"To date, the pace of corn exports has been much slower than needed to reach the USDA projection for the year," he adds.
Based on the weekly Export Sales report, exports during the first seven weeks of the marketing year averaged 19.1 million bushels per week. To reach the USDA projection, weekly exports for the remainder of the year need to average 22.6 million bushels. As of Oct. 18, 292 million bushels of corn had been sold for export but not yet shipped.
"Those outstanding sales are 52% less than outstanding sales of a year earlier," Good says. "Every major buyer has purchased substantially less U.S. corn than purchased last year. There may be some opportunity for exports to accelerate as the year progresses as competition from wheat and South American corn moderates."
Weekly estimates of ethanol production from the U.S. Energy Information Administration reveal that ethanol production during the first seven weeks of the marketing year was 8% less than during the same period last year. For the two weeks ended Oct. 19, production was down 12% from that of last year.
"The year-over-year reductions are likely to continue to be large, at least through the end of the calendar year," Good explains. "Last year, ethanol production accelerated in November and December in anticipation of the expiration of the blender's tax credit on Dec. 31, 2011. However, the current weekly pace is sufficient for corn consumption for ethanol and byproduct consumption to reach 4.5 billion bushels for the year."
According to Good, the upcoming decision by the EPA in regard to a partial waiver of the Renewable Fuels Standards is not expected to have a substantial impact on ethanol production in the near future.