March 13, 2014
Upcoming agricultural reports to watch for: Friday, March 14, is the expiration of the March futures for the grains & soybean complex. Saturday, March 15 is a full moon. Thursday, March 20 is the first day of spring. Monday, March 31 is the Prospective Plantings and the Quarterly Grain Stocks.
Today Allendale released their farmer survey on 2014 acreage showing corn acreage at 92.349 million acres, down 3.016 from last year; soybeans at 83.212 million acres, an increase of 6.679 million from last year; all wheat 55.324 million acres, down 832,000 from last year. The USDA will release the Prospective Plantings Report on March 31 at 11 a.m. CT.
Corn futures today made new highs for the week and closed negative. There was a lack of fresh news to influence price direction, and more so a lack of fund buying activity.
For the week ending March 6, the weekly export sales for the corn were 683,400 metric tons (26.90 million bushels) for the old crop and 103,600 metric tons (4.08 million bushels) for the new crop. The pre-report estimated range was 500,000 to 1.3 million metric tons (19.68 – 51.18 million bushels).
There was talk that China may be cancelling some more U.S. DDGs due to their soybean meal supplies and demand issues, in addition to the continuing debate over MIR 162.
May Corn futures traded mixed today, made a new high for the week, but closed negative. Resistance is at $5.02 the 50% retracement of the January Low to the June High, $5.02 ½ the March high, then $5.22 ½ the 61.8% retracement. Support is at $4.78 the 200-day moving average, then $4.64 the March Low, then $4.50 the 50-day moving average, then $4.38 ¾ the February low, then $4.14 ½ the contract and January Low.
December Corn today traded mixed, made a new high for the week and closed negative. The 200-day moving average continues to be tough resistance. The contract from the January contract low to the March high has rallied 58 ¾-cents with most of that upside coming on the January 10 report day 23 ¾-cents. The $5.07 mark is a 50% retracement of the January low back to the June high.
Soybean and soybean futures today managed to recover from yesterday's large losses to close positive. Today's positive close was good, but did back well off the session highs. The unwinding of old crop/new crop spreading of the past three sessions came to an end today for the soybeans and soybean meal futures.
The talk and rumors still persist that China has cancelled 600,000 metric tons of Brazilian soybean purchases.
For the week ending March 6 the weekly export sales for the soybeans were 113.500 metric tons (4.17 million bushels) for the old crop and 776,900 metric tons (28.55 million bushels) for the new crop. The pre-report estimated range was 100,000 to 675,000 metric tons (3.67 – 24.80 million bushels).
May Soybean futures traded mixed, filled the open gap that was left on Wednesday and closed positive today. Resistance is at $14.00 area, then $14.25, then $14.50 area, then $14.60 the March & Contract high, then $14.75 area. Support starts at $13.65 ½ the March Low, then $13.50 area, then $13.23 the 50-day moving average, $13.00 the 100-day moving average, then $12.85 the 200-day moving average.
November Soybeans today traded mixed and closed slightly positive on an inside trading session. The contract has traded on both sides of the 200-day moving average the past eight sessions. The November contract from its contract low to the March high has rallied $1.09. The $11.94 mark is a 50% retracement of the January low back to the June high and was breached today.
Wheat futures were able to make another round of new highs for the current move to the upside, but closed today with mostly double-digit losses. Most of the actively traded wheat contract in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis today for the first time in this aggressive move higher experienced a new high for the move and a negative close. This could be the sign of topping action. Keep in mind that more of this upside has come from fund and technical buying than bullish fundamentals.
For the week ending March 6 the weekly export sales for the wheat were 476,900 metric tons (17.52 million bushels) for the old crop, and 89,200 metric tons (3.28 million bushels) for the new crop. The pre-report estimated range was 450,000 to 800,000 metric tons (16.54 – 29.40 million bushels).
Kansas City May Wheat futures today had its highest trade since October 25 and then closed negative. Resistance is at $7.59 ½ the March high, then $7.71 ½ October High. Support is at $7.25 area, then $7.08 the 200-day moving average, then $6.80 the 100-day moving average, then $6.80 ½ to $6.79 ¼ Open Gap, then $6.57 the 50-day moving average; $6.25 area, then $6.05 the contract and January Low.
Chicago May Wheat had its highest trade today since October 30 and then closed negative. Resistance starts at $6.96 ½ March High, then $7.00 area, then $7.22 ½ the October High. Support is at $6.63 the 200-day moving average, then $6.45 area, then $6.31 the 100-day moving average, then $6.20 area, then $6.11 ¼ to $6.05 Open Gap, then $6.00 the 50-day moving average, then $5.75 area, then $5.53 ½ the contract and January low.
The Minneapolis May Wheat today made a new high for the week and had its highest trade since November 8 and closed negative near the low of the session. Resistance is at $7.41 ½ the March high, then $7.50 area. Support begins at $7.00 area, then $6.76 the 100-day moving average, then $6.50 area, then $6.43 the 50-day moving average, then $6.15 area, then $5.94 ½ the contract and January low.
There is still time for timely spring rains, but the current drought monitor map still shows plenty of dryness in the western Corn Belt and all of the Southern Plains. The older map does show we are in much better shape than one year ago.
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