'Cause and effect'- it's the theme of the squirrelly country song 'Third Rock from the Sun.' Something goes wrong making something else happen in this whimsical tale of calamity in a small town. The 'cause and effect' you may be most concerned about now is how the concluding season and grain production levels will affect corn and soybean markets both near term and short-term.
Stay up with Farm Progress analysts on this site to zero in on their insights and projections. In the meantime, here is a broader idea to consider. Literally no rain in August and September in much of the eastern and central to south-central Corn Belt forced an effect- lower yields than expected. The chain-reaction effect may be lower USDA estimates than expected through final yield estimate, especially for corn. The effect could be higher prices.
On the flip side, it's not dry everywhere. In fact, anecdotal reports say that it's extremely wet in Wisconsin and Minnesota. While Indianapolis posted the fourth driest September in recorded weather history, some areas of Wisconsin received inches upon inches of rain, sometimes at one time. There was a reason why a levee threatening to break in Wisconsin was a key story in the Midwest in late September.
Back up a second- one of the driest and earliest fall harvests in history in southern Indiana, Ohio , Illinois and some other parts of the Corn Belt to the south is almost in the books. So if you're a company that sells drive systems for combines designed to help the combine get through tough, wet conditions, then this could be your worst year ever, right?
Remember cause and effect. It's dry here, but it's extremely wet in the northern Corn Belt. Harvest is attempting to start there too. Tales of farmers rigging up trucks that can be towed backwards by tractors on big hooks just to get silage out of the field raise eyebrows as to just how wet it is in some of those areas.
Insiders say that Mud Hog, a division of Tuthill Industries, Brookston, actually are so busy they can't keep up with orders making Mud Hog, the drive for combines that proves a real boost in wet conditions. While it's powder dry outside the plant where they're made, the units are going into Wisconsin and Minnesota, nearly as fast as they can be made and shipped.
It's not one world, and this is definitely not one season. Be careful about the conclusions that you draw after looking out your back door.