March 6, 2014
Upcoming agricultural reports to watch for: Friday at 7:30 a.m. is the February non-farm payroll and unemployment rate. Sunday, March 9 is the start of Daylight Savings Time. Monday, March 10 at 11:00 a.m. is the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Monday, March 31 is the Prospective Plantings and the Quarterly Grain Stocks.
Friday morning at 7:30 is the release of the February U.S. non-farm payroll and unemployment rate from the labor department. The trade is looking for approximate 152,000 jobs to be added in February, back in January it was only 113,000 added jobs.
Today's weekly jobless claims were lower than anticipated at 323,000 claims; the trade was looking for around 337,000 claims. The four-week average jobless claims dropped by 2,000 claims to 336,500 claims today. This was 26,000 fewer claims than the previous week.
Corn futures today were able to make new highs for the current move to the upside. Fund buying continues to be the strongest support factor for the corn, especially since they have flipped flop from being net short to net long.
Weekly corn export sales for the week ending February 27 were 1.518 million metric tons (59.76 million bushels) for the old crop and 164,500 metric tons (6.48 million bushels) for the new crop. The pre-report trade's estimated range was 600,000-1.0 million metric tons (23.62-39.37 million bushels).
Corn export sales last week were in week 26 as we are now half way through the old crop marketing year. Last week's sales showed that China cancelled 71,500 metric tons. For the year the largest U.S. corn buyer has been Mexico, closely followed by Japan, third is the unknown classification and then China in fourth place.
May Corn futures traded mostly higher, had its highest trade since September 12 and closed positive today near the session high. Resistance is at $4.92 ½ the March high, then $5.00 area, then $5.02 the 50% retracement of the January Low to the June High. Support is at $4.79 the 200-day moving average, then $4.60 area, then $4.46 the 50 & 100-day moving averages, then $4.38 ¾ the February low, then $4.14 ½ the contract and January Low.
December Corn contract traded mostly higher, made a new high for the move that is the highest since September 30 and closed positive. The contract from the contract low to the March high has rallied 55 cents with most of that upside coming on the January 10 report day 23 ¾ cents. The $5.07 mark is a 50% retracement of the January low back to the June high.
The entire soybean complex closed positive today. The good weekly export sales were price friendly to the entire complex. The lack of large Chinese cancellations, continued good sales, lower South American soybean production estimates and the concern that U.S. supplies will tighten even more have been very price supportive, especially for the old crop.
The Buenos Aires Commodity Exchange today updated the Argentina soybean production from 53 million metric tons (1.947 billion bushels) to 54 million metric tons (1.98 billion bushels). They also estimated the Argentina soybean harvest at about 12 percent complete.
Weekly soybean export sales for the week ending February 27 were 772,700 metric tons (28.39 million bushels) for the old crop and 256,700 metric tons (9.43 million bushels) for the new crop. The pre-report trade's estimated range was 800,000-1.3 million metric tons (29.40-47.77 million bushels).
Soybean export sales for the year has China by far the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans with Mexico a very far second and then Indonesia.
May Soybeans today made a new high for the week, but still are below last Thursday's high and closed positive today with the highest close ever for the contract. Resistance is at $14.45 ½ the February & Contract high. Support starts at $14.25 area, then $14.00 area, then $13.75 area, then $13.50 area, then $13.25 area, then $13.11 the 50-day moving average, $12.91 the 100-day moving average, then $12.81 the 200-day moving average.
November Soybeans today traded mixed, made a new high for the move the highest since September 19 and closed positive. The contract closed above the 100-day moving average for the tenth straight session today. The contract from the contract low to the March high has rallied $1.00 ½. The $11.94 mark is a 50% retracement of the January low back to the June high.
Wheat futures closed positive today with modest strength. There was a lack of fresh news to give outright support to the wheat today. Wheat seemed to have benefited more from the lack of negative news and from positive news for the corn and soybeans.
Weekly wheat export sales for the week ending February 27 were 556,100 metric tons (20.43 million bushels) for the old crop and 44,400 metric tons (1.63 million bushels) for the new crop. The pre-report trade's estimated range was 250,000-750,000 metric tons (9.19-27.56 million bushels).
The breakdown of the old crop wheat sales had hard winter wheat at 10.9 million bushels, hard red spring at 7.3, white at 2.4 and soft red winter a negative 0.2.
For the year the largest buyers of U.S. wheat have been China, Brazil is a close second followed by Mexico and Japan. The soft red wheat has China as the largest buyer and Mexico a distant second. Japan and the Philippines are the largest purchasers of white wheat. Italy easily is the largest buyer of durum wheat. Brazil is the largest buyer of hard red winter wheat followed by Nigeria and Mexico.
Breaking down the different classes of U.S. wheat has the Philippines and Japan the largest buyers of hard red spring wheat
The wheat export sales are in week 39 that means 75% of the old crop marketing year has passed. Usually wheat sales tail off in the final weeks of the marketing year. Today's numbers show that Brazil purchased 93,100 metric tons and China purchased 60,000 metric tons. There were cancellations from Egypt of 52,300 metric tons and Nigeria of 49,300 metric tons.
Kansas City May Wheat futures today traded above the previous two session highs, but still below the spike high made on Monday and closed positive today. Resistance is at $7.20 ¼ the March high, then $7.40 ½ the November high. Support is at $7.09 the 200-day moving average, then $6.81 the 100-day moving average, then $6.80 ½ to $6.79 ¼ Open Gap, then $6.49 the 50-day moving average; $6.25 area, then $6.05 the contract and January Low.
Chicago May Wheat futures made a new high for the move today the highest since December 10 and closed positive. Resistance starts at $6.49 the March high, then $6.65 the 200-day moving average. Support is at $6.33 the 100-day moving average, then $6.20 area, then $6.11 ¼ to $6.05 Open Gap, then $5.95 the 50-day moving average, then $5.75 area, then $5.53 ½ the contract and January low.
The Minneapolis May Wheat today made a new high for the move the highest since December 5 and closed positive. Resistance is at $6.97 ¼ the March high, then the $7.00 area, then $7.28 the 200-day moving average. Support begins at $6.78 the 100-day moving average, then $6.50 area, then $6.36 the 50-day moving average, then $6.15 area, then $5.94 ½ the contract and January low.
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