More Corn Fewer Soybeans No Surprise to Lanworth

USDA report triggers massive market shifts predicted by Lanworth's satellite-enabled spatial models.

Published on: Jul 1, 2009

Tuesday's USDA acreage report supported Lanworth's forecasts of constrained soybean supply and extensive corn plantings, issued consistently since March and updated last week. Lanworth's estimates have stood boldly apart from analyst expectations but were on the money with USDA's report.


Lanworth's estimate of the corn crop was nearly 1 million acres above the average trade estimate, and even lower than USDA's surprise announcement of 87 million planted acres that triggered Tuesday's abrupt sell-off. Lanworth also predicted soybean plantings below market expectations and spring wheat higher, both of which were supported by USDA's report.


"The market is now watching to see if the 3.5 million acre increase in the total area planted to corn and soybeans forecasted by the USDA actually materializes over the course of the year," said Nicholas Kouchoukos, Lanworth vice president of information services. "With late planting decisions still to be made on a half-million acres, today's report sets the stage for our important yield forecasts through the growing and harvest season as the USDA settles on a final production number in January."


Unlike its competitors, Lanworth's reports are not based on surveys of farmers. The company uses three elements to arrive at its projections: real-time satellite feeds delivered twice daily, extensive field sampling, and sophisticated computer models of soil conditions, farming practices, weather and many other factors. Lanworth was the first to provide accurate impact assessments of the 2008 Midwest floods and the 2009 Kansas and Oklahoma freeze.