corn production is forecast 4 to 5% lower in the entire country, according to Todd Meyer, senior director of U.S. Grain Council's Beijing
office. Meyer gave an overall report of China
's 2005 corn crop and the overall feed grain supply and demand situation Friday from Beijing
USDA forecasts China exports at 3 million tons for 2005-2006. Meyer says, "From what we now know about the crop, it could go significantly lower than 3 million tons in my opinion."
The Northeast region, consisting of the provinces of Jilin, Heilongjiang and inner Mongolia, experienced a wet growing season and less sunshine than normal. Besides weather, more than normal pest pressure pushed yields in the area down about 10%, Meyer says.
The North China Plains region had corn acreage up a little bit in the area, with cotton down. "Yields were fairly good in this area, although there was some damage from typhoons and storms," he adds. "All and all we're putting the corn acreage up slightly and yields down just a little bit."
Meyers says given the fact that China consumption is still growing, it will continue to put pressure on the supply situation. "I think [China corn] prices will stay stable as farmers will be reluctant to sell at low prices heading into harvest," he says. "The key period is to look at prices next May or June when regional supplies start to tighten up."
China continues to experience a big move towards commercialization. "Swine is well on its way and dairy is the new kid on the block," Meyer says. "We're pretty confident that demand is growing and the net impact of the increased animal protein output, improved efficiencies and commercialization of the industries does result in increased amounts of needed corn."