Donned with my winter coat and three blankets wrapped around every exposed part of my body, last Saturday I watched as my daughter's softball team proceeded to snow blow and shovel the field they were about to play on. Last year at this time I was sporting a tank top and a pretty decent tan. Ah… it's Michigan. Love it or hate it, one thing is certain, there's complete uncertainty when it comes to the weather.
After a parched 2012 summer, most farmers were rejoicing at the decent snowfall we had this winter and the early rains this spring – a good drenching to recharge the soils and groundwater reserves. But, hey, enough already! All I can say is we should have plenty of May flowers this year.
What an incredible difference a year makes. At this time last year, a good chunk of acreage had already been planted. This year, we're running a week to 2.5 weeks behind normal, according to Jeff Andresen, Michigan State University associate professor of geography and state climatologist for Michigan.
Last year, we were 4 to 6 weeks ahead of what is typically normal for the state. "The long term forecast is dryer than normal for the southern part of the state for May," Andresen says. "It suggests gradual but real changes in May, when we may ultimately see a breakdown of this upper air pattern that led to all of the abnormally cold and wet weather. The western Upper Peninsula is expecting another two feet of snow yet this week. But, in one to two weeks, I think we will see a significant break from the cold, but not abnormally above either."
The heat may help to dry out flooded areas of the state most prevalent in the west central Lower Michigan – Grand Rapids area.
Coming in to the spring, Andresen says there were two big concerns: 1. A repeat of the unusually early start that came at the cost of much of the state's fruit crop; and 2. Soil moisture levels be following last year's drought, especially for south west Lower Michigan. "The good news is that we had a mild winter early on, followed by a colder than normal temperatures and good precipitation," Andresen says. "Winter is typically our driest season, but we had good recharge over most of the state. Since late March, we look to be in good shape with excess rainfall in west-center Lower Michigan. It's helped to return the soils to normal moisture and in some areas, an insurance policy for the typically dry months of July and August."
The overall season outlook, he says, looks to average out, with warmer than normal temperatures expected for June, July and August.