start reporting numbers from actual data?

  358. Anonymous says:

    What did you think the USDA report would say? This country has ran on cheap fuel and food for decades. Cheap fuel is a thing of the past and food has temp. joined that group. Has anyone else noted that when there is a short crop the fall numbers are released on the high side of true production, stay high until spring when they start to drop just as a new prediction of large acres and yield appears come spring. Everyone, needs cheap cornflakes, and beef makes the economy go around.

  359. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, what's your best advice in risk management when the usda is always coming up with fuzzy numbers to manipulate the markets? We all know there's not 97.4 million acres planted but the usda has to spin it that way. We read your column every day to try and manage risk but either you are misinforming us or the usda is. Who is it?

  360. Anonymous says:

    Bryce is right. We all know we can't trust USDA reports, but we can use them to make money. Good businessmen spend years developing good information and good judgment. When USDA is wrong it's a great opportunity for good businessmen.

  361. Anonymous says:

    As I've said many times, don't try to outguess USDA. Be prepared in your risk management plans for whatever they come up with, rather than trying to outguess the market. If it makes you feel better to insult me, look in a mirror. -- Bryce

  362. Anonymous says:

    The usda should be using more up to date information but they probably don't want to because it's a lot easier to lie, be deceitful or whatever you want to call it every time there's a report. Why do we always have to look for "surprises" every time there's a report?

  363. Anonymous says:

    It appears that the biggest problem with the wonderful USDA report, besides how they compute the acres, may be that it works off intentions and the fact that they are using information as of June 1. This data is not useful to anyone at this stage of the game given the things that have happened in farmers' backyards since then. It may be more accurate in a normal year, if someone could tell me what that is, but then we are still dealing with one month old data. There ought to be a way to give more current data to the week as in the crop condition reports. Just saying it is what it is doesn't cut the mustard. We can and should do better. Instead of the end of June, make the report two weeks later to reflect what acres are reported and then we will have something. The GPS maps should be really colorful this time of year, especially if the ground is covered in water. If it seems so obvious to me and other commenters, why isn't it obvious to the powers to be? Nothing changes if you do not do anything different. Same old story every year. Now lets resurvey and make adjustments 2 months later in August, way after pollination and we all know how important that is. I sure would like to see some changes. Surely the USDA has a panel of advisors that are capable of seeing these things. If not, lets get one formed. Scott County Eastern Iowa

  364. Anonymous says:

    Talked to my crop insurance guy yesterday {6-27-13} and he told me he's swamped with claims. He said between Mn, Iowa, Wisconsin & Illinois there's 4 MILLION ac of prevent plant and another 5 MILLION ac that got planted well after the ins deadline. Wonder who we should believe, the usda who said we planted 97.4 million acres or the crop adjuster who's working on all these claims who says the acres are NOT there. Last year we had one of the fastest planting's ever and we planted 97.2 million ac. This year was the slowest planted ever and we planted 97.4? I've said it before the usda is an embarrassment to all farmers and we deserve a whole lot better. It' market manipulation & corruption at it's best. We as farmers know what's going on so the best thing we can do is keep talking amongst ourselves. Eventually the truth will come out but it might take a while.

  365. Anonymous says:

    Isn't it time that all self-respecting analysts and all farmers demand better, more accurate, up-to-date reporting from the USDA? Reporting non planted acres as planted if you give up and prevented planted acres as planted makes no sense whatsoever. Some analysts say it is what it is and we have to trade it until the next report. That's B.S. We deserve better and we should demand it. This is 2013 and we have technology that can make estmates a thing of the past. And if there is conspiring to get whatever numbers they want, then lets find out who and roll some heads. My two cents. Scott County Eastern Iowa.

  366. Anonymous says:

    Beyond crooks!

  367. Anonymous says:

    To 6-24-13, about tiling ground when you have PP. Here on the Finger Lakes we have a lot of tiled fields. This year the corn shows you where the tile are. Its a 2 foot wide strip over the tile that is green with the nicest short yellow corn next to it. That does not seem to be the answer. Here a fun fact for every acre inch of rain it weighs a 100 ton. If you got 9 inches of rain day in 3 episodes that is 900 tons of compaction to those bare fields. What to do about it. Well that give the U.research people something to do. My best guess is the rain compacted the soil perfectly and there is no oxygen for the roots. We just had a few days of dry and real heat. Some corn was just starting to curl. It got saved this morning, its back to raining for than other week.

  368. Anonymous says:

    I don't know how soybeans look at where you are. But in the Finger Lakes 90% look like crap. There is one early field planted around May 10 that has 2 sets of leaves is about 6 inches tall, plus they have this crazy yellow- green color that is hard to look at. I must add that these ate some really tough beans. They survived a near frost as cold as you could get without the crystals. To help even more let's not forget the 8 inches of rain since they were planted. The corn is up and down in the same field. I don't think there will be much of it will much will make 200 or even 150 bushels. Most of the corn is so screwed up that it will never grow out of it. Oh well fun times in the finger bowl, just waiting for the flush.

  369. Anonymous says:

    getting hailed out sucked. I'm replanting the irrigated beans to keep my aph up and should finish today. I'm planting a cover crop on the dry land bean ground and cashing the check. you have that option when the hail event is after the prevented planting date

  370. Anonymous says:

    Go Boy!

  371. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, I ask about planting dates in the calculation because the yield decrease doesn't seem to reflect what is a common known. My area (which is in the middle) has research to show a .3% reduction per day in yield after May 1 and a 1% per day yield reduction by late May. Even with the little that was planted early May, the later stuff far outwieghed it according to USDA itself. That seems to be much higher than 6 bu. off of USDA's original 160 some. Of course we won't know until the party is over but if we are going to start in March with a near record National yield, why don't we adjust down with givens or knowns when we are not having a great start. I guess let me ask in a different way. If I had picture perfect planting conditions the first of May and decided to wait until June to plant, how much would you discount my corn yield. I assume you would tell me much more than 6 bu.

  372. Anonymous says:

    I believe that just over 40% of the nation's bean crop was planted by June 3. If planting date is a consideration I am wondering how we can estimate to have such a high yield on beans when we are planting so late. Plus experience shows that late planting impacts yields dramatically. And some of the best yielding acres are those being subjected to the rains. Lateness of the crop is not being realistically calculated. Remember that these "models" do not include actual Field Observations. It is not raining inside the offices where the projected estimates of the crops are taking place. 2013 is making 1993 and 1991 look like a drought. And those "holes" that are in the fields this year were not there last year. Those "holes" yield ZERO.

  373. Anonymous says:

    Yes, my model takes into account planting dates, which is why current estimate is around 6 bpa lower than what it would be otherwise. June weather conditions get plugged in next week, but rain won't be considered a negative in and of itself until ponding/washout impact shows up in crop ratings. I drove from SE Wis to Chicago yesterday, from SE Wis to Iowa last week, and SE Wis to Illinois River week before that and was amazed that, despite the holes, there's crops that look excellent, if short. Will the corn yield? That's what makes it a market. Make sure your marketing plan is ready for anything -- $4 or $8, or both.

  374. Anonymous says:

    YH Dude.....you got a problem bro!

  375. Anonymous says:

    Just had between 5-10 inches of rain in a large area in SC MN. LOTS of bean acres under water and corn looks like crap. I've lost between 15-20 ac in a 90 acre field of beans. My best case scenario would be to get hailed out. Hail yes!

  376. Anonymous says:

    Bryce, Are you or any other analyst using planting dates or emergence dates in your yield calculations. Of course a late planted crop will be in higher condition because of the higher temps and day length compared to early (April, May) emergence but of course does not translate to better yield. Planting corn or beans in a moist field in August of course would look great up to 12 inches high. Of course it will yield zero. Seed companies and universities have all kinds of research on how planting dates effect final yield on average. Why cant we use something like this with condition ratings this year. The soybeans just planted in the north midwest should deffinately not be considered anything but what they are. Late planted beans where it freezes earlier. Those states do not double crop wheat (or give it much credit) for a reason, because it is very iffy at best. Why can't we use research, experience and reality to evaluate and predict this late crop?

  377. Anonymous says:

    So the millions of acres of corn in Iowa that are just peeking out of the ground or is less than 10 inches tall on land that raised 200 bushel plus corn the last few years are somehow going to average 158 according to the model being used? I want some of that stuff that is being smoked. In years past, you could count the number of bad fields as you drove several hundred miles on one hand. Now the number of good fields that you see can be counted on one hand. This is a big country and there are likely some good fields, but the fact is that the farm ground that has had the highest historical averages over the last several years is experiencing historic rainfall and resulting crop failure. The leaching of fertility and nitrogen has not been considered. Can not wait for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour in August and the Wake Up Call that will take place then. Good crops in Ohio and Indiana do not translate into a big crop when the big mega producing states are having BIG problems. There just is not enough production in those other states to make up for the shortfall that will take place in Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, and Wisconsin, plus the Dakotas. This is far, far worse than 1991 or 1993 and spread over a much greater area. With more rain on the way.

  378. Anonymous says:

    Dont worry the USDA will adress that problem of prevented planting after this year. next year they will take the cut off dates away and force you to plant it anyway or you wont get paid anything, or they will force you to tile that ground while its idiled. wait and see !

  379. Anonymous says:

    Whole new dynamic when it comes to projecting acreage and yields. It is called "Prevented Planting". Farmers who have purchased adequate crop insurance and are unplanted at this point will take Prevented Planting. This is a relatively new thing that is a feature of Federal Crop Insurance and was NOT around in 1991 or 1993. So analysts using those years in making calculations really have NO idea as to the amount of acres that will go unplanted this year. It is a whole new ballgame with a new set of rules in place. Supposedly there were around 11.5 million acres unplanted as of last Monday. With the rains that took place and projected weather expect many farmers to pull the plug this week. Not worth it to take the hit on projected future yields. Only farmers with little or no protection will plant. Any unplanted corn acres have already made the decision to not plant corn and take prevented planting. It is a no-brainer. They will not switch to beans as it makes no economic sense to do so if they have adequate crop insurance coverage.

  380. Anonymous says:

    Made a road trip this weekend to the Iowa Corn 250 Indy Car race at Iowa Speedway in Newton. Came across I 90 in Mn then I 35 south, in a nutshell things look terrible. Southerm Mn had up to 5 inches of rain Friday night. Things looked ok but not now after that. Starting at Albert Lea Mn down it's a diasaster . Lot of ground unworked and corn feilds that are not gonna make much in my opinion. Around Mason City Ia things looked pretty good then turned bad again. Tell you what boys thats a lot of prime ground thats not gonna produce much this year.. USDA better get there head out of the sand here pretty soon. As far as soybeans .. what soybeans ?

  381. Anonymous says:

    The 8:49 am comment is exactly right. Just because it's "planted" traders don't have a clue what's going on out here. As usual the usda will continue to lie and manipulate the numbers to keep the "books" somewhat in check. Time will tell but as of right now the usda's big projection of "big acres" and a "big yield" have bit them in the ass once again. Now they're going to have to figure out how to manipulate the numbers on what appears to be another small crop.

  382. Anonymous says:

    Spam from the money lender should be deleted IMO. There will be lots of prevented planted corn in our area. And with additional recent rains there will be many considering taking prevented planted soybeans as well. IMO, the analysts are overestimating the potential yield of this year's crop of corn and soybeans. The corn is way behind a normal year and the leaching of fertility is evident throughout the fields. The impact of that is not being considered. Soybeans that are planted have just gotten in the ground in the last week or so. Planting conditions were not good. Experience in planting drown out spots in previous years would lead one to expect a yield of around 30 bushels on either side under good conditions on the acres planted. Those expecting 40 bushels or more are delusional. The odds are extremely small of getting such yields at these late dates. Analysts are failing to understand how far away this crop is from maturity and that a very late frost date will definitely be needed. IMO, it is likely we will only raise enough corn and soybeans to correlate with usage and carryout levels will remain extremely tight. Time will tell.

  383. Anonymous says:

    All the talk of rain.I prevent plant corn because of no water in canal.I live in Colorado.

  384. Anonymous says:

    Crops are in good shape? Really, 64% are good to excellent? Wow, where have I been?

  385. Anonymous says:

    Rented, low lying and small inefficient fields were abandoned in much of Midwest. Was foriegn corn pushing the price too low so there is no incentive to risk planting muddy fields at 50 degree temperatures? More rain and more ponding on flat fields as of June 16th. Early corn is only 6 inches and a lot of it looks yellow in our county.

  386. Anonymous says:

    What happened to the Idle10 movement? I never believed that farmers would buy or rent land,then use only 90 percent of it. Insurance payments are available to acres too wet or too late. Some guys apparently will still plant something if they can.We're lemmings looking for a cliff.

  387. Anonymous says:

    To the 10:10 comment, you said we have had good prices due to too many end users, bad weather and crop ins. Who should we cut out then as an end user? China? Ethanol? Livestock? Are you gonna change the weather so it's perfect all over? Try going to the bank or where ever to get a loan to put your crop in and then tell them your not gonna take any crop ins. They won't even borrow you the money. Spend hundreds of dollars per acre with no ins and what happens when a disaster happens? Your SOL. Do you have ins on your house or vehicle? Do you have health ins? Or how about life ins? If you do, why do you? According to you we don't need crop ins, or for that fact any type of ins. What a preposterous statement. Why do they even offer crop ins then? Farmers produce the most valuable thing on earth. Food. Without us there's NOTHING. The next time your in the grocery store remember where all the food came from. Wise up.

  388. Anonymous says:

    To the 10:10 comment. I had college professor tell me many times that if nothing makes sense. Then follow the money. He never spoke any truer words than those. From what I see. There is going to be a short crop. What happened last year. Prices were real good at harvest. The pipeline filled then prices fell. Now that the pipeline is drained the price comes back up on the board and to get the hold outs, basis is closing in on record highs. Well there will be new record highs on the CBOT this time around. But maybe not. There maybe a lot of that cheap South American grain already bought coming to a market near you. Never mine the rust spores on those beans.

  389. Anonymous says:

    To the 8:12 comment. I said " that the barges are coming up the river loaded. They were hauling grain from S.America". That is after it has been off loaded at the port of New Orleans. South American grain price is based on the CBOT. Only makes sense to keep the market low to pay for all the costs of importing. As for basis that is like than award to those that held the grain. I hate to say this the market is doing its job at keeping the farmer down at any spot in the world. The biggest reason we have had good prices is there are to many end users and thanks to bad weather and crop insurance. We all had a few good years. The buyers have proven they can pay a good price for grain and no one went without. China payed record prices and it didn't slow them down until they filled there orders. Then the price fell off. Beans on the dock in China are still $21.00 a bushel just to feed to pigs. Well the boys in Washington have a new farm bill that is about worthless and crop insurance looks to be headed that way too. So you producers out thete may want to think about not enrolling in the new farm bill package when the time comes. Way to much paperwork and penalties if the paperwork isn't right. The plus side to that is that everyone doesn't know your business. Crop insurance is based on market price and APH. If either of those things get to low. Well save your money. Put $4.00 corn and a drought lowered APH and work through it. Use your own numbers. ARE YOU GOING TO COVER EXPENSES? Fun times ahead.

  390. Anonymous says:

    If there's so much grain on the barges, why is the basis still so strong for both corn and beans? 1.25 over for beans and .30 to .80 over for corn? Basis should be getting wider NOT narrower.

  391. Anonymous says:

    To the 2:18 am comment if we supposedly have all this grain on hand why are we importing more corn and beans than ever? The market did not do it's job in rationing bean demand and imports on corn are going up why, we don't have any. Not to hard to figure out. Good luck planting corn July 1st. Better hope you have perfect weather and no early frost or even a normal frost or your going to have 40 lb test weight corn. Elevators won't even take it or your going to get docked a lot. How does that pencil out?

  392. Anonymous says:

    Prevented Planting Option does not lower yields, which at this late date makes it a more attractive option. If you plant the crop then the future APH will go down when you harvest that poor crop. Right now, because of late planting date on corn and the penalty that would be incurred makes it a no brainer to not plant considering the costs of the seed, fertilizer, chemical, tillage costs, drying costs, storage costs, etc. The clock has run out. The game is over. Planting Corn right now is not an option if you push the pencil.

  393. Anonymous says:

    Instead of all the whinning about markets and no grain. Like the 125 million bushels. Well check the barges coming up river. They bring grain from S. America. That's why there is no change. But here is a much bigger problem for those of you who need something to do. Before your really park that planter. If you APH has be going down the last few years you may need a jar of tums Why? When they start knocking of the those percentages. What looked good maybe a real disappointment. So get those pencils out because you will need them. Then you guys are going to have to get busy and get the little APH thing changed around so you won't be looking off the road at the place you use to run. You may find the insurance PP payment is way below the cost of your own production. Better take a close look. I ran my numbers and July 1 st planted corn looks better than PP payment. Break out the 85 day corn. Beans are a looser that late.

  394. Anonymous says:

    Analyst would have you believe the usda is going to have a hard time figuring how many acres are being planted to what and how much is going to prevent planting. They know how many acres are being planted and to what crop. We have to certify acres and they can check with crop ins company's to see how many claims there were. The only hard thing they have to do is to figure out how they can come up with phony numbers so the balance sheet doesn't get to far out of wack. In the January report they said we had 125 mb on hand and 5 months later in the June report we still have 125 mb on hand??? I can hardly wait to see the report on 6/28.

  395. Anonymous says:

    The market will finally understand when harvest starts late and yields are "disappointing". Rain alone does not make grain.

  396. Anonymous says:

    Area between Madison and Milwaukee Wisconsin has lot of bare corn fields not even plowed as of June 10th. About 1 out of 5 abandoned. About half of these have ponding problems. Some good fields just untouched for no obvious reason. I hear it is worse further North? Is it this bad elsewhere?

  397. Anonymous says:

    early beans are "damping off" and dying in Nebraska due to cold wet weather this spring. it's not killing the whole field, but it is severly reducing stand counts.

  398. Anonymous says:

    Guided by the USDA will lead to financial ruin , they themselves need urgent guidance, and should repent for their sins ,as Hell is eagerly waiting for them, hope they get a hot reception

  399. Anonymous says:

    I have never filled out a USDA survey.Farmers are finally catching on.

  400. Anonymous says:

    A week and a half ago, I got off the farm and took a road trip. I live in NE Iowa so I took Hwy #18 across southern Wisconsin to Madison then south to Chicago and came back on Hwy #20 thru Dubuque to Waterloo then north. Maybe 20% of the ground was untouched and nobody in the field. Some hay was green chopped (not baled) and the black tracks they left made you shake your head. The oats looked good. Then last weekend I went to Des Moines by way of Mason City. Lots of ponds where there shouldn't be ponds. Too late and too wet to replant.....gone. Understand these observations were made from the window of my pickup at 60+ mph and watching for oncoming traffic. Traveled a lot of miles in a short time thru some pretty good farm ground. Locally, there are hundreds of acres abandoned.....not even planted for silage. Got my beans planted Tuesday and got 1 1/2 " of rain last night......others got more. I'm 60+ years old and farming is the reason to get up in the morning and anxious to face another day of challenges. They will drag me off this place three days before the funeral.

  401. Anonymous says:

    There will be millions of acres that will take the Prevented Planting option in Federal Crop Insurance. The analysts are not fully understanding that. Iowa is a disaster. The crop that is planted looks terrible with large areas dying out that were not even flooded out. This year is actually worse than 1993. We have had far more rain. And there is no end in sight.

  402. Anonymous says:

    We need to remember this when the usda sends out it's Census next year. I will continue throwing mine in the garbage. I'm also praying Psalms 109:8 over our President "let his days be few and another take his office." Amen.

  403. Anonymous says:

    Just do what I do when the USDA calls and wants info. I tell the poor soul who is doing the calling that "I'm sorry pal, but I wouldn't tell you clowns another thing if my life depended on it." Then, I hang up. Never again will I give them any numbers. Forget lying to them, just give them that line and hang up. The heck with them!

  404. Anonymous says:

    If rain makes grain,then more rain makes more grain.Buy some rice tires for your combine.You'll need 'em to bring in that big crop.

  405. Anonymous says:

    This report is beyond embarrassing for the usda. Do they really think were going to have a record bean crop with 20 million+ acres left to plant and most of these acres are being mudded in? Anybody with any common sense knows were not going to have 97 million acres of corn either. I suppose they didn't want to be left out with all the scandals going on in Washington so they did their part with this BS report today. I'm looking forward to the next report in a few weeks. I'm sure we won't be disappointed.

  406. Anonymous says:

    Stop anouncing what you have or are going to plant and let traders , USDA and FF just guess because if and when you do they will use the info to destroy the markets even more. let everyone guess !

  407. Anonymous says:

    The USDA would have us believe that there's lots of grain in storage and we'll grow bumper crops this year.Go to the CME website and download the charts for corn and beans,both old and new crop.Why such volatility? I'll bet that it's the same guys driving markets up and down.Bulls,bears are one and the same.They make their living this way.Other people get paid to analyze the game for us.It's like a game of poker except they get to see our hand,we get to ante up and tip the dealer,too.

  408. Anonymous says:

    Price manipulation, to make a quick buck ??

  409. Anonymous says:

    Stands on corn and beans arent what people originally thought. Weak seed along with wet spots at planting (nation wide) lead to thin stands in large areas. Starting to hear this from many including seed dealers and crop insurance salesman. I add that because of course farmers arent credible and dont know anything about their crop.

  410. Anonymous says:

    I saw the radar and it looked like plenty of rain to me to. The reason were at 95% done is because a lot of farmers are throwing in the towel and the usda is saying were almost done. Problem is were done with 93-94 million acres not the 97+ they said we were going to plant. Yet another way to manipulate the markets.

  411. Anonymous says:

    Think analysts should also get outside the office..!!

  412. Anonymous says:

    Some planting progress made Friday in south-central MN, but far from ideal conditions. Remaining crop is being mudded in. Alot of neighbors getting stuck and making lots of deep tracks in their fields.

  413. Anonymous says:

    Another 2 inch rain over the weekend here on the Iowa- Mn border. No sun and lots of beans to plant yet. Corn is at a standstill with no sun for weeks.Lots of ponding that will need replanting. It's like this in a big area. June 10 and looks like May 10. Maybe the boys at the USDA and the CBOT should get out of the office and into the real world ! I don't think the corn is gonna make "Knee high by the fourth of July" this year.... much less make a bumper crop. But what do I know, only been doing this for 37 years!

  414. Anonymous says:

    Did anyone see weekend planting in Iowa,Wisc.,Minn. S.Dakota? I watched the radar,didn't look like good drying weather to me.

  415. Anonymous says:

    When the sun manages to shine,it'll hit the dirt.

  416. Anonymous says:

    Corn 90 percent, beans 60 percent, Martin county MN. The corns been up for three to four weeks and its about two inches tall, soybeans that are up are having a hard time, 60 s and cloudy with rain about every three days. Talked to a mobile crop consultant, the Fairmont, MN area is the best for miles in any direction. Usually have 200 bushel corn and 65-70 beans, highly unlikely this year.

  417. Anonymous says:

    The market analysts do. We can't get a break on the weather. Crop is having major problems getting a good start in the major producing states. Producers would be wise to refrain from pricing. The crop will get smaller before it gets larger.

  418. Steve says:

    Eastern Wisc.has the worst start I've seen in years. The ditch is getting deeper.

  419. Anonymous says:

    Who believes we'll get the weather needed to pull this crop out of the ditch?

  420. Anonymous says:

    Flooding is terrible. Rivers at the highest levels I have seen in years. Rain since mid-May has resulted in few if any days for fieldwork. More rain in the forecast. Crop situation in Iowa is not good at all. Corn planted in our area has a minimum of 10% plus crop damage and the remainder looks very sick. Leaching of nitrogen, IMO, will have a significant impact and not sure that farmers will attempt to even sidedress due to conditions in the field and the demands of trying to plant remaining crops. The flooded fields are widespread over Iowa and other areas. Analysts are slow to recognize crop loss. End users would be wise to cover their projected needs. There is more field loss out there than just the drown out areas. Fields without pattern tiling have large areas that have died off due to damping off of corn and soybeans. It is not good.

  421. Anonymous says:

    how much flooding is going on in the three I states? is it really as bad as the national news makes it sound?

  422. Anonymous says:

    Seeing some of those last beans trying to get in. To wet to run a sprayer across a field but they were disking to make it dry out. They baried John Deers finest, pulled it out and kept on going. Dirt smelled like sewage waste after being worked and a nice compaction layer disk deep. Oh yea...60 bushel easy no matter what happens from here on out. To many acres doomed from the start. But what do I know compared to the experts sold the market. Let alone our fine trustworthy USDA.

  423. Anonymous says:

    I agree with 6/4 11:33 comments. I have everything planted, but wet spots have reduced stands. We need warm sunny weather and so far not getting it in June. I believe the heat units are even behind the last time I checked. Beans, which were planted before the last 4.5" hard rain have emergence issues with hard ground. Hot, dry weather in July and August will be brutal on this year's crop. So.... it is hard to agree with the market or analysts that predict adequate carry-overs and yields just below 160 on corn. The acres or yields just will not be there. Goss's Wilt and SDS on beans have been predicted to be bad this year also. But hey, lets just assume we will have good yields and sell what we may not have. What if we have another 125 bushel year? Let's not talk about that however. Scott County Eastern Iowa

  424. Anonymous says:

    Market trying to persuade producers to switch to soybeans ? Hoping for something to be able to work them over with, pen pushers should get real

  425. Anonymous says:

    In our area and across much of Iowa we have experienced severe drown out in acres that are considered to be planted. In addition, we are now seeing areas that are not well tiled but not drowned out on sloping ground that have the corn crop dying. With an additional 2 inches of rain last night and more forecast to be coming in the days ahead, it is highly doubtful that the drown out areas or wet dead acres will get planted to corn or any other crop. These are highly productive areas that have been producing 200 plus bushels of corn and 60 plus bushels of beans. At this point according to the calendar, and according to the conditions in the field, I really don't see how a 13 billion bushel corn crop is remotely possible. With ideal conditions the rest of the way we may struggle to get a 12 billion bushel corn crop and a sub 3 billion bushel bean crop. And if an early frost hits, look out. The pencil pushers need to come out of the office and take a look. But they probably want to stay inside, since it is constantly raining outside.

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