The promised El-Nino losing its vigor, also adds to the uncertainty of winter wheat in Texas.
Waller notes that as recently as August, forecasters, including those at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, had been expecting a stronger than average El Nino to develop in the tropical Pacific.
A strong El Nino—that could have increased chances for wetter weather—would have been just what the winter wheat crop needs.
In addition, because 2011's Exceptional Drought zapped so much subsoil moisture, this winter wheat crop will need greater-than-average rainfall just to show an average performance.
"The markets by this time would usually start to decline, but we're still looking at enough uncertainty, especially with changes in the weather forecast, that we may not see as much rainfall as earlier expected this year."
Parts of Texas that had some good rains earlier this fall were able to harvest some hay, says Anthony Munoz, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service agent for Schleicher County at Eldorado.
"Those of us in areas where we're looking to buy hay have a little more opportunity to be selective, as last year it was more 'take what you can get.'"
Water-robbing brush also could be more of a problem. Bob Lyons, AgriLife Extension range specialist at Uvalde, says areas of bare ground that resulted from the 2011 Texas Drought gave mesquite an opening for mesquite beans to sprout and increase mesquite brush. Time will determine the degree of that.
Meanwhile, Steve Lyons at the NWS says dry conditions could get worse in Texas from November to January 2013, and the drought especially could intensify from Lubbock north to Amarillo.
More information on the current Texas dry conditions and wildfire alerts can be found on the AgriLife Extension Agricultural Drought Task Force website.