Average Crop Revenue Election for 2010 in North Dakota "looks good for several crops if we have average yields and projected prices remain," says Dwight Aakre, NDSU Extension farm management specialist.
If wheat averages 36 bushels per acre statewide and the 2010 national marketing year price for all wheat is $4.60 per bushel, there would be an ACRE payment of about $20 per acre.
An ACRE payment of approximately $30 per acre would occur for barley, field peas and sunflowers if state average yields are 56 bushels per acre, 31 bushels per acre and 1,400 pounds per acre, respectively, and if in 2010 the national average marketing year prices are $2.60 per bushel, $5.10 per bushel and $0.147 per pound, respectively.
Flax and lentil acres would be eligible for $40 per acre payments if state average yields are 18 bushels per acre and 1,120 pounds per acre and if national prices are $7.70 per bushel and $0.23 per pound, respectively.
Corn is not expected to generate an ACRE payment in 2010 and canola and soybeans "are on the bubble," Swenson says.
Durum acres should not be enrolled in ACRE, Swenson says, because the opportunity cost of reduced benefits under the marketing assistance loan program "looks to be extreme." County loan rates increase by about $1.50 per bushel for 2010 and range between $6.02 and $6.33 per bushel. These very high loan rates would be reduced by 30% under ACRE.
"A concern with ACRE is the 'if' questions," Swenson says. "Any combination of a crop's state average yield and national average price that equates to revenue less than the state's ACRE revenue guarantee will trigger a payment at the state level. We only can guess what these yields and prices will be. A bad combination for ACRE is high yields and low prices. They will tend to offset each other in regard to determining state revenue and the associated ACRE payment."
You have until June 1 to enroll in ACRE for 2010-2012.
The North Dakota State University Extension Service ACRE Analyzer software, with updated price and yield data, is available at www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement/farm-bill to assist North Dakota and Minnesota producers with the ACRE decision.
NDSU Agriculture Communication