Drought Conditions Lower Crop Yield Projections

Crop yield projections decrease as Missouri endures drought.

Published on: Sep 13, 2013

As the northern tier of counties enjoyed a brief shot of rain yesterday, the USDA released its crop projections showing a decrease in yields across Missouri due to drought.

There has been little rainfall over the past two months creating dry conditions for much of the northern portion of the state. This is the fourth year that some areas of Missouri have experienced a drought and yields are expected to decline if conditions persist. Already, 81% of the state is reporting short to very short topsoil moisture.

According to yesterday's USDA production forecast, yields are expected to decline from the Aug. 1 forecast with the exception for rice, a crop that is entirely irrigated in the state.

For some parts of Missouri, this is the fourth year of drought, and 81% of the state is reporting short to very short topsoil moisture. According to a recent USDA production forecast, yields for most Missouri crops are expected to decrease from the August 1 forecast.
For some parts of Missouri, this is the fourth year of drought, and 81% of the state is reporting short to very short topsoil moisture. According to a recent USDA production forecast, yields for most Missouri crops are expected to decrease from the August 1 forecast.

The report shows the state corn yield forecast reduced to 125 bushels per acre, 5 bushels below last month's forecast. This is also below the 10 average yields of 127 bushels and the fourth year in a row below the yield trend. Corn planted acres are estimated at 3.45 million acres unchanged from August 1, according to the report. However, despite the drought conditions, production on these acres is up from the 2012 season by 64% to 406.3 million bushels.

Projections for soybean yields are also down roughly 4 bushels to 35 bushels per acre. Harvested acres are expected to reach 5.64 million acres. The USDA estimates that these acres will produces 27% above last year at 197.4 million bushels. If realized, this year will be the fourth highest soybean production total for the state.

U.S. Highlights

Corn production is forecast at 13.8 billion bushels, up less than 1% from the August forecast and up 28% from 2012. If realized, this will be a new record production for the United States.

Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average 155.3 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from the August forecast and 31.9 bushels above the 2012 average. If realized, this will be the highest average yield since 2009. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 89.1 million acres, unchanged from the last month's forecast but up 2% from 2012. 

Soybean production is forecast at 3.15 billion bushels, down 3% from August but up 4% from last year. If realized, production will be the fourth largest on record. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.2 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from last month but up 1.6 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 76.4 million acres, unchanged from August but up slightly from 2012.

For more on the USDA September Crop Projections, follow this link.

Source: USDA NASS