March 7, 2014
Today's trading action was up and down with only the wheat and soybeans closing positive and the corn lower. With all of today's trading action there was a real lack of fresh market moving news. No doubt there was some positioning ahead of Monday's USDA report and some concerns over what may occur in the Ukraine over the weekend. The bottom line is there were basically no major changes to the fundamentals, but a sizable increase in fund buying.
Upcoming agricultural reports to watch for: Sunday, March 9 is the start of Daylight Savings Time. Monday, March 10 at 10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. is the month USDA supply and demand report. Monday March 31 is the Prospective Plantings and the Quarterly Grain Stocks.
This morning's release of the February non-farm payroll was better than expected at 175,000 new jobs. The January payroll was revised higher from 113,000 to 129,000 new jobs and the December payroll was also revised higher from 75,000 to 84,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7%. The stock market closed up only 30.83 points today at 16452.72.
Corn futures closed negative today, but first were able to make new highs for the week before selling off. Some wheat/corn spread action may have added to the lower closes for the corn futures. Corn futures did have strong early session upside that started in the evening trade and managed to hold off the session lows going into the close.
For the week the May corn futures gained 25 ½ cents and are $2.02 lower than a year ago. The December 2014 corn contract gained 13 ¼ cents, and is $0.57 lower than a year ago.
May Corn futures today traded mixed, had its highest trade since September 3 and closed negative. Resistance is at $5.02 the 50% retracement of the January Low to the June High, $5.02 ½ the March high, then $5.22 ½ the 61.8% retracement. Support is at $4.79 the 200-day moving average, then $4.60 area, then $4.46 the 50 & 100-day moving averages, then $4.38 ¾ the February low, then $4.14 ½ the contract and January Low.
December Corn contract today traded mixed, made a new high for the move that is the highest since September 30 and closed negative. The contract from the contract low to the March high has now rallied 58 ¾-cents with most of that upside coming on the January 10 report day 23 ¾ cents. The $5.07 mark is a 50% retracement of the January low back to the June high.
Positive closes today for the soybean and soybean meal futures. Last month new contract highs in the soybean meal was helping to pull the soybean futures higher, but today new contract highs were made in the soybeans and not in the soybean meal.
The May soybean futures gained 43 ¾-cents for the week and are $0.16 lower than a year ago. The November 2014 soybean futures gained 18-cents this week and are $0.91 lower versus a year ago.
May Soybeans today made a new high for the week and a new contract high and closed positive near the session high. Resistance is at $14.60 the March & Contract high, then $14.75 area. Support starts at $14.25 area, then $14.00 area, then $13.75 area, then $13.50 area, then $13.25 area, then $13.14 the 50-day moving average, $12.93 the 100-day moving average, then $12.82 the 200-day moving average.
November Soybeans today traded mixed, made a new high for the move the highest since September 13 and closed positive on a large outside trading session. The contract closed above the 100-day moving average for the eleventh straight session today. The contract from the contract low to the March high has rallied $1.09. The $11.94 mark is a 50% retracement of the January low back to the June high and was breached today.
Wheat futures traded and closed higher today. Compared to the mixed trade in the corn and the volatile trading in the soybeans today the wheat futures were the most stable at holding positive trade through the majority of the session.
The May KC Wheat gained 47 ¼-cents for the week and is $0.13 lower than a year ago. The July 2014 KC Wheat gained 44 ½-cents this week and is $0.26 lower than a year ago.
The May CH wheat gained 51 ¾-cents for the week and is $0.42 lower than a year ago. The July 2014 CH Wheat gained 50 ¾-cents this week and is $0.40 lower than a year ago.
The May MW wheat gained 34 ¼-cents for the week and is $0.91 lower than a year ago. The September 2014 MW Wheat gained 43-cents this week and is $0.90 lower than a year ago.
Kansas City May Wheat futures today made a new high for the current move and the highest trade since November 6 and closed positive. Resistance is at $7.25 ½ the March high, then $7.40 ½ the November high. Support is at $7.09 the 200-day moving average, then $6.81 the 100-day moving average, then $6.80 ½ to $6.79 ¼ Open Gap, then $6.50 the 50-day moving average; $6.25 area, then $6.05 the contract and January Low.
Chicago May Wheat futures surged to a new current high and the highest since December 5 and closed positive at mid-range today. Resistance starts at $6.63 the March high, then $6.65 the 200-day moving average. Support is at $6.32 the 100-day moving average, then $6.20 area, then $6.11 ¼ to $6.05 Open Gap, then $5.96 the 50-day moving average, then $5.75 area, then $5.53 ½ the contract and January low.
The Minneapolis May Wheat today completed a new high for the move and highest trade since December 4 and closed positive and near the session high. Resistance is at $7.06 ½ the March high, then $7.27 the 200-day moving average. Support begins at $6.78 the 100-day moving average, then $6.50 area, then $6.37 the 50-day moving average, then $6.15 area, then $5.94 ½ the contract and January low.
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This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Mr. Leffler does not currently maintain interest in the commodities mentioned within this report.
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