December 12, 2013
A lack of buying interest, outright selling, profit taking and sell stops all contributed to the selling in the grain and soybean complexes today. There was a real lack of any type of fresh price-negative news to slam the grains or soy complex lower.
Upcoming agricultural reports to watch for: Friday is the expiration of the December futures grain and soybean product contracts. Next Monday morning is the monthly NOPA crush report and the weekly export inspections.
The November U.S. retail sales rose 0.7%, the most in five months. The October retail sales were revised higher to 0.6%. Auto sales were up 1.8%, furniture sales up 1.2% and purchases of electronic and appliances were up 1.1%.
This morning's weekly unemployment benefits were at 368,000 claims up 68,000 and the largest increase in a year. The 4-week average was up 6,000 claims at 328,750 claims. For the final full week of November there were 3.8 million people collecting some type of unemployment benefits.
According to the Iowa Land Value Survey that was completed in November they pegged the average Iowa farmland value at $8,716 per acre, which is an increase of5.1% over 2012. The northwest region of Iowa has the highest land value average at $10,960, which is down 3.9% from 2012. Two Iowa counties exceed $12.250 per acre, O'Brien County at $12,384 and neighboring Sioux County at $12,296.
A Chinese national has been arrested and is accused of stealing seed technology trade secrets worth at least $30-$40 million, according to a U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa. This reported occurred between September 2011 and October 2012. Additional charges may be filed against five others they may have helped.
Corn futures traded and closed negative today, despite the weekly corn export sales being good this morning. The selling today really got rolling in the soybean complex and spread to the corn and wheat. There was no outright price negative news to push the corn futures lower
The weekly export sales were good for the corn with the new crop at 695.4 tmt and old crop at 109.4 tmt the pre-report estimated range was 450-800 tmt
The weekly export sales in million bushels are 27.4 for new crop and 4.3 for old crop and the range was 17.7-31.5.
This morning Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn and California Senator Dianne Feinstein introduced a bill to eliminate the corn ethanol mandate. This bill is co-sponsored by eight other senators and has been in the works since back in October. We are hearing that they may have a tough job getting enough support behind this bill.
The corn planting in Argentina is reported at 55.2% complete by the Buenos Aires Commodity Exchange.
The March corn futures today had their lowest trade of the past six sessions and closed negative today. Tuesday's high was the highest of the past 19 sessions. Resistance is at $4.40 ¾ the December high, then $4.41 the 50-day moving average, then $4.49 ½ the November high, then $4.50 psychological area, then $4.59 the 100-day moving average. Support is $4.25 area, then $4.18 ½ contract and December low and then the $4.10 area.
The entire soybean complex closed negative today despite having a very large weekly export sales number this morning. As we have mentioned in the past the soybean complex was due to correct at some point in the future. Even with today's lower trade and close, the upside has not been hurt too much today.
The weekly export sales were great for the soybeans with the new crop at 1.1086 mmt and old crop at 413.9 tmt the pre-report estimated range was 500 tmt-1 mmt
The weekly export sales in million bushels are 40.7 for new crop and 15.2 for old crop and the range was 18.4-36.7.
Soybean planting in Argentina is at 65.5% done according to the Buenos Aires Commodity Exchange.
January soybean futures traded mixed, had its lowest trade of the past four sessions and closed negative with its lowest close of the past seven sessions. Tuesday's high was the highest trade of the past 59 sessions. Resistance is at the $13.50 psychological area, then at $13.53 ½ December high then $13.74 to $13.78 ½ open chart gap in September, then $14.06 the 2013 high. Support starts at $13.25 area, then $13.11 ¼ the December low, then $13.00 psychological area, then $12.96 the 50 day moving average and $12.95 the 100-day moving averages.
Wheat futures today continued a negative week of trading with more new contract lows scored today in all three wheat exchanges. A combination of so-so weekly wheat export sales and very negative charts helped to push wheat futures into new lows.
The Buenos Aires Commodity Exchange today is estimating that the Argentina wheat harvest is 39.9% complete.
The weekly export sales were on the low side for the wheat with the new crop at 372.2 tmt and old crop at 10.7 tmt the pre-report estimated range was 350-550 tmt
The weekly export sales in million bushels are 13.7 for new crop and 0.4 for old crop and the range was 12.9-20.2.
The weekly continuation July Kansas City Wheat chart has major support at $6.50, which is the low for the weeks of April 30, 2012 and May 7, 2012.
Canada is working hard to move their record wheat production. Back on Tuesday they sold 111,173 metric tons of Canada Western Red Spring Wheat to Japan. This wheat is more competitive price-wise than the U.S. Dark Northern Wheat. During the April through November time frame Japan purchases of Canada Western Red Spring Wheat has been 40% larger versus a year ago, while the buying of U.S. Dark Northern Spring Wheat is a third lower than a year ago.
The KC March wheat futures scored a new contract low and closed negative today. Resistance is at $7.00 area, then $7.19 the 100-day moving average, then $7.26 the 50-day moving average. Support is at $6.73 ½ the contract and December low and then the $6.60 area.
Chicago March wheat plummeted today to a new contract low and closed negative. Resistance starts at $6.50 area, then $6.71 the 100-day moving average, then $6.75 the 50-day moving average. Support is at $6.30 ¼ the contract and December low and then the $6.20 area.
The Minneapolis March wheat continued its streak of making new contract lows today and closed negative. The contract has made a new contract low seven of the past nine sessions. Resistance is at $6.85 area, then $7.11 ½ the December high, then $7.26 the 50-day moving average. Support begins at $6.62 ¾ the contract and December low, then the $6.50 area.
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